Posted by Baby Shark > 2020-01-22 14:51 | Report Abuse

Wah .. bought dis morning start want rugi..

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-01-22 14:52 | Report Abuse

eish eish eish

Posted by gghaha > 2020-01-22 15:03 | Report Abuse

ask wait 8.8 oredi....

Posted by DickyMe > 2020-01-22 15:12 | Report Abuse

Government ought to remove the sin taxes in order to combat illegal supply. In fact, gomen should provide tax free incentives and allow more ciggy and beer ads in all streaming and published medias.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-22 15:31 | Report Abuse

Same risk analyst who did it when RM30 hahaha.

====
CharlesT RISK ANALYSIS
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of -1.8% per year for the next 3 years

much better than ah Jon's 37.5% cut lah
21/01/2020 12:06 PM

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-22 15:35 | Report Abuse

All analysts r dead wrong on BAT..
Mayb ah Jon is better..lol

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-22 15:46 | Report Abuse

Ok, lets say extrapolated gross profit for the year is RM700m. Now, lets say, revenue drop 40% over next few years.

New Gross Profit is RM420m.

Less nomalized OPEX, RM200m (from the cost cut).

tax 24%, so about RM167.2m profit. 100% div payout.

Discounted at 4.125% (highest fd in msia, MBSB), is about RM4.05bil.

Current Enterprise value, about RM3.9bil.

So got some discount.

If you think unlikely drop 40% over next few years, then its very cheap, otherwise, its ok only.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-22 15:57 | Report Abuse

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 21, 2020 9:49 AM | Report Abuse

Well, its just an estimate on the bottom for me. Currently, legal ciggs is 25% of the malaysian market.

At another 37.5% down, it will be about 10% or so of the market, i don't see how things can get worse than that.

Currently Australia and Singapore have the most expensive cigarettes in the world, however, due to extremely strong enforcement, illegal ciggs is about 10% of the market.

Well, taking the opposite position, if you have extremely weak and corrupt enforcement, legal ciggs may end up with 10% of the market share lol.

So your assumption on 40% drops is based on legal ciggs may end up 10% of the mkt share? Or may be many smokers will die or quit smoking in next few years?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-22 15:59 | Report Abuse

is yr assumption of 10% legal ciggs practical?

Posted by slts > 2020-01-22 16:11 | Report Abuse

alot of rubbish analysis here.
unless u smoke illegal cigs like me
u know how hard to get them now

Posted by William Ng > 2020-01-22 16:12 | Report Abuse

drop or no drop i buy also, but i started to buy a bit 1st, increase then earn some ang pao, drop then add in some more..

Posted by William Ng > 2020-01-22 16:14 | Report Abuse

time to rebound~

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-01-22 16:23 | Report Abuse

Wah... Huat liao lo.. Why I no buy rm11?

Posted by therookieechingchong > 2020-01-22 16:33 | Report Abuse

TP to buy in at below 10, disregards all those analysis saying is a downside trend for BAT and its industries, market price of a stock is depending on the confidence of investors.

Looking in the past and to future. Every year, asking the question of will smoking tobacco be stop in near future? will illegal cigarettes be legal in MY? Will there be further impose of legislation and duty on tobacco? analyse the informations and evaluate yourself. this is not a shortterm counter, it will need patient at least of 3-5 years to return, by that time, is the dividend yield enough to cover?

Worst case scenario, great impact to BAT's share price as it is in MY with all tags of religions, politics and culture, globally are they bad? Even if they are to delist or privatisation, the share price will still be acceptable.

If you are a short term investor, do not come in and risk it.
If you are a long term investor, evaluate and enter at your acceptable price.
This is a question mark counter, it could be the star future or a dog.

Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2020-01-22 17:02 | Report Abuse

CUT LOSS ... TP 1

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-22 17:07 | Report Abuse

shareinvestor88 CUT LOSS ... TP 1
22/01/2020 5:02 PM

anyway i am so relief that ah jon didnt anticipate legal ciggs to drop to 5% or even zero in the next few years...

or else tp Rm1 will come....scary

thanks ah Jon

Posted by Lol > 2020-01-22 18:10 | Report Abuse

tp.....................so much tp sifu

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-01-22 18:11 | Report Abuse

wah lau...very big diacount

Posted by hanafi9670 > 2020-01-22 19:58 | Report Abuse

OPR cut will definitely impact interest from bank...investor who keen for return on investment will search for a consistent dividend income company...and BAT is one of them...so apa tunggu lagi....kasi hantam lah BAT esok...huatt arr...

Posted by gsi723 > 2020-01-22 20:03 | Report Abuse

TP1 impossible.... 8.88 maybe la...

Posted by bose00 > 2020-01-22 20:42 | Report Abuse

1st round entry at 12+. Look for next window opp for 2nd entry.

Posted by William Ng > 2020-01-22 21:06 | Report Abuse

OPR 2.75!!! come BAT!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-23 01:11 | Report Abuse

If illegal ciggs are 30% the price of legal ones, with close to zero enforcement, why not? In many cases, even brand also same.

