@myong oredi explained.. Refineries carries huge inventories of crude that was bought during high px.. But the gasoline obtained from the refineries are sold at curent low petrol px
Petron or as a matter of fact any other stocks, one has to identify their key attributes and investment merits that one believes will transform it into a great investment over time. Daily or regular analysis, while constructive may be cause 'paralysis' of thoughts. Every business is dynamic in nature and hence its important to have a combination of competent management together with relevant business model to forge ahead. I am not suggesting that Petron fits all the above and its up to each individual to decide. The performance of PetDagang is a good precedent (although their business model is not entirely similar) and if Petron can merely match their execution going forward, it should be promising. Over analysing is a bit like growing a 100 feet tree and watching its progress on a daily basis. The more relevant consideration would be selecting the correct seedling coupled with periodic observation. Good luck.
Refer back to 2015 result, the crude oil price keep dropping but petron able to generate more eps 20 sen each quarter except 2015 Q4 low EPS due long period of maintenance
from what I discovered so far, crack spread is the best indicator since it measured the spread between your input cost (crude oil) and output price (diesel, gasoline etc.). although shown as one data, it has more than 2 variables as each commodity has its own supply and demand dynamics
this 2 day's sharp drop in crude oil is mainly because of EIA weekly data showed huge increase in crude supply relative to analyst expectations. but if you look at gasoline (petrol) inventories, the drawdown (not oversupply) is bigger than analyst expectations. that's why gasoline futures actually didn't drop as much as crude oil futures and thus the crack spread is widening these two days.
it's worthwhile monitoring different data instead of just crude oil
let them flush, last time ekovest-wb I also kena flushed from 1.30 down to 1, now it's more than 2.50 adjusted. patience do rewards when it's a good counter
Don't panic guys, one day crude price down wouldn't affect Petronm. Ytd avg still at usd55 vs usd51 in 4q16. Avg crack spread still higher qoq, I still believe coming quarter results will be making rm100m profit.
Separately, I found one of the crack spread for Ron95 gasoline which is relevant to Petronm (Asia, or the best is SG crack spread is more relevant) in this link. While it came off from the peak but still higher compared to 4q16.
Actuall all the crude oil over supply is a week old date , and Saudi already cut production more than they promised ... next week hope to see the decline in supply
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
LowProfile
219 posts
Posted by LowProfile > 2017-03-09 13:12 | Report Abuse
wa lao why you all buy la.... should sell it now ler before it drops further!!!