datuk, wait! you should have a name instaed of just 'datuk'. wanna put you in case study for future reference. Please do not chance ID/Nick name. So, what do we address you as, datuk?
tajimasunrise-san, Datuk Ku Sheng is a nickname to datuk (ref: above posting as datuk.) We had requested for his (datuk) nick name and he like to be recognised as Datuk Ku Sheng. So Datuk Ku Sheng anolgy hypothesis will be registered as this sonn (maybe) will become a unique character ref. for MIECO, SOZO (HB) and few more undervalue counter.
Call him, he surely come and drops his opinion from his point of view in here.
The Pakistani substantial shareholder of Bandaraya is offering to buy up all the remaining shares and warrants at RM2.90 and RM1.80 respectively. Bandaraya is the controlling shareholder of MIECO. When the corporate exercise of Bandaraya is completed, the Pakistani shareholder will have complete control over MIECO. Very likely, the Pakistani would sell MIECO stake (56%)at market price, which is much higher than the current price of 44.5 sen. However, the time frame for this to take place could be as long as 1 year due to the involvement of various approvals. If one can hold, there might be significant gain in buying MIECO now.
Nothing much will happen to MIECO until after the important date of 26 September 2012. This is the date BRDB warrants expires. The Pakistani major shareholder will not do anything to BRDB too until that date. The reason is this: he is obliged to buy up BRDB warrants at RM1.80 per share. When the warrants expires, he pays nothing. After that date, probably things will begin to move especially when the Pakistani is in control of BRDB. BRDB controls MIECO by its 56% stake in MIECO. As mentioned before, BRDB is keen to hive off MIECO but at the right price.
Last Thursday BRDB announced that it had received an unconditional takeover from substantial shareholder Ambang Sehati, a company controlled by the Pakistani. The latter, which holds an 18.49% stake in BRDB, offered to acquire all BRDB shares for RM2.90 each, and all outstanding warrants for RM1.80 each. However, no specific date was given.
It would still take quite sometime before BRDB General Offer (GO) can be completed. Hence, those who hold MIECO shares would have to wait until the completion of GO before they can see any activity in MIECO.
Don't worry about the price drop of a few sen. MIECO shares are already at the rock bottom price. There is not much room for further drop because the asset value is a few times higher than the current price. As the machinery and equipment of the second plant are fairly new and advanced, the company can easily be sold at premium over the current price. This will take place when the Pakistani takes full control of BRDB.
The privatization of BRDB is confirmed and should be completed in the next few months. This brings the possibility of MIECO sale nearer to fruition. Mieco is still losing money but as pointed out before, the asset is worth quite a lot of money. Those who are brave might want to take some calculated risk. Of course, nothing is absolutely certain in the stock market but I think MIECO is worth a look at 39 sen apiece.
The takeover offer of BRDB has become unconditional with total share acceptance amount to 61.25% (including offeror's interest). This means the takeover is confirmed even if the remaining 38.75 shareholders reject the offer.
what has this to do with MIECO? This means the Pakistani is in full control of BRDB which in turn controls MIECO. He will be able to make a firm decision concerning the disposal or capital restructuring of MIECO. Watch out for new corporate developments of MIECO next few months.
The Pakistani major shareholder has obtained more 90% of the BRDB shares and BRDB will be suspended followed by delisting after 4 Oct 2012. BRDB still controls MIECO through its 56% stake. At NAB of RM1.54, the MIECO stake is worth RM181 milion, which is very small compared with the total value of BRDB at RM1.9 billion.
The major shareholder is very focused on property development of BRDB and there is high possibility they would hive off the MIECO stake. Objectively, how much is MIECO shares worth in the event of disposal, taking into consideration the pathetic state of the chipboard industry?
Well, the NAB is RM1.54 apiece. Let's say they sell off the stake at 50% discount, which will work out to 77 sen per share. The current price of MIECO is 38 sen. This means the potential gain is 100% in the event of MGO to minority shareholder.
These are arm chair calculations and we do not know for certainty whether it will happen and when it will happen. However, for the MIECO price of 38 sen per share, the downside risk is very very limited.
i was in thailand in sept......my associate there brought me to Vanachai gruop....the competitors of mieco .....the business there was unbelievable......Vanachai is the biggest player in chipboard....mieco rank third.....is not making money and a non core business for BRD.....and BRD is in the process of privatize by the Pakistanis..
Evergreen is the second largest ....price had been heading south.....what hapeen when the siamese and the malaysian sit down together...let yr imigination run wild....with the story of Vanachain + Mieco + evergreen....
The parent company of MIECO, BRDB has been suspended pending delisting with effect from today. As of the last filing, The owner controls more than 92% of BRDB. There are 3 possible ways BRDB can restructure MIECO:
1) Sell the entire stake of 56% in MIECO to raise cash; 2) Sell all the assets of chipboard manufacturing to raise cash but keep the listing status of MIECO for other business; 3) Issue new shares for private placement to potential investors.
Whichever way of the above method is implemented, the price of MIECO has to be substantially above the current price of 38 sen
Many furniture companies in Malaysia buy chipboard from Vanachai because of the lower price. Mieco is not able to compete them with price because of the higher operation cost. However, Mieco can produce premium board like very low-VOC chipboard. I think the possible way is Vanachai buy the shares of Mieco from Ambang Sehati. I already started to accumulate the shares..... lol
The price of MIECO remains in the doldrums and the volume in the pathetic state. But as soon as you see price spiking and volume ballooning, get ready for some excitement.
The ultimate controlling shareholder of MIECO is busy consolidating his prized acquisition of BRDB, which has property assets worth a couple of billions. As soon as he puts the big house in order, he would think about what to do with the smaller house. Hence, playing MIECO is a game patience. But the early birds will catch the worm.
MIECO is showing some signs of life today, kicking up 3 sen and a transacted volume of 281,000 units. Not too bad for a sleepy counter. There is nothing to be excited about MIECO for now, unless, unless the price and volume continue its incremental trend.
For a MIECO rally to be confirmed, the share price needs to breach the 50 sen barrier with accompanying high volumes, say more than a few million shares a day.
MIECO continues to show signs life today, moving up 3 sen to closed at 44.5 sen. Volume has picked up quite a bit too, hitting 978,800 units traded. The parent company BRDB will be delisted in a few days time, on 29 Oct 2012.
With the privatization of BRDB wrapped up, it might be time for MIECO to show some actions. Keep MIECO on your radar. If price continues to inch up and volume continues to expand, be ready for some interesting moves.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Namoyaki Takarajima
1,530 posts
Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-07-16 15:33 | Report Abuse
datuk, wait! you should have a name instaed of just 'datuk'. wanna put you in case study for future reference. Please do not chance ID/Nick name. So, what do we address you as, datuk?