Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-28 09:26 | Report Abuse

CALVIN SUNDAY SHARING: WHY TSH HAS MORE VALUE THAN JAYA TIASA AND ALL OTHER OIL PALM SHARES, Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2024-01-28-story-h-190145065-CALVIN_SUNDAY_SHARING

Posted by Multibagger > 2024-01-28 10:35 | Report Abuse

Hi Value Invest,
I would yhink which is a better pick depend on what is our objective, dividend vs capital gain..of course dividend appears more reliable than capital gain which is subject to market forces.

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-28 11:53 | Report Abuse

SWKPLT (EPS 9.72c last Q), Annualized 38.88 cents, PE 5.6
SOP ( EPS last Q 10.62 cents) Ann 42 cents , PE 6.5
TAAN ( EPS 14.79 last Q), ann 0.60 , PE 6
All the above three companies have yield from 6 to 10 %

Jayatiasa
Last 2 quarter:
Quarter
Revenue
PBT
NP
NP to SH
NP Margin
ROE
EPS
DPS
NAPS
QoQ
YoY
30-Sep-2023 248,003 93,035 66,835 66,833 26.95% 4.57% 6.90 0.00 1.5100 11.26% 96.65%

30-Jun-2023 199,019 40,331 60,161 60,067 30.23% 4.34% 6.21 1.70 1.4300 489.93% 42.36%

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-28 12:01 | Report Abuse

Jayatiasa,
What will be next quarter EPS and dividend?

FFB production
Quarter end 31Dec 2023
345,778
Quarter end 30 Sept 2023
359,740
Quarter end 30 June 2023
224,649

Average Monthly MPOB CPO spot price 2023
Jan to Dec 2023:
3,922.00
3,908.00
4,159.50
4,217.50
3,795.50
3,525.00
3,897.00
3,805.00
3,727.00
3,640.00
3,700.50
3,656.50

https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?more=Y&jenis=1Y&tahun=2023

Posted by sense maker > 2024-01-28 12:44 | Report Abuse

5 sen eps, 2sen dividend for next quarterly report at end of Feb 24.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-28 13:37 | Report Abuse

Sense Maker

Next month results quite apparent will match latest qtr plus dividend should exceed 2 sen (baring the unknowns)

Ok

See last qtr result

EPS 6.9 sen
NAV Rm1.51

But there was a Rm52.5 Million deduction for buying Oil Palm estates share

And the cutoff date was Aug 2023 which was reported in July to Sept 2023 balance sheet

See

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3380893

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-28 13:45 | Report Abuse

At Rm52.250 Millions Expense it was worth

5.39 sen

Now if we add 5.39 sen to reported profit of 6.9 sen
last qtr result should be 12.29 sen

But since Cash of Rm52.25 Millions went into Asset Purchase

The Net Value was reflected in its increase in Total NTA

See

April to June 2023 Qtr Result NTA

NTA was Rm1.43

Now latest is Rm1.51

So the extra profit is Parked under NTA and NTA has gone up by 8 sen from Rm1.43 to Rm1.51

SO THIS QTR THERE WILL BE NO MORE RM52.25 MIL EXPENSE

AS SUCH I EXPECT EPS TO GO HIGHER NOTWITHSTANDING FFB PRODUCTION HAS DROPPED SLIGHTLY
ALTHOUGH CPO PRICES WEAKENED THERE IS A CORRESPONDING DROP IN FERTILIZER COST

NEXT WE WILL SEE DIVIDEND

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-28 13:54 | Report Abuse

Now Jtiasa only pay two times dividend per year
And dividend quantum still low at 20% as Jtiasa still got Net debt of Rm93 Million to be cleared

Last Qtr EPS 6.9 sen

So 6.9 X .2

= 1.38 sen (this will be accumulated dividend carried forward next month)

Now no more Rm52.25 Mil expense for buying any more Palm oil assets

equal to 5.39 sen

Again 5.39 X .2 (set aside as dividend)
= 1.07 sen

So add 1.38 sen to 1.07 sen

= 2.45 sen

And we have not yet included Net Profit from operating Profit
Will it be the usual 6.9 sen like last qtr (For more or for less?)

