KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 11): JP Morgan has reinstated coverage of Top Glove Corp Bhd, but with an underweight recommendation and a fair value of RM3.50 — that's about half its current market price of RM6.90 — as it sees the passing of a supernormal growth cycle for glove makers, in anticipation of a huge oversupply in the market, as glove demand decelerates in tandem with the pace of testing for Covid-19.
Besides the world's largest rubber glove maker, it also initiated coverage of its closest peers Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, also with UW ratings.
It gave a fair value of RM8.50 for Hartalega, down 38% from its last traded price of RM13.72, and a fair value of RM3.80 to Kossan, which is 30% less than its closing price of RM5.39 today.
Its analysts Jeffrey Ng and YY Cheah, in a note to clients today, said they expect glove prices to weaken in the second half of next year.
"Global testing trends have also plateaued, which ought to ease current supply tightness. JP Morgan’s proprietary fund flow analysis indicates the glove sector is a crowded trade, implying significant downside momentum. Near-term concerns on rising costs, plus long-term overcapacity risk, spell downside risks. Once Malaysia lifts the short selling ban, downward pressure could be amplified," they wrote.
JP Morgan pegs these glove makers' fair value at up to half their market price, says supernormal cycle is over...
JP Morgan pegs these glove makers' fair value at up to half their market price, says supernormal cycle is over
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 11): JP Morgan has reinstated coverage of Top Glove Corp Bhd, but with an underweight recommendation and a fair value of RM3.50 — that's about half its current market price of RM6.90 — as it sees the passing of a supernormal growth cycle for glove makers, in anticipation of a huge oversupply in the market, as glove demand decelerates in tandem with the pace of testing for Covid-19.
Besides the world's largest rubber glove maker, it also initiated coverage of its closest peers Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, also with UW ratings.
It gave a fair value of RM8.50 for Hartalega, down 38% from its last traded price of RM13.72, and a fair value of RM3.80 to Kossan, which is 30% less than its closing price of RM5.39 today.
Its analysts Jeffrey Ng and YY Cheah, in a note to clients today, said they expect glove prices to weaken in the second half of next year.
THE DEMAND FOR GLOVES ALREADY PEAKED....THE NEXT STAGE IS FALLING DEMAND, OVERSUPPLY & FALLING PROFIT & SHARE PRICE LOH...!!
RUN B4 TOO LATE LOH...!!
Its analysts Jeffrey Ng and YY Cheah, in a note to clients today, said they expect glove prices to weaken in the second half of next year.
"Global testing trends have also plateaued, which ought to ease current supply tightness. JP Morgan’s proprietary fund flow analysis indicates the glove sector is a crowded trade, implying significant downside momentum. Near-term concerns on rising costs, plus long-term overcapacity risk, spell downside risks. Once Malaysia lifts the short selling ban, downward pressure could be amplified," they wrote.
In particular, they noted that 13 of 17 highly populated nations’ testing trends have started to trend downwards from their peaks since the end of September. This, they wrote, may be an early indication that glove prices too have peaked, and similarly for producers’ profits and share prices.
Get ready for the coming big upside potential of insas in view of its growth potential, value rerating and big improvement in financial stock business mah....!!
Jump in & buy big b4 too late loh....!!
INSAS IS A MISUNDERSTOOD STOCK LOH....!!
IF U LOOK BACK AT INSAS FOR PAST 10 YEARS, IT HAS BEEN CREATING VALUE NON STOCK ALMOST EVERY YEAR WITH INCREASING SHAREHOLDER FUND MAH...!!
THATS THE REASONS WHY ITS NTA GROW FROM RM 1.00 SAY 10 YEARS AGO TO ALMOST RM 4.00- 5.00 AS AT NOW MAH...!!
INSAS BIGGEST WINNER LIKE INARI, CONTRIBUTE MORE THAN RM 1.4B MARKET CAP & SMALLER WINNER LIKE SENGENIC CAN CONTRIBUTE MORE THAN RM 60M LOH...!!
SMALL INVESTMENT LIKE OMESTI & DGSB ARE DOING EXTREMELY WELL LOH...!!
