Last time bought @2.19 n sold on panic @ 2.19. Lost brokerageeeee! Sabar....Patience, all good things take time to develop.This time bought @ 2.50....HOPE makes us live. Someone set @ 3.00. Waiting. Every puppy has his day every Doggie has his way....Waterloo.. fight on OSK. Investing ..waiting...Good night.The morning Sun will bring some light....HOPE
It was a typical day when investors panic, Rhb shares were sold on news that it was the acquirer. To these investors it was bad news as Rhb has to issue more shares. They do not understand it was just a way to get around Aabar. They failed to understand that this is a merger between the 3 banks, and 1+1+1=4. On seeing Rhb shares retreating, Osk shareholders panic. To these investors this merger is the same as the usual take over, they have no idea what Rhb will have to do to merge with the other two. It is dangerous to invest without fully understanding what is a merger and what is an acquisition. They failed to understand what was the objective behind this exercise. Do you think with all the experts, from both Rhb and Osk investment, that they will undertake this if it is at a disadvantage to Rhb. When news was out, Rhb was value at 10.00=1.4 NTA , they started buying Rhb shares. When news was out that Rhb will be the acquirer, they started selling. They fail to understand it is good news the merger is on. Azlan88 understand Rhb will be worth more after the merger.
When RHBIB acquired (or merged with?) OSKIB, it was good news all round (to RHBIB, OSK Equities and OLH); but the minority shareholders got nothing, even the share price of OSK did not rise then. OLH alone got a good deal in the enlarged RHBIB. Shareholders did not get any special dividend or any cash distribution. Now comes the new merger. How is OSK going to benefit from this exercise? Maybe, it is good news the merger is on. But for OSK shareholders, what will they get? Maybe empty looks.
That is why Osk holding is valued at below NTA. It is at a discount because of uncertainties. With perfect information Osk holding would not be trading at a discount of NTA. It depends on how much risks you are willing to take when you are investing. Going forward, you have to ask questions like, if no merger were to take place, what would Osk plans be? Azlan88 has already explained to you if a merger were to take place, what Osk will do. What are ong's plans with the merged entity shares? Ong has already said Osk will acquire new business. Being a small company in terms of its business today, big funds will not invest in osk holding. Ong has to change this. Please read what I have written earlier.
no more bullet to reload .....so sad ....on this counter....waiting for Mr Ong to fight for us on next month 10 OCT already 90 days .... hope have good news to shareholder .
agree with gheekong. when RHBIB took over OSKIB in 2012, OSKIB was valued at RM2.15 billion. Now the OSK is holding RHB shares worth RM2.3 billion. Not bad considering that OSKIB must have been taken over at slightly higher valuation then. If OSKIB is still exist in current being, it may not have the opportunity to grow as fast as after it merged with RHBIB. I believe the same goes when RHB merge with CIMB. As a larger entity, CIMB/RHB post merger will likely to post higher profit due to cost synergy and also market domination, and hence their valuation.
As I write earlier, OSK will benefit from the increasing valuation of larger CIMB/RHB. Shareholders of CIMB/RHB, which constitutes EPF, Khazanah, Aabar, Mitsubishi, OSK, will likely receive more dividends to lower down their cost of holding.
Thus, OLH might be interested to increase his share in OSK by way of swapping the shares of OSKProp. Therefore he needs to depress the share price of OSK and increase the OSKProp to get more share. This is just my prediction. After all, it is up to OLH to make his move.
Banks borrow money to make money. The cost of borrowing will be lower for the larger merged entity. Stockraider knows ong has increased his holding of osk shares from 30% to more than 40% within a year. Hope he will offer you a fair and reasonable price this time if he takes Osk private.
As if you do not know OLH. No special dividend was given; no cash distribution from sale of OSKIB; all RHB dividends plowed back as RHB shares; and "a fair and reasonable price this time" would be 5 sen (at most) above the last closing OSK price. (The last item being my educated guess).
