Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-16 17:29 | Report Abuse

Yep, actually it’s better to not even give dividend. Instead use the excess cash to buy back shares or invest in the high return business. How many business in BURSA can earn high ROE and net profit growing at more than 10% CAGR over 9 years? I don’t think business value can change so much in just 1 day after election. Clearly there is a manic depressive Mr market that is looking at short term outlook. Malaysia in 3 years time will still need even more rail transport, more water meters for new homes, more water infrastructure to feed more citizens and business, more hospital to cure the sick, and I think GKent stand to benefit from all these.

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-16 17:30 | Report Abuse

I think the management is very wise to buy back shares when price is below intrinsic value. It is very good for those staying shareholder. For those selling, good luck on your next share lol.

Posted by William Choong > 2018-11-16 18:27 | Report Abuse

Patient

Posted by SHQuah > 2018-11-16 18:53 | Report Abuse

If GrahamNewman is the board of directors of Gkent. Company can perform better.

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-16 19:47 | Report Abuse

haha you flatter me, I only know how to be investor, don't know how to run construction business. GKENT management knows how much the company is worth, and is buying back a significant sum of shares. It is like paying 50 cents and get 1 dollar. I like to be associated with this kind of smart management. Remember, short term, market is a voting machine, long term, market is a weighing machine.

Posted by SHQuah > 2018-11-16 21:17 | Report Abuse

Got share buy back to again.

Posted by rielza > 2018-11-17 09:23 | Report Abuse

Agreed with Graham Newman. For those who still keep this share, be patient..

Posted by TopAnalysis > 2018-11-17 14:35 | Report Abuse

Can buy now？ Last time i buy at 1.3 and cut loss at 1.25 and drop all the way to 1

Posted by zhongee > 2018-11-17 19:41 | Report Abuse

wait until 1.03-1.06, sapu all the way to average down.

Posted by SHQuah > 2018-11-18 08:23 | Report Abuse

If company could SBB most of the loose shares from open market, remaining all the strong share holder like me, then the share price can go up slowly. Please join me and form a strong Gkent faithful team. We need good team work.

Posted by RainT > 2018-11-18 12:20 | Report Abuse

No matter share buy back , cash rich , low pe or what ....

GKENT still in downtrend

Posted by RainT > 2018-11-18 12:22 | Report Abuse

Problem is how much GKENT can support to buy back ....

When is the turning point for buy back so that the balance of shareholders only left strong shareholders only ....

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-18 13:42 | Report Abuse

share buy back is not only for supporting the price. actually the more it drop, the better for the company because it can buy back even cheaper. It is as though you are buying a car, last time you can buy 1 Merc for 250k, now got offer 10 same Merc for 50k, you cry or you laugh? If you buy for long term, why do you care downtrend or uptrend. Look at the business. It is like playing football, players look at the field, not the scoreboard.

Posted by mrinvestor12 > 2018-11-18 13:43 | Report Abuse

what to do during times like these ... https://www.mrinvestor12.com/2018/11/what-should-investors-do-during-times.html

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-18 13:44 | Report Abuse

When the business results is good, automatically will have people start noticing and start to chase the price up. Then those shareholders who bought cheap can start to unload. That's why investor should focus on the business result and not the share price. Isn't that simple?

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-18 13:47 | Report Abuse

But if those who can wait short term only and like the thrill of losing money, casino has better entertainment value.

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-18 14:01 | Report Abuse

My car example needs abit more explanation. The assumption is the investor must know the real value of the car. The reason seller that is selling so low may be due to distressed situation, maybe he needs cash urgently, or suddenly did not like Merc and like BMW better, whatever his reason that is not tied with the rational value of the car. But the real investor knows the Merc is worth at least 200k a piece, and now he can buy so much cheaper, why wouldn't he be happy? How to assess a company value is up to the skill of the investor and how much he is willing to put in effort to find out the correct method and research the data. Once the homework is done and you found a stock so undervalued and you are confident on your analysis, then just buy and wait for durian to drop. lol

Posted by commonsense > 2018-11-18 14:21 | Report Abuse

Hi Graham,

Whats your PAT target for FY18 and FY19 given that the PDP fees for LRT 3 is replaced with fixed revenue contract? And with the completion of LRT3 being delayed to 2024 instead of 2020.

I think most investors are worried that the margins from the new arrangement would be a lot lower than what was expected before. The PDP offers Gkent-MRCB a 6% management fee with minimal working capital needed. Where else the current arrangement would means that the maximum Revenue that Gkent-MRCB can get will be RM16.6bil but now they have to invest in the working capital needed for the construction which might effect their cash balance going forward.

And given that the completion is now delayed to 2024 instead of 2020, whatever remaining balance outstanding will need to be spread over 5 years (from 2019 to 2024) instead of the initial 2 years. This would means lower revenue and profit if compared to what was achieved in 1Q and 2Q 18.

I am still not clear how much is exactly the remaining contract value because from my understanding RM16.6bil is the max that the govt will pay (inclusive of works that have been done). Maybe you can clarify on this as well?