INSAS IS LIKE BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY BUSINESS MODEL LOH...!!
BUT UNLIKE BERSHIRE, ACTUALLY INSAS IS BETTER IT PAYS DIVIDEND BUT BERSHIRE DON'T PAY LOH...!!
THOSE INVESTING IN INSAS IS GETTING COMPOUND GROWTH RETURN AVERAGING 10 TO 12% PA EVERY YEAR LOH....!!
IF U BUY INSAS NOW U R PAYING RM 0.865 FOR A FAIR VALUE OF RM 4.00 IN INSAS LOH....!!
A GREAT INVESTMENT LOH...!!
BUT MOST EXCITING PART THIS INSAS IS GROWING WITH GOOD PROFITABILITY MAH!
Just look at the amazing growth track record of value creation of insas for the past 10 yrs
Sept 2020- Nta Rm 2.75
June 2019- Nta Rm 2.62
Dec 2018- Nta Rm 2.54
Dec 2017..Nta rm 2.49
Dec 2016 ...Nta Rm 2.18
Dec 2015..Nta Rm 1.96
Dec 2014..Nta rm 1.82
Dec 2013 nta..rm 1.71
Dec 2012 nta ..rm 1.51
Dec 2011 nta..rm 1.38
Dec 2010 nta...rm 1.22
Dec 2009 nta ..rm 1.14
INSAS IS GROWING STRONGLY MAH....ONLY THOSE PEOPLE DO NOT UNDERSTAND BERKSHIRE HATHWAY BUSINESS MODEL ARE SAYING INSAS HATHWAY BUSINESS MODEL ARE LOUSY LOH...!!
BUT INSAS BUSINESS MODEL ARE SAME SAME MAH, IN FACT INSAS GENERATE COMPOUND EARNINGS OF 12% PA SAME SAME AS BERKSHIRE WOH..!!...HOW COULD BE BERKSHIRE VERY GOOD & INSAS VERY BAD LEH ??
Warrant's List. All you need to do is look at the Expiry Dates & Exercise Prices and compare with the Share Price of the ACTUAL ASSET (The SHARE) & THE ANALYSYTS TARGET PRICE.
'Contracts For Difference' are issued on INDEXES & CURRENCY World over.
Only Futures & Options are issued on Equity. There is a difference. In Futures & Options the Underlying Asset (The Share) is actually delivered. In CFD's it's a Cash Settlement.
Like a Casino. Does the Casino Pay you in Cards ? Spades, Clubs, Hearts, Diamonds ?
JPMorgan analysis is laughable like a Form 3 essay writing competition. Must be under a lot of pressure to report targeted profit by year end, and hope to press down the sector, in order to collect cheap and then push up. US market is directionless hovering around 30,000 points probably till Biden took office in Jan 2021, recycling among vaccine, unemployment, stimulus news.
<1> Its analysts Jeffrey Ng and YY Cheah, in a note to clients today, said they expect glove prices to weaken in the second half of next year >>> The glove manufacturers already received orders through Apr 2022 and with 50% downpayment in some cases. The stockpile is critically low and whatever the user received today is barely enough to support daily activities, while it will take quite sometime to replenish the stockpile.
<2> In particular, they noted that 13 of 17 highly populated nations’ testing trends have started to trend downwards from their peaks since the end of September. >>> This must be a joke, the record high cases seen in most part of the world including Malaysia which is set to surpass China in matter of days, is it not because of higher number of testing? or is it by telepathic guess-work?
<3> Once Malaysia lifts the short selling ban, downward pressure could be amplified >>> How do you know when IDSS will be reintroduced?
<4> While it is hard to measure the potential oversupply, we can take a leaf from the crude palm oil industry which saw a decade of oversupply post a supernormal cycle in the early 2000s >>> Oil palm is alternative to soy oil while glove is primary PPE and there is no substitute, and further to that, glove is on the rising horizon due to hygiene and health awareness.
...................... and we can go on and on to rebuke each and every single point.
