@axecapital2077 just shut up lah. No one wants to follow your advices. You’re not Warren buffet. If you know so much then go invest. What purpose do you have barking here? Won’t improve your portfolio also. Sad life.
Vaccine or not, frontliners still need to wear gloves for yet another 12 to 18 months. Just ask anyone working in glove factories, what's the sales like for the next 24 months.
Vaccine no impact la. We just need patience to ride through overall sector sentiment for now. Current and upcoming performance results will be undeniable over time.
Dannyfly88, spot on, the recent drops just devise by sharks, fundamentally glove still strong as ever. Weather or not vaccines could eliminate covid completely is still a unicorn claim.
i think people many buy loss making to show off. once it turns black then can say, “i foresee this already”. lol. buy profit and obvious will be more profitable later people say “ i also know company always make money”. lol people is weird haha.
Only paper lost. Just hold till sunny days again. No worries. Time to add as the corrections is only temporary. Gloves business is still the best for 2021 fundamentally. It will go up from here...
1. Oversold 12months. Lead time 12months. 2. ASP 3-5% increase and cont uptrend 3. Highly oversold position. Expansion will only catch up on demand. 4. Planning more expansion due to new normal/demand 5. Contact lens div grow +80% YoY 6. Facemask 192m pcs/annum as side business/package buy glove and facemask together rather than divert to other mask producer 7. Against gender discrimination in company 8. Share bonus by early jan credited in acc 9. More div chances in future 10. Production capacity 37bil by end 2021
I think This week and next are Lau Sai time for Gloves counters. Recovery and Bank stocks are very much in Cocaine hyper mode. Opportunity to buy though... not going to be low forever.
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 2): KAF Research said nitrile latex price could well breach US$3,000 per metric ton (pmt) in December, compressing the margins of some glove makers.
The research house’s analyst Nabil Zainoodin said in a note that nitrile latex price, which has more than doubled to US$2,810 pmt from its lowest this year at US$1,300 pmt in April due to tight supply amid the surge in nitrile gloves demand, may continue to rise.
“Looking at the current trajectory, nitrile latex price could well breach US$3,000 pmt in December, surpassing its last peak of US$2,910 pmt in April 2011,” he said.
At US$3,000 pmt for nitrile latex, he estimates the cost to produce 1,000 pieces of nitrile gloves would increase by 70% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to RM120.
“We expect nitrile latex price to continue to rise throughout 2021 and could only ease towards the end of 2022 once suppliers’ capacity expansion projects are completed,” he said.
He said the higher nitrile latex cost will undoubtedly impact nitrile-centric glove makers.
While local manufacturers have shifted product mix towards more nitrile gloves in recent years, Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd remain as the two most nitrile-focused players as their product mixes skew largely towards nitrile gloves at 95% and 80% share, respectively, he said.
“It is uncertain if manufacturers can fully pass on the additional cost to customers. The risk is that the boost to profit margin from operating leverage may reverse drastically if average selling price (ASP) growth were to plateau or contract faster than expected,” he said.
He noted that in recent investor meetings, Hartalega guided for about 45% q-o-q increase in ASP while Kossan’s ASP would increase by about 25% q-o-q next quarter.
“At the current rate, incremental cost outpaced revision in ASP, which inevitably would impact margins,” he said.
He also said the spike in nitrile latex cost is one of the reasons behind his glove sector downgrade from "overweight" to "neutral" in sector report on Nov 18.
“Both Hartalega and Kossan have been downgraded from 'buy' to 'hold' with new target prices (TPs) of RM14.78 and RM6.51 respectively,” he said.
Despite potentially worse impact from higher nitrile latex cost, he reckoned that Hartalega and Kossan are most likely to declare special dividends because their major shareholders have relatively high stakes in the company, at 49% and 47% respectively.
While he is neutral on the sector, he kept Top Glove Corp Bhd at a "buy" (TP: RM8.58) due to its ability to command higher selling prices compared to peers, attractive dividend yield of more than 6% at current price (expect quarterly dividend payment from semi-annual previously) and expectation that the US import ban will be resolved soon.
He also maintained his "buy" call on Supermax Corp Bhd (TP: RM9.57) as it provides the best earnings yield among glove makers, thanks to its own brand manufacturing cum distribution business model, plans to build glove manufacturing plants overseas close to its key customers, as well as expectations that it will be included in the FBM KLCI in December.
At noon break, Top Glove was unchanged at RM6.79, valuing the group at RM53.88 billion. Supermax rose 8 sen or 0.91% to RM8.88, giving it a market capitalisation of RM22.68 billion. Hartalega fell 2 sen or 0.14% to RM14.44, giving it a valuation of RM49.5 billion. Kossan was unchanged at RM6.18, bringing its market capitalisation to RM15.76 billion.
The next few months of the Covid-19 pandemic will be among “the most difficult in the public health history of this nation,” Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Wednesday.
