Halite, the key question to ask is why they need to do the expansion? Purely for growth or force to do it? If force to do it in order to comply with certain requirement, then you better pray refinery industry is good. If refinery industry going downhill and yet petronm need to dump in so much money to keep going, things will be disasterous. That's all from me. Good luck.
Ingram, May be you will find it hard to understand what I actually want to convey to you. No one can force you to kill yourself when you still have a chance to live well. 14B is not play play...
Ingram: Halite, the key question to ask is why they need to do the expansion? Purely for growth or force to do it? If force to do it in order to comply with certain requirement, then you better pray refinery industry is good. If refinery industry going downhill and yet petronm need to dump in so much money to keep going, things will be disasterous. That's all from me. Good luck.
Why there are so many sifu, whether in hengyuan or petronm forum, who are scare to park their money here, but showing so much interest here. Very funny mentality.
Price is determined by supply demand. Not magical earning without any clue whether it is sustainable or not for a long term. Nestle selling at RM100 and Hengyuan Selling at 15 is a good proof. Price can be manipulated. A strong promotions to arouse the sentiment will see the herd mentalty to come into effect . You don't find it here but quite obvious in hengyuan forum now. But I still believe, in the long run, market is a weighing machine. So I only wish I had made a right decision chosen petronm as my long term investment
Dear ahseng n fren.. You wont regreted whenever you decided to park your hatd earning monies in petronm or heng.. You..other..n..i. have experiences through this 2 counters..i had made monies since last year. Only patience people will reward alot like you n other.
If you are interested to know more about me you will find last year I was a strong supporter of both hengyuan and peyronm. I feel no shame to tell you i had made quite a lot of money from both of these 2 investments, enough to allow me to live well for many years if the market crashes tomorrow I like to keep a stock i have invested forever if I don't see the reason that I should sell. Then why I let go hengyuan but still keeping petronm. starting afresh this year with a new entry price to gauge the next performance of this counter for 2018. The reasons are straightforward and simple 1.i believe explosive earning can move the price sky high but never it is sustainable. So it is not something look real to me. 2. Kyy and OTB involvement but when they start selling game is half over 3. Excessive promotion with sky high TP 4. No IB coverage 5. The old saying :when auntie in the market are saying it is good then the stock must has gone crazy 6. When the mother share price is too high IB going to lose money in the CW there issued
I may be wrong but I choose to play safe to protect my limited fund that makes me live well
So I adopted a strategy as described below
HENGYUAN IS MY GIRL FRIEND, KEEP IN THE CAR. PETRONM IS MY WIFE, KEEP AT HOME
i am just expressing what i am thinking no intention to persuade you to sell hengyuan buy petronm I may be wrong because market price is not determined by good or bad, it is determined by supply and demand. if not you can't find counters selling at 100x PE still price rocketing everyday. anything can happen in the share market if the operator want it happens it is not strange or impossible petronm drops to 10 but hengyuan shoots to 100 or petronm shoot to 100 and hengyuan goes back to 10. we can't fight with the operators, they are 100 time more powerful than us , but what we can do is to do a right thing with our limited knowledge telling us it is right and wait for the market to prove us right
good. you have a good plan, follow it strictly with a strong heart you will not be defeated by your own distress or fall prey to the market herb mentality effect
mind to share your view , I believe many here are hoping to read your comments and how you look at petronm now. I also hope to learn more from you. thanks
Eps is all time high and some still doubt the earnings record of the company and management, wonder what more they want from this dividend paying and debt free company ??
PE is reasonable and past 5 quarters were registering eps about 40 cts each, isn't this show company is ready to look at the investment of the expansion plan ?
Any further drop in price will make the pe getting so cheap to buy more by value investors and those cash strong players.
good ! many have voiced their intention to enter when the price drops below 11 this is a good indication that many have agreed that Petronm is a great company to keep for long term.
let's pray tomorrow it will drop more , so that we can collect more for bigger gain later .
