Posted by Alex™ > 2020-12-19 09:33 | Report Abuse

buy now, 20 dump

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-19 11:17 | Report Abuse

JJchan, I’m just curious why these local clowns want to block BAT from going up...

Anything to do with C1 which is going to expire end of next month?

Posted by JJchan > 2020-12-19 13:23 | Report Abuse

simon---almost 99% sure Bankers are fighting Call Warrant losses. First 3 months of 2021 will
see massive call warrant loss. However Bankers are not stupid, they Cut loss by Buying
mother BAT next 2 weeks

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-19 13:38 | Report Abuse

Meaning there’s still a potential upside for CW, for short term trade, right?

Posted by JJchan > 2020-12-19 13:54 | Report Abuse

I donT play call warrant anymore...simon

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-19 14:09 | Report Abuse

Thx

Posted by UncleFollower > 2020-12-19 14:18 | Report Abuse

It's not a straight line for the banks too. They are not just sitting there just to lose their pants on CW. They are the market maker and trading it themselves

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-19 15:01 | Report Abuse

JJchan & UncleFollower, meaning it’s still quite safe to trade C3 & C4 which expires in 08/21?

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-19 15:01 | Report Abuse

We assume BAT will soar in the 1st half of 2021....

Posted by apprentice > 2020-12-19 15:15 | Report Abuse

Agree with Uncle.

JJChan, bankers don't cut loss by buying mother BAT next 2 weeks. When they buy, it will increase the price of both BAT and the CWs and they lose more money.

They will sell or sell short BAT before expiry of CW to bring down the cash settlement payments. Trading volume of BAT is not high, so its easy to manipulate the price.

Simon, stay clear from CWs with less than 2 months to expiry unless you are confident the mother will increase by at least 10%. Anyway BAT has gone up 35% since the issuance of C1, so the upside may be limited.

Posted by apprentice > 2020-12-19 15:20 | Report Abuse

yes Simon, you can trade C3 and C4, but I dislike the ratio. 15:1

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-19 16:02 | Report Abuse

Thx Apprentice

Posted by JJchan > 2020-12-19 16:41 | Report Abuse

apprentice, You are right and wrong. Bank are not carrying One call warrant only(bat). Diversification---many call warrants. When One is too bullish they Cut- and let Go. Yearly
Bank Bonus comes when Portfolio manager makes money for the Bank Or Not. Really donT
care which warrant concerned

I have many Head Butts with Call warrant previously. I found that if their losses is more than
10% they wonT enter into a serious fight. But the real problem is Bankers help each other in
Call warrant fight when expiry Date is one after another ( One Month time frame) They grouped
together and attack the first in line (expired soonest) so that next in line will be saved

Posted by JJchan > 2020-12-19 16:59 | Report Abuse

In any way i see Bankers loading Up next 2 --3 weeks until it is overbought, then they will plunge
the price 2 weeks before expiry Date. However if foreign Fund started Buying, there is nothing
Bankers can do but just sell Mother to reduce warrant losses ( like TopGlove Now)

Posted by apprentice > 2020-12-19 17:17 | Report Abuse

JJ, I respect and value your opinion. BAT is already overbought as I see it. From below than rm10 to over rm14 in 2 months is fast. IBs would have collected BAT from before they issue CWs until now.

CWs are like dragons. Riding them when they are small, little dragons. At 30 sens, its quite matured and rather expensive and can burn the purchaser badly especially those close to maturity.

One has to do lots of homework before punting CW. But the risk is truly rewarding if one gets it right.

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2020-12-19 17:44 | Report Abuse

I heard VFM KYO cigarette out of stock in many retail outlets.. True ?

Posted by JJchan > 2020-12-19 17:56 | Report Abuse

around 38--40, BAT is overbought. However I donT know to draw the line between Overbought Or underbought when my Banker told me there are 400 billion (ringgit ) of HOT money parking in HK and Singapore ready for action. Just like TopGlove, when local Bankers said TP 15, foreign
Funds said TP 80.
400Bil just represent 6-7% of Hedge Fund money in Dow Jones---I consider DW jones as fully
valued and this Hot USA money got to earn money somewhere

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-19 18:29 | Report Abuse

Let’s see this tug of war game siapa menang...

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-19 18:29 | Report Abuse

Very interesting

Posted by apprentice > 2020-12-19 18:45 | Report Abuse

BAT needs to up its revenue and PAT to go back to its glory days of rm40.

If truly there is 400B hot money waiting, some will surely come to BAT.