Nobody expected legal ciggs to be just 25% of the market now.

Illegal is 65%, Vape 10%.

===
CharlesT is yr assumption of 10% legal ciggs practical?
22/01/2020 3:59 PM

Posted by ubaL taM > 2020-01-23 07:11 | Report Abuse

Rothmans

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-23 08:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 23, 2020 1:11 AM | Report Abuse

If illegal ciggs are 30% the price of legal ones, with close to zero enforcement, why not? In many cases, even brand also same.

Nobody expected legal ciggs to be just 25% of the market now.

Illegal is 65%, Vape 10%.


Yeap despite u see the close to zero enforcement luckily u still project a very positive 10% legal ciggs and not 5% or zero...

if not shareinvestor8's TP Rm1.00 may come earlier than our expectation....scary

thanks ah Jon

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-23 08:35 | Report Abuse

Anyway is it ok if I project the legal ciggs to drop to 10.22485% or 9.998735% instead of 10% in the next few years?

it may give a more accurate calculation....what say u?

Posted by hng33 > 2020-01-23 08:54 | Report Abuse

BNM cut interest, bank deposit rate cut < 3% vs. BAT offer NET dividend income 10%.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-23 08:56 | Report Abuse

ytd's low 11.82

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-23 08:56 | Report Abuse

the day before 11.70

Posted by kk7198 > 2020-01-23 08:58 | Report Abuse

Today no more Bat Bat?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-23 09:08 | Report Abuse

vol shrink

Posted by hng33 > 2020-01-23 09:11 | Report Abuse

Impossible to find BAT at current depress price that offer 10% dividend income now, it could be lowest point now awaiting for rebound soon.

Posted by sokowanda > 2020-01-23 09:12 | Report Abuse

boss big green cny, whole year big luck! boss big red cny, whole year pokai! Gong xi fa cai !!!

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-23 09:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by hng33 > Jan 23, 2020 9:11 AM | Report Abuse

Impossible to find BAT at current depress price that offer 10% dividend income now, it could be lowest point now awaiting for rebound soon.

Dont sell fast for 20 cents gain ah

Posted by posby > 2020-01-23 09:16 | Report Abuse

Biggest shark TA securities

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-23 09:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by posby > Jan 23, 2020 9:16 AM | Report Abuse

Biggest shark TA securities

i think there is conspiracy theory behind...report out on 15 Jan with tp RM11.90 then price plunged fm rm15 to rm12 in a week plus

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-01-23 09:20 | Report Abuse

Ah Heng arrrrr......u buying or not ???

what price u re buying which u claimed as the lowest point ?








Posted by hng33 > Jan 23, 2020 9:11 AM | Report Abuse

Impossible to find BAT at current depress price that offer 10% dividend income now, it could be lowest point now awaiting for rebound soon.

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-01-23 09:21 | Report Abuse

woii Ah heng ...u buying @ 12.10 ?

Posted by hng33 > 2020-01-23 09:21 | Report Abuse

The oversold condition may also prompted other to cover back short position

Posted by William Ng > 2020-01-23 09:21 | Report Abuse

Tp14

Posted by hng33 > 2020-01-23 09:23 | Report Abuse

Those naysayer keep on pressure on BAT, wanted < RM 10 need to wait sideline, perhaps for another decade.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-01-23 09:24 | Report Abuse

dont say so lah if ah jon's 10% or even 5% legal ciggs comes true

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-01-23 09:26 | Report Abuse

Ah Heng arrrrr......u buying or not ???

what price u re buying which u claimed as the lowest point ?








Posted by hng33 > Jan 23, 2020 9:11 AM | Report Abuse

Impossible to find BAT at current depress price that offer 10% dividend income now, it could be lowest point now awaiting for rebound soon.

Posted by William Ng > 2020-01-23 09:26 | Report Abuse

Keep on goreng old bad news also useless now.. Cos now is the worst case already

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-01-23 09:26 | Report Abuse

Ah Heng ... what price u enter this morning ?

RM 12.10 ?

Posted by hng33 > 2020-01-23 09:27 | Report Abuse

Interest rate cut ---> 12 month deposit rate cut to below 3% vs. 10% NET dividend return offer by BAT,

simple option to select, yet many still no awaken.....

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-01-23 09:31 | Report Abuse

i'm the one who said BAT will trade below RM10








Posted by hng33 > Jan 23, 2020 9:23 AM | Report Abuse

Those naysayer keep on pressure on BAT, wanted < RM 10 need to wait sideline, perhaps for another decade.

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-01-23 09:32 | Report Abuse

Ah Heng ... what price u enter this morning ?

RM 12.10 ?



faster ... make buying declaration

Posted by hng33 > 2020-01-23 09:33 | Report Abuse

After heavy selloff with volume for consecutive few day, BAT finally have ease off selling pressure indicating seller have clear stocks, no more volume to press down further.

Such oversold condition will create rebound back momentum. Once, stock rebounding, many will follow fast to cover their short position, creating higher rebound momentum

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-01-23 09:35 | Report Abuse

faster la Ah Heng


what price u buying this morning ???