Pfizer Vaccine Cleared in U.S., a Landmark in Covid-19 Fight
Pfizer Inc. gained emergency U.S. authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine on Friday, completing an unprecedented scientific sprint that could eventually help bring an end to a pandemic that has killed nearly 300,000 Americans
TopGlove 9.8% PBB 9.3% TNB 6.8% Hartalega 6.7% MBB 6.1% so on and so forth
And, that is how you should diversify your portfolio. Not all-in one counter or sector, or everyday yelling buy, buy, buy or sell, sell, sell like a gambling den.
And do you think JPMorgan would be so kind to ask you to run first so they would incur big losses and kena "goreng-sotong"? Year end window dressing coming already, probably 1 week before Christmas and New Year holiday?
<< Cash Only >> Thanks for sharing. Many countries are not only worried but frightened with short of medical grade gloves and this situation will persist at least for next couple years. The analysts should have such info with them.
Vaccine approved only for emergency use, not all the country will follow United States. It still got some risk. Health care product like glove and face mask still can survive.
STAY ON TRACK WITH INSAS, U DEFINITELY WILL MAKE MONIES MAH...!!
FUNDAMENTALLY VERY SOUND MAH....!!
JUST BUY LOH...!
Get ready for the coming big upside potential of insas in view of its growth potential, value rerating and big improvement in financial stock business mah....!!
Jump in & buy big b4 too late loh....!!
INSAS IS A MISUNDERSTOOD STOCK LOH....!!
IF U LOOK BACK AT INSAS FOR PAST 10 YEARS, IT HAS BEEN CREATING VALUE NON STOCK ALMOST EVERY YEAR WITH INCREASING SHAREHOLDER FUND MAH...!!
THATS THE REASONS WHY ITS NTA GROW FROM RM 1.00 SAY 10 YEARS AGO TO ALMOST RM 4.00- 5.00 AS AT NOW MAH...!!
INSAS BIGGEST WINNER LIKE INARI, CONTRIBUTE MORE THAN RM 1.4B MARKET CAP & SMALLER WINNER LIKE SENGENIC CAN CONTRIBUTE MORE THAN RM 60M LOH...!!
SMALL INVESTMENT LIKE OMESTI & DGSB ARE DOING EXTREMELY WELL LOH...!!
INSAS IS LIKE BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY BUSINESS MODEL LOH...!!
BUT UNLIKE BERSHIRE, ACTUALLY INSAS IS BETTER IT PAYS DIVIDEND BUT BERSHIRE DON'T PAY LOH...!!
THOSE INVESTING IN INSAS IS GETTING COMPOUND GROWTH RETURN AVERAGING 10 TO 12% PA EVERY YEAR LOH....!!
IF U BUY INSAS NOW U R PAYING RM 0.865 FOR A FAIR VALUE OF RM 4.00 IN INSAS LOH....!!
A GREAT INVESTMENT LOH...!!
BUT MOST EXCITING PART THIS INSAS IS GROWING WITH GOOD PROFITABILITY MAH!
Just look at the amazing growth track record of value creation of insas for the past 10 yrs
Sept 2020- Nta Rm 2.75
June 2019- Nta Rm 2.62
Dec 2018- Nta Rm 2.54
Dec 2017..Nta rm 2.49
Dec 2016 ...Nta Rm 2.18
Dec 2015..Nta Rm 1.96
Dec 2014..Nta rm 1.82
Dec 2013 nta..rm 1.71
Dec 2012 nta ..rm 1.51
Dec 2011 nta..rm 1.38
Dec 2010 nta...rm 1.22
Dec 2009 nta ..rm 1.14
INSAS IS GROWING STRONGLY MAH....ONLY THOSE PEOPLE DO NOT UNDERSTAND BERKSHIRE HATHWAY BUSINESS MODEL ARE SAYING INSAS HATHWAY BUSINESS MODEL ARE LOUSY LOH...!!
BUT INSAS BUSINESS MODEL ARE SAME SAME MAH, IN FACT INSAS GENERATE COMPOUND EARNINGS OF 12% PA SAME SAME AS BERKSHIRE WOH..!!...HOW COULD BE BERKSHIRE VERY GOOD & INSAS VERY BAD LEH ??
Bahrain approved the registration of the Sinopharm Group Co Ltd. vaccine against the coronavirus, about a week after the United Arab Emirates registered the Chinese-made vaccine.
