invincible28, I hope you are not too far out of the money. Based on past past records the banks getting acquired did get good valuation in Malaysia. OSK is one recent example. I dare not put a price this being a public forum and all but I am sure EPF would want to extract maximum from the take over and you can see from the consideration price later. All the best.
马银行投行表示,规模壮大后的马建屋,2014财年的投资回酬(ROE)为11%,价格对账面价值范围在1.3至1.5倍间,合理价格为2.81令吉至3.24令吉。To Muhamad Yazdi: according Maybank investment bank, MBSB should range from RM 2.81 to RM 3.24 after the merger.
Redeagle, no need to know frm a to z. Just need to know how much does MBSB real value. If under-value,it will roket up after merging but if it is already too expensive, you should sell now.
Those who have chased up the price of MBSB last Friday to as high as RM2.64 and do not have the capacity to hold may continue to sell the next two trading days. What should be our options? Firstly, we could join the selling and buy back at lower price latest by Thursday, as the price may go up again by Friday, as those who cannot hold T+3 days would have finished selling by Thursday. This option is quite risky because, if we unload all our MBSB shares but with the intention to buy back and hold MBSB shares until the announcement of next quarterly result, we may not be able to buy back at lower price to make contra gain if the price suddenly shoots up before the close of Thursday.
The second option, for those having holding power and having some cash reserve from recent selling of part of their MBSB holdings, is to let the price goes down without doing anything. Once the price drops to as low as RM2.16, start buying back aggressively. Chances are the next quarterly results would be favourable. Last year, the interim dividend was declared in October. However, for two years before last year, the interim dividends were declared in August. In other words, for the last three years, interim dividends were declared. Normally, if results declared were favourable and dividend yield is attractive, the price of the share would surge.
I believe EPF, as a major shareholder, needs to make capital gains from its recent subscription of MBSB rights issues as well as holding of the mother share in order to pay dividend to EPF contributors. Thus, as minority shareholders, we should make capital gain in due course.
What we are assuming is that the transaction is effected via a transfer of CIMB Islamic Bank (CIMB-i) and RHB Islamic Bank (RHB-i)’s assets across to MBSB in return for new MBSB shares.
Fair value for MBSB? Assuming the above scenario pans out, the BVPS for the enlarged entity works out to be MYR2.16, which in our opinion, forms the floor to MBSB’s share price. Against its current share price of MYR2.46, this would be a downside of about 12%. Against our FY14 ROE estimate of 11.1%, a fair P/BV would be about 1.4x, in our view, which would translate to a fair valueof MYR3.03on the stock, representing an upside of 23% to MBSB’s current share price of MYR2.46. The table below provides for a sensitivity analysis based on a P/BV target rangefrom 1.3x to 1.5x. This in turn translates to a fair value range of MYR2.81 (+14%upside) to MYR3.24 (+32%). We believe there is a trading angle on MBSB. Uncertainties now are pricing and structure of the Islamic banking entities merger. If our scenario does not pan out, MBSB shareholders would still either get bought out or get to exchange their shares for the largest financial institution in Malaysia.The downside risk is of the CIMB-RHB-MBSB merger falling through or the pricing/structure of the deal being significantly different from what we have envisaged.
@ Bintang21.. only 11% ROE? How much ROE for 1st Quarter 2014? Anybody here knows? If half quarter PBT pass rm500bil how much ROE? It's KPi target achievable for 2014? Hope fair value for MBSB higher than $2.80..
Looking at the price chart, the I like the trend based on yesterday's result. The volume is somewhat there coming in late in the day. Today's price movement should shed the light better on how the trend is going to look...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
shlyw
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Posted by shlyw > 2014-07-15 16:57 | Report Abuse
http://www.nanyang.com/node/635121?tid=462