Posted by Nepo > 2020-12-19 19:51 | Report Abuse

Buy in now otherwise when foreign investors come, the price will then sky high..


马股料热至明年首半年 令吉或可吸引外资重返
https://www.chinapress.com.my/?p=2328544

Posted by Ntpboon > 2020-12-19 20:06 | Report Abuse

--------------------------

在低利率的时候, 更应该买BAT这种派高股息公司的股票.

在Bursa上市的公司里, 派超过一元股息的公司寥寥无几.

而且本益比低于二十的少之又少, 不买更待何时？

---------------------------------------

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-19 20:54 | Report Abuse

Hi Apprentice, I have 50k C1, cost @ 7c, so I can take the risk to wait till middle of 01/2021 to decide to convert or to sell, am I right?

Posted by Karmagod > 2020-12-20 09:31 | Report Abuse

illicit cigarettes never ending, this share very hard to grow...

Posted by JJchan > 2020-12-20 10:07 | Report Abuse

There are more than 1 Trillion Ringgit siting in HK waiting for Jack Ma Ant Group IPO just 2 month
ago---many Funds has gone somewhere

Posted by Ntpboon > 2020-12-20 10:24 | Report Abuse

--------------------------

我是一名奉公守法的烟客，我抽的是政府课于重税的香烟。

既然政府抽了那么多税，本就应该全力打击非法的走私香烟。

不是像某些政客提议那样，叫烟草公司卖些便宜烟。

本末倒置，治标不治本！

--------------------------------------

Posted by 240902 > 2020-12-20 10:59 | Report Abuse

agreed with NTP Boon......I am a law-abiding smoker, and I smoke cigarettes that are heavily taxed by the government.

Since the government has smoked so many taxes, it should have done its best to combat illegal cigarette smuggling.

It's not like asking tobacco companies to sell cheap cigarettes, as some politicians suggest.

Put the cart before the horse, treat the symptoms but not the root cause!

Posted by Ntpboon > 2020-12-20 11:51 | Report Abuse

----------------------------

我并不是要鼓励人去抽烟。

我知道抽烟是不好的嗜好，但我戒不了。

我唯一能做的就是买BAT的股票成为小股东。

这样，至少我买烟的钱能从BAT每季分的股息中拿一些回来。

不要笑我笨喔！

----------------------------------------

Posted by freeze789 > 2020-12-20 11:52 | Report Abuse

agree with Ntpboon and 240902...that is why the purpose of 2021 budget

Posted by kd88 > 2020-12-20 18:53 | Report Abuse

https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/news/nation/2017/05/30/198739

Posted by kd88 > 2020-12-20 18:53 | Report Abuse

BAT 的上限

根据2015统计，平均每天91mil 支烟被抽掉。

每年是1660mil 包烟。以中价烟14块一包来算，这里就是一个接近23bil 的行业总生意量。

23bil 可能夸大了。我就当是18b 好了。政府极力打击走私烟的情况下， 还有50%的走私烟吧。然后合法烟里面， 50%的人喜欢抽Marlboro 不喜欢抽 dunhill 。 Bat 一年的生意额就是4.5b( 18*0.5*0.5) 。 电子烟忽略不计， 因为BAT 也将推出电子烟。

4.5b 的revenue , 就是 2014 －2015年的revenue 。 那个时候赚了大概900mil , 也派了大概900m dividend。

以5% DY来算， 股价是63块。

以Nestle 的2% DY 来算， 股价是157 块。

当然，最重要是看政府打击私烟有多给力。只要政府打击私烟给力，这基本就是一只没有上限的股。

但是，BAT 的下限是有限的，因为不管怎样，还是有人顶不住要去抽那个味道gao gao 的Dunhill 红色。

Posted by williamh > 2020-12-20 22:58 | Report Abuse

Can break 15 tomorrow .

Posted by Edison Chen > 2020-12-21 09:21 | Report Abuse

Can’t break 15,sell heavy,huhh

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-21 09:51 | Report Abuse

Christmas mode already

Posted by williamh > 2020-12-21 10:02 | Report Abuse

Ok after Q4 annoument may runnig up before x

Posted by freeze789 > 2020-12-21 11:31 | Report Abuse

Stringray_ea then what is the resistance?

Posted by Ntpboon > 2020-12-21 11:37 | Report Abuse

--------------------------

“赚到大钱的诀窍不在于怎么思考, 而在于能静坐不动, 坐着不动！明白吗？在股票这行, 能够买对了且能静坐不动的人少之又少, 我发现这是最难学的.”