“Results from Phase III clinical trials showed an 86% efficacy rate, a 99% seroconversion rate of neutralizing antibody and 100% effectiveness in preventing moderate and severe cases of Covid-19,” the National Health Regulatory Authority said in a statement Sunday.
Bahrain has participated in phase III clinical trials, in which more than 7,700 volunteers signed up. Bahrain had previously authorized the emergency use of the vaccine, which was provided to frontline workers in contact with coronavirus patients.
The UAE registered the Sinopharm vaccine after finding it had a 86% efficacy rate, paving the way for a full public use and allowing for a re-opening of the Gulf nation’s economy.
Egypt plans to start the process of inoculation against the coronavirus after receiving the first shipments of Sinopharm vaccine.
Govt to increase Covid-19 vaccine purchase to cover 60%-70% of M'sians — PM
The government has plans to increase its purchase of the Covid-19 vaccine to cover the immunisation needs of about 60%-70% of Malaysians compared with 30% currently.
Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said this was because some nations had purchased doses exceeding their population.
“As for Malaysia, we have already got 30%. I have instructed Health Minister Datuk Seri Dr Adham Baba along with [Science, Technology and Innovation Minister] Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar to negotiate and increase it from 30% to 60% or 70%.
Do you know that if retailers start disposing glove stocks, who stand to benefit the most? Bank stocks. This is because many retailers who bought and hold glove stocks are holding on for strong fundamental and the same guy would have bought banking stocks if not for the gloves. These banks would want more bad news for gloves, so that retailers will switch their portfolio to banking stocks. Imagine billions of stock worth money suddenly switch to banks. Their stock price will jump up. Now you know why there is a thorough effort to create bad news for glove industry especially the big brother Top Glove?
COVID-19 vaccine is permissible for Muslim use, preservation of life is key consideration: MUIS
SINGAPORE: The Islamic Religious Council of Singapore (MUIS) said on Sunday (Dec 13) that it "holds the position that a COVID-19 vaccine is permissible for Muslim use".
"We would advise and encourage Muslims to be vaccinated once it is available and when the vaccine has been medically authorised as safe and effective, as this is a basic necessity to protect lives in the context of a global pandemic," said MUIS.
The council made its religious position on the vaccine known in a media release.
It said that the objectives of introducing a COVID-19 vaccine and the processes involved in producing vaccines are "largely aligned to established Islamic principles and values".
Islamic jurisprudence places great importance on the sanctity and safety of human life and the protection of livelihoods, it said.
Efforts to protect human life from any form of danger and harm, such as the development of vaccines, are therefore highly encouraged in Islam, it added.
A recent survey of medical staff involved in the fight against COVID-19 found the shortage is becoming a serious issue nationwide. Almost 60 percent of those who responded said that they were running out.
Some facilities have resorted to using gloves that are not medical grade, but Professor Sugawara Erisa, an infection control expert at Tokyo Healthcare University, says that's putting people at risk.
"Sending frontline workers in without medical-grade gloves is like sending them to war without ammunition," she says.
Whoever claim ASP is dropping, glove is oversupply, please leave your contact, how much you have in hand and how much you are willing to let go including lead time because I have inquiries from overseas and willing to pay 50% upfront (and additional premium/bonus for shorter delivery). It's better than trading glove stock.
Common sense lah, Covid cases are shooting up and number of people drop death are increasing day by day and this is only the beginning of winter. Hospitals are turning away non critical procedures/surgeries. Medical grade glove already running out in many countries. By the way, glove market span over 195 countries. The annual consumption is 350 billion, thus whether or not they wear glove for vaccination, there is little impact. 10% annual demand growth is expected as evident from past few years record, thus glove manufacturers are playing catching up and it may be another 3 years or more.
those without holding power....institution & investment bank will thank you....especially JPMorgan, let you sell and collect from you....good luck guys
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
NPRA1985
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Posted by NPRA1985 > 2020-12-12 02:40 | Report Abuse
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jp-morgan-pegs-these-glove-makers-fair-value-half-their-market-price-says-supernormal-cycle?type=malaysia