timber is a real concern now, most likely the January huge production drop is related to sarawak certification process. Even TA ANN cannot escape from timber woes. only thing is that their CPO is doing better than Jtiasa. what a waste, cannot capitalize from strong cpo price.
Wait for indication of Feb production output.. normally the Q result announced on Mar over the last 3 years were poor. JT log output on Jan dropped more 4x (in term of %) more than TA.
Seem like the Feb'17 FFB output is doing well and log output recovered from Jan'17 output.
FFB out FY'16 (Jan+Feb) (48,645 + 52,753 = 101,398)
FFB output FY'17 (65067+ 72991= 138,058)
Y on Y FFB (Jan+Feb) growth by 36% compare to FY'16
Output of CPO show that the New CPO plant has started operated since Jan'17 and this will help to reduce transport cost for FFB. Jtiasa will start to process some of its FFB at new 4th CPO factory instead of transport the FFB and sell to third party to process.
@Weng77: Yes, the 4th CPO mill was start commissioning on Dec16. Upon the completion of this Hariyama Mill, JTiasa will still selling around 15% of its FFB to third party mill due to geographical concern.
Last few years, JTiasa had spent a lot of CAPEX to build CPO mills & also planting of new oil palm estate, I think now is near the end of big CAPEX for its oil palm segment, just need to invest in the maintenance cost...... With this, hope its contribution from this segment can help to boost its EPS in near future.
Jaya tiasa set for strong recovery for current quarter (Q3'17-Jan-Mar'17) compare to last yr due to strong FFB output (36% increased Jan-Feb) and ~ 50% increased in FFB price and ~ 35% increase in CPO price.
Previous concerns on FFB output in Q2'17 dropped 3.95% Y on Y (could be due to El Nino delay effect) affected weaker Q2 results. Sudden decreased in timber output in Jan'17 Both factors above cause share price dropped from RM 1.4+ to RM 1.2+
After looking at the latest Feb'17 output report, seem like we should expect much better Q3'17 result than last yr...The worst is over for timber output and FFB output decrease...
Palm oil business
FFB output set for strong improvement for Jan-Feb'17 compare to last yr with 36% increased FFB price improved by 50% and CPO price improved by 35% compare to last yr Hariyama CPO plant started to operate in Dec'16 and this has increased the CPO output, reduce in the operation cost and transport cost.. FFB sell to third party will reduce from ~ 25% to ~10% (Simalau plantation FFB output) which mean Jtiasa will process ~ 90% of its FFB and left 10% FFB sell to third party.
Q3'17 will register better profit for palm oil business compare to RM 30 mil loss last yr - Q3'16
Timber business Logging license certification must completed by 2017 and the process should ended soon. Sudden drop in Log output in Jan'17 could be due to weather and license certification. Feb'17 log showed strong rebound mean the timber business back to normal. There are RM 26 mil inventory build up in last Q, it should translate to revenue this Q. Jan'17 Log and Plywood price has rebound from Dec'17. Tokyo Olympics 2020 construction work will start in 2017. Plywood price set for recovery from 2016.
Timber business registered loss in Q1'17 and return to profit in Q2'17. The Q3'17 should be remain profitable thanks to weaker RM - 5% weaker compare to Q2'17.
"Timber business Logging license certification must completed by 2017 and the process should ended soon. Sudden drop in Log output in Jan'17 could be due to weather and license certification. Feb'17 log showed strong rebound mean the timber business back to normal. There are RM 26 mil inventory build up in last Q, it should translate to revenue this Q. Jan'17 Log and Plywood price has rebound from Dec'17. Tokyo Olympics 2020 construction work will start in 2017. Plywood price set for recovery from 2016." [weng77]
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
eatsmall
1,556 posts
Posted by eatsmall > 2017-02-28 15:14 | Report Abuse
wow..like me wrote before..can kaput to 1.20..if keep on mabuk tuak can masuk batang lupar to 1.15.