Nice move today. +5.12%, with nice volume. Majority odds swing low has been printed on 27/10. There's a gap fill near 1.45. Very ambitious and minority odds it'll get there this year with KLCI markets in zig zag mode. But if KLCI can do a strong run for several weeks, then, odds improve. Unfortunately, I didn't manage to get my standard position, the position size is smaller than target, but still nice to see my holdings rise by 5.17% today.
Helps cover some of the red moves on the other parts of my portfolio, to allow my portfolio to hit all time new high again today! Thanks ANNJOO and thanks CSCSTEL!
I bought this counter for the dividend. Never expect the final dividend to drop from 14 sen in 2021 to just 3 sen last year. Should be able to pay more this year. Just keep, it only constitutes a small fraction of my portfolio.
If they keep up the good performance qtr to qtr basis, expect to be incentivized for holding or adding to your portfolio because price is still attractive to enter.
Steel counter is the next theme to goreng. Upcoming Construction Tender Jobs that have been delayed for awarding and expected to be announced, inclusive of existing contracts... - MRT3 - LRT - ECRL - Penang Mega Infra - Subang Airport - Mega Flood Projects - Johor Catalyst, RTS & HSR - Pan Borneo - Indonesia new capital in Nusantara, Kalimantan
CSCSTEL EPS is cyclical, and we just came off a cycle low last year. Maybe I think 70%-90% chance that over the next 5 years, we'll see double digit EPS again, with prices in the range between 1.5 to 2. My cost price is around RM1.15. Assuming it takes 5 years to hit these prices, the annualized Price returns ignoring Dividends are: RM1.5 = 5.5% per annum RM2 = 11.7% per annum
It's lowest dividend yield is 2.4%.
Thus, its good odds that if you can buy CSCSTEL cheap, the odds of getting a total returns of 8% to 14% per annum over 5 years or higher is very decent.
If own, no need to stress when prices will go above RM1.5 - it could take many years or next year. Nobody knows. The key is diversify, own small, and just relax. One day over next 5 years, it should get there and these kind of returns should be EPF over the period. Don't do active trading, commissions will just eat a huge chunk and if you play the buy high, sell higher price, inevitably, some of your trades will have losses that will eat into your cumulative profits, where after commissions, you may end up losing to FD rates if you do nothing.
Ternium is a South American steel company. Although it has some mining operations, these serve mainly in-house and are a small component relative to the steel output. It achieved revenue and profit growth through organic growth and acquisitions over the past 11 years. It has a strong financial position and a good capital allocation plan, creating value for shareholders. A Valuation based on the steel price cycle shows a sufficient margin of safety, making it an investment opportunity. https://i.postimg.cc/kgw7QWJk/Ternium.png
The company still hasn't announced its final quarter financial results for last year. It would pay its final dividend for last financial year only this year, likely in early July as in previous years. It is possible that it may pay 8 to 10 sen a share.
Should perform much, much better last year than it did in 2022 but its share price has not reflected this. Hope investors don't have to wait for too long to see its share price move upwards.
CSC Steel is trading at a PE of under 10, a dividend yield of over 7% and has net cash of RM350 million or over 80 sen a share. TSH is trading at a PE of over 15, a dividend yield of only 2.5% and after deducting loans and borrowings, its net cash position is -RM50 million. Malaysia is under the single-tier tax system. Malaysian shareholders are not required to pay income tax on dividends received.
Construction activities should pick up, meaning more demand for steel products. Government can impose duties on imported products to protect local steel industries.
According to Damodaran, projecting the performance of cyclical companies based on the current performance can lead to mis-valuations. He opined that for such companies we should look at the performance over the cycle – the normalized performance When I carried out such an analysis of CSC Steel, I found that there is still a margin of safety based on its current price. Refer to page 20 of the article. https://notice.shareinvestor.com/email/newsletter/invest/pdf/Vol197_Invest-01Mar.pdf
Judging from past records, CSC Steel should announce the timelines next week for its final dividend payment amounting to 9.4 sen a share. This should support its share price.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stockraider
31,556 posts
Posted by stockraider > 2023-05-21 18:21 | Report Abuse
Strong earning recovery coming mah!