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-18 15:25 | Report Abuse

hi Commonsense, I think either model of the PDP works fine for GKent. I have no idea of the details of the contract so what I say is just speculation. But overall, I think the fixed price model will probably contribute more towards PAT than revenue, and I’m a big fan of profit than revenue. In terms of delaying the project delivery, it could reduce the PAT till 2024, but meanwhile the company could have clinched other projects that would more than compensate the lost of profit from this project alone. Fixed price model could also mean the PDP will need to bear cost overruns, but GKent has a good track record in good budgeting so I will assume it will exercise prudence in this regard. Meanwhile, the PH government just need some time to settle the gov debt. Once it is done, I think malaysia will get more infrastructure projects in the future. Just go and look at population distribution of Malaysia, we will need a lot more rail and houses in the next 5-10 years, and the time to plan for these infrastructure is now.

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-18 15:28 | Report Abuse

Btw I can hardly forecast PAT for any company next year or the next quarter for that matter. The price now precludes me from needing to do very detailed analysis. Even if the company stagnates, I think it is still good value.

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-18 15:40 | Report Abuse

An interesting side story. Warren Buffett bought The Washington Post stocks in 1970s and he believes the company is selling for 30 cents to the dollar. After 1.5 years, the stock dropped another 25%, seems to be telling him he is wrong. But in the next 10 years, the stock went up 10 times. It just goes to show if you bought a good business, and people around you disagree with you, ignore them. People pay a lot to get a cheery consensus in the stock market.

Posted by commonsense > 2018-11-18 15:53 | Report Abuse

Hi Graham,

Thanks for your explanation. I think most investors and analysts are also finding difficulties to gauge the future Gkent performance after the renegotiation of the contract.

In order to be sure, i guess the best way is to wait for the 1Q20 result (quarter ending Jan 2019) since that quarter will be based on the new renegotiated terms for LRT3.

Like your anecdote on the Washington Post. :)

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-18 16:10 | Report Abuse

You are welcome! Actually how this LRT3 project is going to play out can’t be judged on the next quarter, because the revenue recognition I believe is progressive instead of lump sum at the front. I could be wrong because I don’t know how the contract is spelled out. The biggest risk I foresee is the boss, which is 70 years old this year I think. I’m worried if he is to retire, it would deal a big blow to the company because I think the greatest asset of GKent is him.

Posted by mukhriz02023 > 2018-11-19 08:15 | Report Abuse

After all, this is still a lousy counter

Posted by SHQuah > 2018-11-19 08:27 | Report Abuse

To me this is still a good counter at current price with current PE ratio, cash and dividend %.

Dex and mukhriz02023.....can you all please sell all your Gkent shares.
Maybe you all do not even have any Gkent share ?

Posted by William Choong > 2018-11-19 08:46 | Report Abuse

In fact counter not lousy, what is more lousy?

Posted by mukhriz02023 > 2018-11-19 11:03 | Report Abuse

William Chong of course

Posted by GrahamNewman > 2018-11-19 14:08 | Report Abuse

If the naysayers are confident of their thinking, why not profit by shorting this stock?

Posted by MillionMindset > 2018-11-19 16:23 | Report Abuse

Really lousy counter. Haiz

Posted by nicky > 2018-11-19 17:07 | Report Abuse

Hopeless

Posted by warren buntut > 2018-11-19 17:14 | Report Abuse

already hopeless since 509.

Posted by Jaya > 2018-11-19 19:34 | Report Abuse

Sell sell sell waiting at 1.00

Posted by John Angel > 2018-11-19 19:37 | Report Abuse

worst

Posted by Alibaba > 2018-11-19 19:56 | Report Abuse

GenM can rebound
TM can rebound
MYEG can rebound
Airasia can rebound
UMW can rebound

Gkent......remain ~

Posted by Jaya > 2018-11-20 06:00 | Report Abuse

If you got any sell sell sell

Posted by Jaya > 2018-11-20 06:05 | Report Abuse

A lot of people saying a lot of things about this counter , don’t get trapped
Lousy counter means lousy la

Posted by SHQuah > 2018-11-20 12:39 | Report Abuse

I am not sure those always asking us to sell do you all have any more Gkent shares ? If you don't have why still monitoring this counter. Maybe you want us to sell so you could accumulate cheaper.

Posted by mukhriz02023 > 2018-11-20 19:03 | Report Abuse

Lousy counter. Sell all guys

Posted by setyoufree > 2018-11-20 19:39 | Report Abuse

Jaya jom sell sell sell sell, sell all and leave i3

Posted by Jaya > 2018-11-21 00:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jaya > 2018-11-21 05:04 | Report Abuse

Setyoufree
This counter lousy for trading also
Thus I wait till 1.00 and then come back

Posted by Jaya > 2018-11-21 05:04 | Report Abuse

Day

Posted by Jaya > 2018-11-21 05:05 | Report Abuse

Hopefully you not so grumpy then

Posted by Jaya > 2018-11-21 06:50 | Report Abuse

SHquah
Sure down today, have a look at DJ

Posted by warren buntut > 2018-11-21 07:43 | Report Abuse

0.9

Posted by mukhriz02023 > 2018-11-21 07:47 | Report Abuse

Told u guys. This counter definitely lousy

Posted by mukhriz02023 > 2018-11-21 07:48 | Report Abuse

if you sold all as per my suggestion before, now you can buy more at cheaper price

Posted by Jaya > 2018-11-21 08:34 | Report Abuse

Doomsday today

Posted by RainT > 2018-11-21 09:30 | Report Abuse

Continue down trend
This good that good also no use
Buy back shares
High cash
High dividend
All is bull shit

Posted by RainT > 2018-11-21 09:38 | Report Abuse

Good sharing

Read through the comment above

Many share good insight about GKENT

Thanks