For that we will wait and only then we shall know the exact total profit & actual dividend

From all amgles Jtiasa is moving up strongly like never before

Not forgetting that the extra Rm52.25 Millions palm oil purchased are from highly fruitful matured trees which will boost earnings further

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-28 14:02 | Report Abuse

Please stop the misinformation the cash use for acquisition is not classified as expense in P&L statement.
EPS is 6.9 sen regardless of any cash used in acquisition of assets or PPE

Cash Flows used in Investing Activities RM '000
Acquisition of subsidiaries, net of cash - (52,209) -

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-28 14:11 | Report Abuse

Jayatiasa depreciation and amortisation per quarter about RM 35 million.
So per year depreciation and amortisation about RM 140 million. Since Net profit is after depreciation and amortisation hence you can expect addition cash of RM 140 million per year.

Posted by sense maker > 2024-01-28 14:21 | Report Abuse

Hold for 2 years, if CPO stands above rm4k, this share will be worth RM2-2.50.

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-28 14:27 | Report Abuse

Allow me to repeat, you cannot charge capital investment as expense in P&L statement.

So if Jaystiasa make RM 250 million NP than the free cash inflow from operation is RM 250 plus RM 140 depreciation and amortisation. Total RM 390 million.

From this cash inflow then company can spend this cash inflow in loans repayment, capital investment, paying dividend and etc.

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-28 14:32 | Report Abuse

I consider jayatiasa as turnaround growth (FFB production is growing significiently) company that start to pay dividend. Hence it share price start at a very low base compare to TAAAN and SOP.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-28 14:40 | Report Abuse

Sslee

Please stop the misinformation the cash use for acquisition is not classified as expense in P&L statement.
EPS is 6.9 sen regardless of any cash used in acquisition of assets or PPE

Cash Flows used in Investing Activities RM '000
Acquisition of subsidiaries, net of cash - (52,209) -

OK SSLee clever!

In any case Cash went into PPE and bloated NTA from Rm1.43 to Rm1.51

If not the Rm52.25 Mil excess Cash could be given out as Dividends like Innoprise Plant

Ok go kai kai now

Leave you guys to discuss among yourselves
Bye

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-28 14:50 | Report Abuse

Jayatiasa as at 31/9/2023
RM'000
Cash and cash equivalents 201,202
Current Liabilities
Loans and borrowings 56,310
Non-current Liabilities -
Loans and borrowings 264,137

Jayatiasa should be able to pare down the borrowings further.

Posted by pang72 > 2024-01-28 20:42 | Report Abuse

Very insightful information..
TQ

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-28 22:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-28 22:54 | Report Abuse

Haha so TSH is very much Undervalued ke …

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-28 23:12 | Report Abuse

Haha During Low season monthly output.. CPO price is expected Shl be rise …

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-28 23:32 | Report Abuse

Meanwhile, RHB research expects CPO prices to range higher from current levels to above RM4,000/tonne in the first half of 2024 (1H24), on seasonally low output and the impact of El Nino.

Lacklustre demand however will limit the upside for prices, leaving it to maintain its RM3,900/tonne price assumption for 2024.

"Our base case is a moderate El Nino, which in previous years has led to a two to seven per cent decline in palm oil (PO) production. "Should the El Nino become a strong one, we would need to relook at our price assumptions," RHB research said.

It expects stock levels to continue decreasing in the months ahead, on the back of a lower output season and higher demand related to festive seasons.

"Meanwhile, palm oil stock levels at most major importing countries are now above historical levels, providing less incentive for significant restocking activities, given fragile global demand on the back of weak economic sentiment.

"Also, competition with Indonesian palm oil remains intense, resulting in Malaysian palm oil losing market share," it noted.

As such, RHB Research has maintained its 'Neutral' rating on the plantation sector with a tactically positive trading strategy.

The firm continues to prefer upstream players for now, with top picks being Ta Ann Holdings Bhd and Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd in Malaysia, Bumitama Agri (BAL) and Golden Agri (GGR) in Singapore, and PP London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP) in Indonesia.

Meanwhile, RHB research expects CPO prices to range higher from current levels to above RM4,000/tonne in the first half of 2024 (1H24), on seasonally low output and the impact of El Nino.

