dun chase la, Kim sifu... Earn less but safer... This time the OP ken last more than 3 green candles for the whole week, later the candles burn out how?
I have a look again on HTVB analyst report over the weekend and based on Estern Steel performance review. This is not a buy or sell call as there are assumption in my calculations and there is flaws as well. Anyway:
Annual production capacity = 2.7million MT Let assume 90% production as per current quarter = 2.7mil x 90% = 2.43mil MT Annual revenue = 2.43mil MT x 2,800 = RM 6804 mil
Gross profit margin is 13% = RM 6804mil x 13% = 884.52 mil Can I assume Net profit margin =10%? = RM6804 mil x 10% = 680.4mil
Hiaptek percentage in ES is 27.3 and therefore = RM 680.4mil x 27.3% = RM185.75 mil
EPS (from ES alone) = RM185.75mil / 1747 mil (NOSH) = RM 0.106 EPS from Hiaptek = RM 0.12
Using current PE of 8, it should be around RM 0.96 If you think this is growth stock, it deserve a PE of 10 which will be RM 1.20
I think I'm taking very conservative calculation because the Gross profit margin should be higher as the production cost should be much lower when all their auxiliary facilities are in full operation and the GPM will be even better if they produce HRC. If I assume 13% due to HRC and operation improvement, the EPS is 13c to 15c. As for Hiaptek business, their EPS might be between 1c to 1.5c.. But at the moment, I'm just using the figures provided in the corporate presentation.
I know there are concern on the steel price has drop alot but raw material price has drop in tandem as well. For the trade war, ES only supplies 11% to US. Furthermore, product production follow country of origin. So i believe no impact. Will Hiaptek price drop lower? I don’t know but to me, i think steel price might have bottom and the world is into recovery. Many countries are building infrastructure. Malaysia alone will be rolling out mega project and with data centre hype, i believed steel will turn around soon. I would like to suggest you have a look at the hiaptek 27th AGM minutes & report. It given me a very good insight into Hiaptek operation on how the company addresses the issue price dumping. Below is the link. Again, i don’t have insider news and I based on available information on net. I hope this helps. Happy investing.
WoW !!! What a performance today, reaching 50.5 cents, go go Goreng King, Kim Sifu very the Keng! Phoebe Sifu said: PE of 10 which will be RM 1.20 wor, how? ..........hehehe............................
I be using the current PE and target somewhere RM 0.80 to RM 1. I will wait till end December to see their update on the HRC. That is the moat of the company. I can't wait for the next AGM actually.
KKim sifu, I am building some road blocks again, Mali mali murah murah juai, 480 sekilo to 520 sekilo pun ada.... Tangan cepat ada tangan lsmbat tarak..😁😁😁
This morning the bendera peachaa and touch 52 weeks new high... But lembik before half day closing. Itu lilin twinkle twinkle little star again, red star some more. Any time bomb until kim sifu oso got to lali lintang pukang..😆😆😆
Start next year ES will distribute 30% profit as dividend. If Hiaptek implement the same dividend policy, it will be 4c. It is about 8.5% DY as current price. Hope the management will look into it holistically
The future FOB China price of rebar and HRC is between RM 2300 and RM 2450, but I am unable to find the price of billets or slabs. I estimate that steel slab is less expensive and based on the analyst's presentation, the production cost for Eastern Steel is roughly RM 2430. I'm not sure how much freight charges cost, but I believe Eastern Steel's production costs are very competitive Futhermore, import good have the risk of FX fluctuation and charges. One of the reason they able to manage the cost is is they have their own power plant which cater to 90% of their needs and they have a conveyor all the way from the port to transport their raw material and product. This will be a big help especially with the rise of diesel.
Horsey sifu, I say say oni, indeed Very thankfuk for Phoebe sifu and your sharing .Kim sifu oso. Sorry if I missed out anyone who share. Tarak cukup tidur..
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Kim
4,345 posts
Posted by Kim > 2024-07-05 11:18 | Report Abuse
49 want join?
hehehe