I must admit OSK is a strong counter. It is only that the grand daddy is so tight-fist. What to do now since he is the major shareholder. Just wait lah!!!!!. and hope he is in a happier mood.
@Gheekong, thanks for your very constructive and valuable comments. None of us can be sure of the outcome at this moment but if you take a moment to see the price action since the 9 July 2014 the picture is pretty clear. The biggest boy in the 3-way combo i.e CIMB spent most of its time under it's reference price of RM7.28; in fact even with the purported rumour on 28 Aug 2014 as reported in The Edge that this was going to be a doggie-style merger i.e RHBCap taking over CIMB instead of the original full-frontal CIMB taking over RHBCap - it could only spend at most miserable 5 days (mainly on 28 Aug itself !) and most of it on much below average volume (using the 12 days volume-moving average). In contrast , look at the price action of RHBCap (which has the most relevance in connection with OSK's share price and valuation) - except for a brief "one day kiss" on 18 Sept to RM8.73, it has spent it's entire time hitherto way above it's reference price of RM8.76. As for MBSB (the problem kid for our EPF), piggying on the backs of CIMB/RHBCap combo, it has also been hovering above it's reference price of RM2.22. Hence, in arriving at the "so called fair price", for OSK for both scenarios, we have to keep the "reference price" of all the 3 relevant parties as well as our OSK in mind. OSK's closing price was RM 1.93 on the 8 Jul 2014. Although it is not a party to this 3-way merger of CIMB/RHBCap/MBSB to create a very strong Islamic banking entity, please bear in mind OSK has been strong and resilient throughout these past 76 days and has remained so not only well above it's reference RM 1.93 closing price on 8 Jul 2014 but also remained well above its upside gap ( 2.00 to 2.13) created on 10 July 2014 when the merger was formally announced by the above 3 parties. Of course, the technical analyst may well point out that it is highly possible that this gap may get filled if and when there is "no good news" regarding the merger discussions ( in about 18 days time). However, my own take is that this intended merger is serious business (the instruction to do so is probably form "higher ups; just my educated guess as it has been long overdue for a consolidation of the banking sector - 9 banks and MBSB is just too many, individually too weak and smallish)). Also, bearing in mind this is no play play exercise, it is unlikely that the whole thing will get scuttled just because of unhappiness or objections from Aabar or OSK - these 2 each holding approximately 20% and 10% respectively in RHBCap are no impediments so long as there is a will to see this through. I am hopeful the above merger exercise will go through and this will be just the beginning of a very exciting development which may see Malaysia with 3 strong and well capitalised banks that can compete not just in South East Asia but also beyond to whole of Asia. Singapore has had a leg-up in this respect and you can see they now have 3 really solid banks with foot prints in so many parts of Asia ! However, in the unlikely event that the whole thing collapses or get called off, I think OSK will not collapse back to the RM1.75 level mentioned by Gheekong. I know others have harped on OSK's valuation in this thread before - do your own calculations and good luck to those vested. 10 Oct is not so far away - patience is key here !
@Gheekong, thanks ! I think highly of your astute comments/postings on this OSK thread and please do continue to share your observations and opinions for all of our mutual benefits ..... cheerios !
Because this counter is goreng up due to news of merger....now look like no news of merger either sucess or not...and every one is worry then start take profit liao ....even quater report is good share also can not push so high. .. this time who buy on top prise like me very dispointed dont know their boss mr ong have any plan to bring us up ..if merger not sucesss.... take 2 to 3 years liao ...aiyoo
Introducing MY's First IPO Fund for Sophisticated Investors!
MQ Chat
New Update. Discover investment communities that resonate with your ideas
MQ Trader
M & A Value Partners IPO Equity Fund has been launched - Targeted 13% Return p.a
Latest Videos
0:17
New IPO: Building management systems (BMS), solar thermal systems and energy-saving services provider, Solar District Cooling Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 514 views | 3 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 12696 views | 11 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
SP0094701
654 posts
Posted by SP0094701 > 2014-09-18 15:38 | Report Abuse
drop again...