Lacklustre demand however will limit the upside for prices, leaving it to maintain its RM3,900/tonne price assumption for 2024.

"Our base case is a moderate El Nino, which in previous years has led to a two to seven per cent decline in palm oil (PO) production. "Should the El Nino become a strong one, we would need to relook at our price assumptions," RHB research said.

It expects stock levels to continue decreasing in the months ahead, on the back of a lower output season and higher demand related to festive seasons.

"Meanwhile, palm oil stock levels at most major importing countries are now above historical levels, providing less incentive for significant restocking activities, given fragile global demand on the back of weak economic sentiment.

"Also, competition with Indonesian palm oil remains intense, resulting in Malaysian palm oil losing market share," it noted.

As such, RHB Research has maintained its 'Neutral' rating on the plantation sector with a tactically positive trading strategy.

The firm continues to prefer upstream players for now, with top picks being Ta Ann Holdings Bhd and Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd in Malaysia, Bumitama Agri (BAL) and Golden Agri (GGR) in Singapore, and PP London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP) in Indonesia.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-28 23:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-28 23:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-29 00:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-29 06:47 | Report Abuse

Haha MHC dividend yield is 7.41 %

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-29 07:51 | Report Abuse

MHC dividend is 3.2%, manada 7.41?

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-29 07:51 | Report Abuse

u nak 7%, u pergi beli Pavreit

Posted by Multibagger > 2024-01-29 08:16 | Report Abuse

Hi Calvin,
Thanks for your posting of TSH valuation. I am overwhelmed by your valuation methodology and analogy.

Just to highlight some comment you made which I believe may not be accurate:-
1. When cash is used to acquire asset, this does not increase NTA of the company. It merely involves transfer of short term asset to long term asset in Balance Sheet. NTA remained the same.
2. Your statement "Not forgetting that the extra Rm52.25 Millions palm oil purchased are from highly fruitful matured trees which will boost earnings further."

This statement is not very accurate as the Rm52.25 mil purchase was on palm oil estate under JV, which Jtiasa has already accounted for under JV results. The rationale of the acquisition stated by management was to secure the estate before Jtiasa carry out replanting on this estate which it has no control. The financial impact from the acquisition was not disclosed, which I guess is very minimal. After all, it could just be a cash out from this estate by controlling shareholder. 

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-29 08:20 | Report Abuse

This statement is not very accurate as the Rm52.25 mil purchase was on palm oil estate under JV, which Jtiasa has already accounted for under JV results. The rationale of the acquisition stated by management was to secure the estate before Jtiasa carry out replanting on this estate which it has no control. The financial impact from the acquisition was not disclosed, which I guess is very minimal. After all, it could just be a cash out from this estate by controlling shareholder.

Note if they cashed out then futher share of harvest all goes to JTIASA

You can only choose

Have the Cake
Or eat the cake

Since they want to have the Cake of Cash Rm52.25 Mil

They no longer enjoy future Harvest & Sale of FFB

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-29 08:38 | Report Abuse

Haha Direct from 2 websites:

MHC

DY 7.41%

But on Calculating is 3.2 %

—

Jtiasa

DY 2.71%

Calculating is 2.71 %

Thanks for highlighting….

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-29 08:55 | Report Abuse

PETALING JAYA: Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd (JTH) is acquiring a 55% stake in Wealth Houses Development Sdn Bhd (WHD), which owns a 5,967 ha leasehold land in Sarawak, for RM52.3mil.

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-29 09:02 | Report Abuse

Like Inno many of Jayatiasa plantation land is rented from Sarawak government or related parties.

