Calvin, what is your opinion on Kim Loong? As far as I know, currently the top plantation equity research analyst is AmInvestment Bank. She gave Kim Loong super bullish PT at RM2.90
It has also stated its mills will not make much money if Ffb is high
So i think Kmloong is just slightly above average due to Mr Gooi who is a good Boss
However we will focus on palm oil co owning over 200,000 acres of plantation land like jtiasa Kmloong only got about 1/3 or less of Jtiasa 206,000 acres
The only one in Eagle group top 10 palm oil with less than 100,000 palm oil is Hs plant (just over 90,000 acres or about the 1.3 times Penang Island Next month Hs plant will be giving another nice dividend
Mr Fong Siling aka Cold Eye also in Top 30 of Hs plant
Anyone interested in kmloong can also consider hs plant (5138)
In year 2017 there was Budget allocation for Drb Hicom
it was a Chun Chun buy call at 92 sen
e-commerce plus jack ma coming and pos office hype pushed Drb Hicom to Rm2.70
then in year 2018 there was the Nfcp theme when Rm50 billions was supposed to go for fiberisation - stocks like Redtone, Opcom, Netx and Binacom came into focus
by 2019 it turned into Ogse PETRONAS Rm30 Upstream capex powered up Dayang, Penergy and Carimin (this was curry mee that went up from 40 sen to Rm1.48) Dayang up from 60 sen to Rm3.00
In year 2020 Covid 19 hit hard Medical gloves theme came into very hot play
Supermax up from Rm1.50 to Rm24.00. Topglove, Harta and Kossan all crossed Rm20.00
By end 2020 Glove theme fizzled and palm oil theme came into focus until 2022 when it peaked and then weakened
but palm oil theme now revived again by
1. High Cpo prices 2. Govt release restriction and allowed importation of foreign labour
possible review of palm oil tax
and this year two palm oil IPO Mkh oil palm & Johor Oil Palm
For plantation, we impute a FY24F FFB production growth of 6% YoY (vs. 5.2% YoY in FY23 and 7.5% YoY in 2MFY24). KLK’s oil palm estates in Sabah, Sumatra and Kalimantan were not affected by the heavy rains in late- 2023. 50% to 60% of KLK’s FFB production come from Indonesia.
Ex-mill cost of CPO production is anticipated to decline to RM2,000/tonne in FY24F from RM2,229/tonne in FY23. The drop in the cost of production per tonne in FY24F is driven by lower costs of fertiliser and a higher volume of CPO production.
KLK is currently trading at a FY25F PE of 16x, which is slightly higher than its 2-year average of 15x. We believe that the premium is justified due to the group’s attractive age profile of oil palm trees. Source: AmInvest Research - 24 Jan 2024
Anticipated to decline to Rm2000 cost of production for year 2024
I think could drop below Rm2,000 possible
Fcpo now Rm3,994 the gross profit is almost reaching 100%
Such high gross profit margin rarely possible in any industry anywhere on earth
This amplification of gross profit if Cpo can just maintain at this price range of Rm3600 to Rm4200 should see palm oil as an industry offers the best real growth in Malaysia - far far better than property, construction, e&e, utlities, banking and all others
Yes both jtiasa (malaysia) as well as bumitama (spore) in year suffered because of selling future stocks too early
At that time Cpo was Rm2700 and suddenly jumped over Rm3,000 to Rm3200
Never see Cpo above Rm3000 to Rm3200 for a very long time so they locked into these prices thinking already too good to be true and might retrace back below Rm3,000
And this wrong derivative move caused underperformance when Cpo prices gone higher and higher to their dismay But that is not permanent and just a one off mistake in calculation After that is business as usual with the happiness of such high prices of Rm3,994 now
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
wallstreetrookieNEW
1,416 posts
Posted by wallstreetrookieNEW > 2024-01-23 13:30 | Report Abuse
That was in 2023. I am talking about your predictions for the first month in 2024 alone