Redfield, speaking at an event hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said that about 90% of hospitals in the country are in “hot zones and the red zones.” He added that 90% of long-term care facilities are in areas with high level of spread.
“So we are at a very critical time right now about being able to maintain the resilience of our health-care system,” Redfield said. “The reality is December and January and February are going to be rough times. I actually believe they’re going to be the most difficult in the public health history of this nation, largely because of the stress that’s going to be put on our health-care system.”
Stay BUY with higher MYR6.80 TP from MYR5.70, 70% upside with c.1% yield. Our TP is based on CY21F P/E of 11.3x – a 20% discount against the peers’ average. Our target P/E is at a discount to reflect Comfort Gloves’ smaller market cap/liquidity to peers. 9MFY21 (Jan) earnings beat expectations on better-than-expected ASPs. After adjusting for higher ASPs, we increase our earnings forecasts and TP.
Earnings beat expectation. Comfort’s 9MFY21 earnings of MYR149.5m were above expectations, as it makes up 97% of our FY21F full-year net profit estimate. Comparison against consensus is not available, as the stock is under-researched. The positive deviation was due to better-than expected ASPs. In line with the gloves industry price uptrends, we believe Comfort has increased its monthly ASPs by 5-10%.
9MFY21 net profit soared 552% YoY. Revenue grew 69% YoY in 9MFY21 to MYR627.5m due to an increase in sales volumes and significantly better ASPs. Comfort also enjoyed better economies of scale, which caused EBITDA margins to increase to 34.9% (9MFY20: 12.7%).
3QFY21 net profit improved 111% QoQ (>10x YoY). Revenue grew 40% QoQ (+106% YoY) in 3QFY21 to MYR276.7m. This was due to an increase in sales volumes and much better ASPs. EBITDA margin improved to 45.3% vs 2QFY21’s 32.4% and 3QFY20’s 11.9%.
Prospects. Comfort believes the emphasis on hygiene and sanitation will not be reduced in the event a vaccine becomes generally available. Hence, it plans to expand capacity by 10% in 4QFY21 to capture the rising demand for gloves. On the nitrile butadiene shortage, the company has acknowledged the global shortage situation. It said its specialty premium gloves made from latex are equally in demand as compared to nitrile ones.
Higher TP of MYR6.80. We have increased FY21F-23F earnings by 63- 103% to reflect the higher ASPs – in line with the industry trend. The higher TP is in tandem with better earnings estimates. Our target P/E has been lowered to 11.3x from 18x – in sync with the latest sector P/E.
Maintain BUY. In the near term, we expect Comfort to register a stronger set of results in 3QFY21 in tandem with the higher ASP trend in the industry. In the long run, we believe the company will be a beneficiary of the long term uptrend in global gloves consumption.
Risks include worse-than-expected gloves demand after the COVID-19 pandemic ends, lower-than-expected sales volumes/USD, and higher-than estimated raw material prices.
Comfort Investor Relations team please do some work - go and give all the broking houses updates about your company. Only RHB currently covering the stock. Need to go and build relationships with all the other banks. Need more people to know about Comfort otherwise will never move. It's a good company and undervalued (trading at lower PE than lousy Rubberex). Overshadowed by Supermax and Topglove.
TP 6.8 vs 3.8 now is like 79% increase. WTF. I am happy at 5. But who knows, like everything else in stocks, when the wind blows here, it will uptick pass 6. Like the Tradeview commentator said, all the bad news/shits have been thrown at the gloves sectors and it can't get any worse than this. Add again... shit lot now...
In a nutshell, the glove sector despite this period of negativity is a sector we as Malaysians should be very proud of. We have no FAANG corporations in our country, but we have these glove giants.
So if you are in a dilemma whether to hold glove stocks, I just have this to say - "It cant get any worst than this". Vaccines, Covid-19 cluster, investigation / fine by Labour Department, Customs Detention, windfall tax rumours, pretty much anything you can think of has been thrown at the sector. The glove sector will survive just as they had done so for the past 30 years. There is no fundamental or structural change to the companies. It is because of negative headlines, local funds who has met their KPI for the year and not taking positions to support the sector, and retail investors who lack the confidence to invest in the glove sector contributed to the weak share price movement. When all these negativity blows over, local funds have to chase yields and returns, retail investors become bold again, the glove stocks are the most attractive to keep in your portfolio. Hopefully this help clear some of your doubts.
Comfort is currently trading at 14PE. The best value amongst all gloves. Even at the drop a week ago, when supermx went to RM7, it was trading at 15PE. Supermx bounced back up soon after. All comfort needs now is a catalyst, and it’s ready to spring.
It is so obvious that a syndicate is collecting Comfort shares at low prices. Once he is done he will push the prices up to sell. This is only a waiting game. Haha!
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Posted by IMwhatIM > 2020-12-01 17:49 | Report Abuse
We must thank the syndicate for doing the work too... quite hard work, really. And end of the day many people will make money from the counter.