This is called Honda challenging spirit, dare to accept some paper loss first before you are rewarded with a bigger return later.
this is also called the cold-eye sifu spirit , never buy a stock that you dare not buy more when other want to sell a good stock cheap to you.
let's us do a very simple mathematics. you have 10k shares bought at RM13, you wish to make a 20% gain , then you sell at 15.6, so you gain is RM26,000.00 ( RHB TP is 16.2)
now Q4 is not up to expectation , and you top up another 10K at RM 11. now you have 20k at the cost of RM12. you wish to make 20%, then you sell at 14.4, what is your gain now ? it is RM48000.00
what happen if you dare to top up another 10k at RM10 or may be 9.00, I leave the mathematics to you I believe surely you can calculate better than me .
Aseng sifu : you need more money to make bigger return
my advice: never sailang , do it slowly , the return is more than you want
if you think 10k is too big for you , then you may start with 1 k or 0.5k the principle: never sailang , do it slowly , the return is more than you want
I don't do it for every counter invested , I only dare to do it for petronm
why ?
I do not need an professor to tell me the EPS for the next coming quarter is around 40cents I do not need a professor to tell me Petronm has more free cash for the next quarter I do not need a professor to tell me Petronm has no debt for the next quarter I do not need a professor to tell me petronm will pay me more dividend , may be 30 cents.
Anywau i am confuse why is petronm a good stock. Its profit is reduced. It is going for an upgrade which i assume eould.involve a shutdown. Wouldnt it make more sense to buy after next quarter report to see are they able to make profit?
Most of the investor have understood and agreed petronm is a good buy for long term. Do not spread wrong information. There is no shut down, no businessman so stupid spend 14B to shut down for 2 years. What is the current market capitalization of petronm? Just around 3B and spend 14B to kill himself. Only idiot will use such stupid information to mislead people and only the idiots will believe
Hengyuan has debt 1.3 B and borrowed another 1.7 B to upgrade, nobody talk or worry about the shut down. Petronm doing an expansion to improve the earning 6 folds. So much worry and talking about the shut down What sort of logical thinking is this? You are misled by my good friends and help to mislead others here.
the first principle of value investing is " NEVER LOSE MONEY " and the out come is "big win" if your investing principle is " BIG AND FAST MONEY " . Many a time your outcome is "lose big"
Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbo t” prices of analysts or the opinions of media pundits. Instead, we simply believe that if the businesses of the investees are successful (as we believe most will be) our investments will be successful as well. Sometimes the payoffs to us will be modest; occasionally the cash register will ring loudly.
The connection of value-building to retained earnings that I’ve just described will be impossible to detect in the short term. Stocks surge and swoon, seemingly untethered to any year-to-year buildup in their underlying value. Over time, however, Ben Graham’s oft-quoted maxim proves true: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, however, it becomes a weighing machine.
(shared by my good friend stockraider at Hengyuan)
If you are interested to know more about me you will find last year I was a strong supporter of both hengyuan and petronm. I started selling 20% of my hengyuan at 9.00, 40% at 12.00 and the last 40% at 15.80. I sold 50% of my petronm at 14.70 and the remaining 50% carried forward to this year at a new entry price of 13.00. Early last month I topped up more at 11.00 and manage to average it down to 12.00 i have no hesitation to average it down to 11.00 if somebody want to sell cheap to me . that it what i called it we need more money to make it big and possible based on value investing . I am not crazy, i am very clear what i am doing . I am just following my action plan strictly, . I don't do it for every counter invested , I only dare to do it for petronm why ?
I do not need an professor to tell me the EPS for the next coming quarter is around 40cents I do not need a professor to tell me Petronm has more free cash for the next quarter I do not need a professor to tell me Petronm has no debt for the next quarter I do not need a professor to tell me petronm will pay me more dividend , may be 30 cents.
do not fight with the IB , you can't win them. you do not have the resources to play with them . just do what is right to do. most important do not mislead others to play the game with you that you can not win. shares trading is the rich man game , only the rich man can determine the outcome. KYY is a good example ,I bought a lot of hengyuan , sailang with all my available cash, because I know he can move the market
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ingram
11 posts
Posted by ingram > 2018-02-24 12:47 | Report Abuse
Halite, the key question to ask is why they need to do the expansion? Purely for growth or force to do it? If force to do it in order to comply with certain requirement, then you better pray refinery industry is good. If refinery industry going downhill and yet petronm need to dump in so much money to keep going, things will be disasterous. That's all from me. Good luck.