Faster up! Before July 1(Tax timber increase more than 6000%), itu jilaka Sarawak Government. Ask government sendiri to cut the timber la. http://imgur.com/a/JKoYu
Timber is not the only business for jtiasa, further if tax charged for timber log, and jtiasa is not allowed to increase price ( if jtiasa is stupid as u say) then bad qr coming... business always business, increasing cost will lead slow on revenues, but not all...
Don miss a boat..... Learn from pos,drb,umw, from negative perception now Super attractive, News only news,they create n they can change like bandar malaysia (iwcity), Now not good tommorow become good...
Palm Oil To Bolster Growth Investment Merits A leader in the timber industry Significant contributions from the oil palm division going forward Beneficiary of a weaker MYR against the USD
Company Profile Jaya Tiasa Holdings (Jaya Tiasa) is involved in the manufacturing and distribution of plywood, logs and other timber products. It is also involved in the cultivation of oil palms.
Highlights Timber giant in Sarawak. Jaya Tiasa is one of Malaysia’s largest timber companies. It has timber concessions of over 700,000ha in Sarawak. While its timber division has been the group’s bread and butter, the subdued timber outlook – affected by macroeconomic forces – has seen slower growth in recent times. The tightening of state regulations has also hampered log production, which had already been dragged down further by weaker global demand. Plywood prices have also been weak. We estimate that it has fallen by over 11% as at Dec 2016 from its high of USD500 per cu m in Mar 2016. Palm oil segment’s turnaround. The weak timber outlook has been offset by Jaya Tiasa’s turnaround at its oil palm operations, which started development in 2002. The group has a sizeable oil palm estate with an estimated 69,589ha of plantable area to date. Of this, over 54% of its trees are in the prime mature age as at end-FY16 (Jun). This is estimated to rise to 65% as at end FY17. Jaya Tiasa’s plantation average age profile stands at approximately eight years and FFB yields can potentially be as high as 22.3 tonnes per ha. Coupled with strong CPO prices currently, with 1HFY17 averaging at MYR2,791/tonne, we believe the group is on track to post record earnings in its palm oil division. Beneficiary of a weak MYR. Timber companies are highly sensitive to fluctuations in the MYR/USD. This is as the bulk of their revenues are denominated in USD while the majority of their costs are in MYR. As such, Jaya Tiasa is a beneficiary of the weak MYR outlook ahead. Our house assumption has forecasted for MYR/USD at 4.43/4.25 for FY17-18 respectively. We estimate that every MYR0.10/USD change could impact the group’s earnings by up to 10-12%.
Company Report Card Latest results. Jaya Tiasa’s recent 2QFY17 results disappointed slightly due to lower contributions from the timber division. Its palm oil segment, however, was able to offset timber’s lower contributions due to higher yields and the current favourable CPO prices. The latter, realised for 2QFY17 at MYR2,760 per tonne, also helped in offsetting declining production volumes as a result of weather conditions. Balance sheet/cash flow. As at Dec 2016, Jaya Tiasa’s net gearing is at 56%. We estimate this to improve to 50% in FY17 on stronger cash flow and profit generation. ROE. The group achieved an ROE of 3% in FY16, but we expect this to grow to 5%/6% in FY17-18 respectively on the back of its palm oil segment. An upside risk would be stronger-than-expected contributions from its timber segment. Management. Jaya Tiasa is helmed by the Tiong family. Sarawak tycoon Tan Sri Tiong Hiew King is a major shareholder in the group, with an over 22% stake. His family members also sit on the board of directors.
Recommendation We like Jaya Tiasa for its strong palm oil outlook, as we project for the group’s 3-year earnings CAGR to grow at 22%. As plywood prices are seen to have bottomed in 2016, we also expect stronger contributions from this segment going forward. Our SOP-derived TP of MYR1.61 implies a 28% upside to current share price as at the time of writing. This TP is based on a DCF value for Jaya Tiasa’s log operations, replacement value for its plywood unit and a target 17x FY17 P/E for its plantations division. Our implied FY17F P/E and P/BV is at 13x and 0.6x respectively.
Sorry for those selling on today, you must either gain less than 10% profit or cut loss at a lower price... Can't get the big money in real soon! TP 2.50 in a year time!
timber is a cylindrical business, it wont be down forever, at least at the moment palm oil can brings in profit, while waiting timber to recover and once recover, with both sectors doing well the price is unstoppable, be patient.
I spent a lit bit time to digest the Jtiasa latest Q result...
Palm oil segment - Revenue RM 130 mil and profit before tax RM 29.3 mil close to my profit estimation RM 30 mil +- 5 mil
Timber segment - Perform better than expected..
Logs revenue RM 76.9 mils and profit RM 18 mil (much better) Wood processing RM 61 mil and lost RM -3.5 mi (est lost but not able determine the number)
After take a closer look at the logs business which much deviate from my estimation with such a strong results.
Revenue 76.9 mils with average log average selling price RM 669 which translated to sales of 114,900 cm3 log (Q3'17 logs production 86,234 cm2 logs) sales volume for logs increased by 71 %. With such a strong sales of logs exceed the total production look quite abnormal.. Furthermore there is 30% quote for logs export, this quarter could use up the quote for next export quote and depleting some logs inventory. Some of the logs use for wood processing... With the logs export quote use up for last Q and less production for log for this Q could create a double dip for log business for coming Q unless the log production pick up strong may and june.. Inconsistent of timber business cause it hard to est this business...
Just my observation, could be true or false...spend a little bit time to digest the log business...
drama Jtiasa will show evening, Im still hold rm1.1,cheap n safety, Give good signal for next week chart, I hope defensive rm 1.16 today, Hear demand CPO ramadhan n FFB mature June 2017,still cheap n collect,
No more palm planting, no more palm mill construction, excess equipments for timber logging and excess capacity for plywood/veneer plants. No more require capital investment. The debt had reduced Rm 85 millions as compared to last quarter. Soon, the company can issue bigger dividend to shareholders.
The production cost dropped about Rm10 millions last quarter for Palm oil sector as compared to the past few quarters. Hope to see more drop in the future.
With the 4th Palm oil mill in operation from Jan,17, the cost saving of Rm 10 mil per quarter or 40 millions per year will push the profit quite significant.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
azman71
9 posts
Posted by azman71 > 2017-05-25 20:02 | Report Abuse
jtiasa-cl i will gamble n try luck