The rental average rate is RM10/mt to RM15/mt FFB

Posted by Multibagger > 2024-01-29 09:42 | Report Abuse

Hi Value Invest,
Thanks for sharing your investment thought.
The first criteria I look at is consistent free cash flow, follow by ROE and net profit margin, next is gearing level. Asset backing is just a comfort to me, never a main criteria.

yes, you are right, many property companies are at huge discount to RNAV, not just on Bursa, HKEX has many reputable developers on big discount too.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-29 10:37 | Report Abuse

Uems got Rm4 Billions loans on its balance sheet
Plus Uems already revalued all its lands to half million ringgit per acre

So Uems no longer cheap any more

Tsh pared down its debts from Rm1.46 billions to only Rm77 mil

Plus Tsh lands in ikn nusantara is still at around Rm5k book value

Johor Spore Rts is Rm10 bil

Ikn Nusantara capex is Rm200 Billions

How to compare?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-29 10:40 | Report Abuse

Uems Already sold off lots of good prime lands to Country View and others
Remaining lands not much and also location so so

Tsh lands still got total half Billion acres if you count its oil palm plus forest concession lands

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-29 10:43 | Report Abuse

Another very big problem is cost of very high labour

Last time Indon worker per day wage was Rm20
Later Rm60

Now is Rm150

And very hard to get as 200,000 highly skilled Indon workers gone to ikn nusantara

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-29 11:56 | Report Abuse

Haha let see Sime Darby Plantation Robotic plan progress … succeed or fail …

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-29 13:38 | Report Abuse

TSH very good now

It just sold its Bulugan 33 ,000 acres land in Bulugan for Rm731.09 Millions reaping a Huge Rm465 Millions profit

Just like Bplant sold Kulai Young land to YTL Power for Solar Farm & Data Center

I have been in Real Estate Since 1990s more than 30 years already so I speak from 1st hand experience

See KL Boom Time

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2016-05-22-story-h54305731-MY_FIRST_AUCTION_PROPERTY_IN_KUALA_LUMPUR_HIGH_COURT_Calvin_Tan

What KL was going through in the 1990s IKN NUSANTARA is On going now

So TSH will do very very very WELL

I bought that abandoned auction house no body wanted for 13 years!

After I bought IT ZOOMED UP IN PRICE

Read again 3 Times

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2016-05-22-story-h54305731-MY_FIRST_AUCTION_PROPERTY_IN_KUALA_LUMPUR_HIGH_COURT_Calvin_Tan

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-29 13:41 | Report Abuse

Ready already?

Not yet

BETTER READ

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2016-05-22-story-h54305731-MY_FIRST_AUCTION_PROPERTY_IN_KUALA_LUMPUR_HIGH_COURT_Calvin_Tan

SUPER PROPERTY BOOM TIME IN IKN NUSANTARA

24 HOUR DAY & NIGHT BUILDING NON STOP

ONLY PLAY ON PLANET EARTH NOW IN HOTTEST BOOM

20 TIMES MORE THAN JOHOR!

HERE RM200 BILLION PROJECT

JOHOR RTS ONLY RM10 BILLIONS

See

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2pdPkwY44M

Posted by pang72 > 2024-01-29 16:59 | Report Abuse

Amazing closing $1.22

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2024-01-29 17:01 | Report Abuse

PE only 6x. hold on

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2024-01-29 21:39 | Report Abuse

ROE 11%
Book value 1.51
Assuming P/BV 1x, TP at least 1.51

Posted by xiaoeh > 2024-01-29 21:59 | Report Abuse

1.22 previous high
purely technical resistant take note

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-30 07:49 | Report Abuse

1.20 dah pecah. today target is 1.25. slow & steady

Posted by pang72 > 2024-01-30 11:14 | Report Abuse

Minor correction mari...
Let's wait......
We will hv a great journey to $1.69 with great profit improvement of jtiasa

Posted by Berlin > 2024-01-30 11:45 | Report Abuse

Sold my JTiasa trading stock near RM1.20 and happy with it. The jumping tiger became overconfident and lost its footing looking for giant treasure in some dark Sarawakian cave. Will see how things go next few days.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2024-01-30 11:51 | Report Abuse

Pecah down below RM1.20 already.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2024-01-30 12:00 | Report Abuse

Haha red flag at 1.15 …

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-30 12:09 | Report Abuse

Amboi! Dah panic selling

Posted by pang72 > 2024-01-30 12:12 | Report Abuse

Hahaha! Panic for those panic but not for us

Posted by pang72 > 2024-01-30 12:12 | Report Abuse

$1.69 the 1st target pun belum sampai...
Tunggu more good news...