--------杰西利弗莫尔


------------------------------------

Posted by BATFLY > 2020-12-21 14:51 | Report Abuse

Consistent dividend despite covid is just fantastic..

Posted by somo1 > 2020-12-21 16:32 | Report Abuse

Looks like prices shall consolidate at current levels until such time 4Q results are released in February.

Posted by Edison Chen > 2020-12-21 18:06 | Report Abuse

No power today, so sad

Posted by kd88 > 2020-12-21 19:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/news/nation/2017/05/30/198739

Posted by kd88 > 2020-12-21 19:21 | Report Abuse

BAT 的上限

根据2015统计，平均每天91mil 支烟被抽掉。

每年是1660mil 包烟。以中价烟14块一包来算，这里就是一个接近23bil 的行业总生意量。

23bil 可能夸大了。我就当是18b 好了。政府极力打击走私烟的情况下， 还有50%的走私烟吧。然后合法烟里面， 50%的人喜欢抽Marlboro 不喜欢抽 dunhill 。 Bat 一年的生意额就是4.5b( 18*0.5*0.5) 。 电子烟忽略不计， 因为BAT 也将推出电子烟。

4.5b 的revenue , 就是 2014 －2015年的revenue 。 那个时候赚了大概900mil , 也派了大概900m dividend。

以5% DY来算， 股价是63块。

以Nestle 的2% DY 来算， 股价是157 块。

当然，最重要是看政府打击私烟有多给力。只要政府打击私烟给力，这基本就是一只没有上限的股。

但是，BAT 的下限是有限的，因为不管怎样，还是有人顶不住要去抽那个味道gao gao 的Dunhill 红色。

Posted by apprentice > 2020-12-21 19:35 | Report Abuse

Posted by Simon_khoo > Dec 19, 2020 8:54 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Apprentice, I have 50k C1, cost @ 7c, so I can take the risk to wait till middle of 01/2021 to decide to convert or to sell, am I right?

Hi Simon, sorry for the delay. Didnt check this forum earlier.

Call warrants cannot be converted. C1 is issued by CIMB and not BAT.

The exercise price is 10.80 and ratio is 10:1.

Hence the actual value of C1 is 14.34 - 10.80 /10 = 35.4 sen

Should you wait until expiry, there is a calculation and CIMB will send you a cheque for the amount.

If you are confident by 29 Jan BAT is higher than now, then keep until expiry. Else sell it by mid Jan.

Posted by apprentice > 2020-12-21 20:01 | Report Abuse

BTW, the price is based on 5 day weighted average prior to expiry.

Expiry 29 Jan Friday, calculation will start from 22 Jan.

The last 2 days before expiry, the C1 will be suspended. You are at the mercy of the IB. Should they sell BAT and bring down the price by rm1 during the 5 days, they would have saved 10sen you get 5K less.

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-21 20:32 | Report Abuse

Thx. Duly understood

Posted by law7587 > 2020-12-22 07:33 | Report Abuse

Sell Sell!!! New strain of virus found in UK

Posted by kd88 > 2020-12-22 11:39 | Report Abuse

https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/index.php/news/nation/2017/05/30/198739

Posted by kd88 > 2020-12-22 11:40 | Report Abuse

BAT 的上限

根据2015统计，平均每天91mil 支烟被抽掉。

每年是1660mil 包烟。以中价烟14块一包来算，这里就是一个接近23bil 的行业总生意量。

23bil 可能夸大了。我就当是18b 好了。政府极力打击走私烟的情况下， 还有50%的走私烟吧。然后合法烟里面， 50%的人喜欢抽Marlboro 不喜欢抽 dunhill 。 Bat 一年的生意额就是4.5b( 18*0.5*0.5) 。 电子烟忽略不计， 因为BAT 也将推出电子烟。

4.5b 的revenue , 就是 2014 －2015年的revenue 。 那个时候赚了大概900mil , 也派了大概900m dividend。

以5% DY来算， 股价是63块。

以Nestle 的2% DY 来算， 股价是157 块。

当然，最重要是看政府打击私烟有多给力。只要政府打击私烟给力，这基本就是一只没有上限的股。

但是，BAT 的下限是有限的，因为不管怎样，还是有人顶不住要去抽那个味道gao gao 的Dunhill 红色。

Posted by kd88 > 2020-12-22 11:41 | Report Abuse

把一只可以涨到50－100的票卖掉，就是不可理喻

Posted by Edison Chen > 2020-12-22 12:04 | Report Abuse

收到风了 下半场冲16块 huat huat huat