Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-11-22 22:04 | Report Abuse

Relax la. those complaining must be buying above Rm1.4

Posted by cwkhor > 2016-11-22 22:06 | Report Abuse

sifu said don't buy stock without growth. Can hevea beat last year result?

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-11-22 22:10 | Report Abuse

cwkhor sure buy above 1.35.

Posted by WaAdaLui > 2016-11-22 22:12 | Report Abuse

10bagger10 sifu....how? Tmr jump boat or hold?

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-11-22 22:16 | Report Abuse

waadalui ur average price how much?

Posted by WaAdaLui > 2016-11-22 22:20 | Report Abuse

$1.35

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-11-22 22:27 | Report Abuse

i myself will certainly hold due to hevea's excellent fcf. will top up some more if drop below 1.35.

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-11-22 22:29 | Report Abuse

my buying price is very low. i can get +-6% dividend if hevea give 5 cents of dividend. so no harm holding it.

Posted by yfchong > 2016-11-22 22:31 | Report Abuse

Wait for contra margin trader to sell first....until the dust settle... still got time.

Posted by Ryan88 > 2016-11-22 22:43 | Report Abuse

Tmr will drop more base on normal market response, corrext,??

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-22 22:45 | Report Abuse

The most Hevea can go down is Rm 1.42 loh...!!

Posted by 10bagger10 > 2016-11-22 22:46 | Report Abuse

yes, they are some inpatient ppl.

Posted by sklyte > 2016-11-22 22:58 | Report Abuse

Cimb upgraded to 2.30, dont be sorhai

Flb export to us, hevea export to china and japan, somemore all different products, when people are ignorant, thats where they fail, ahhahaha let the smart one steal ur money

Posted by SP0094701 > 2016-11-22 23:09 | Report Abuse

robert come bacj drop to 1.00

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-22 23:10 | Report Abuse

U think china and japan stupid meh ??

If export to USA no good price....sure export to Japan and China will be also low mah....!!

Posted by sasword > 2016-11-22 23:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Andrewhlc > 2016-11-22 23:51 | Report Abuse

《FOREX GAIN 是bonus，可遇不可求》

Hevea 在今天终于公布了 FY16Q3 的季度业绩。 就如 bluefun 小弟昨天于文章里所提过的“美金优势” ，预测“出口股” 在 FY16Q3 的 revenue 会微增，而 profit 与 EPS 则会微降， 因为 FY15Q3 正值 FOREX gain 的最高峰期，所以就会面对所谓的 "profit pressure"。

Net profit：
FY15Q3 - 18.116m
FY16Q3 - 17.233m

EPS：
FY15Q3 - 4.44cents
FY16Q3 - 3.70cents

当然 bluefun 手中并没有 crystal ball 能准确预测一家公司的季度业绩，不过 “美元优势” 对于一家“出口股” 的结果可是可大可小的。

当然 net profit 与 EPS 若比起去年同季度退步不一定说公司盈利不好，就如 bluefun 所说的，很多投资者把退步当成 "世界末日"。 试问着，有哪一家公司是一直维持进步的季度业绩？？ 在这经济充满严峻的考验，YTD 比起去年好就已经不错了 XD

除了 profit 与 EPS， cash flow其实蛮重要的，还有 changes in inventories, receivables, payables, debt & cash。Overall 还是得看啊，就如你喜欢一位女生，难道你只注重“她的样貌”，而忽略了她“内心的一面”， 哈哈哈 :P

根据文告， net profit 微降是因为受到 minimum wages 于 2016年7月 implementation 的影响。 若仔细分析 Hevea FY16Q3 季度业绩的话，这一个季度公司面临 0.877m 的 realized FOREX loss，若比起 FY15Q3 的 realized FOREX GAIN 4.99m。

以下就是公司季度的 realized FOREX GAIN/(LOSS)

FY2015：
Q1 - 2.873m
Q2 - 1.220m
Q3 - 4.985m
Q4 - (2.645m)

FY2015 - 6.433m

FY2016：
Q1 - (1.193m)
Q2 - 2.957m
Q3 - (0.877m)

YTDQ3 - 0.888m

当然 bluefun 说过 FOREX 的优势是一把 “双刃刀”，若是 net currency exposure 是 positive 的话，foreign currency 的强劲将会带给公司 positive 的 impact，例如 increasing in revenue/net profit/cash。

而若是 net currency exposure 是 negative 的话， foreign currency 的 强势则会带给公司 negative impact，例如必须偿还更多的 interest on borrowings，更多的钱于 oversea vendor，而无形中造成 realized in FOREX LOSS。

摊开 FOREX，hevea 的现金流 cash flow 依然良好，处于 Free cash flow 的状态。而 debt 也逐渐减少了只剩下 15.1m。 公司 cash on hand 110m，处于 net cash 94.9m 的 position。

Hevea 也宣布了股息 1.3cents 于 FY16Q3，比起 FY15Q3 的 0.5cents好太多了。

P/S: 纯属分享分析与吹吹水，买卖还是问你自己心里的声音 :)

凡事都有两面，看好看坏看你自己。

Think different, think out of the box

:)

bluefun
22.11.2016

Posted by Ryan88 > 2016-11-22 23:51 | Report Abuse

Cos i buy at low long time ago. Wan to clear stock for yr end

Posted by Andrewhlc > 2016-11-23 00:08 | Report Abuse

from my point of view, we are no need clear our stock as long as USD currency is still Strong and company performs well, if you clear your stocks, what stock you are going to buy? 3 yrs ago i already hold this stock, i bought and i sold, repeatedly i bought and i sold again, at the end i come back, missing part of the best chance to get huge profit. so, if company continues doing well and continue pay high dividend in future with less debt. i think no need to sell it except you get company better than hevea and company is no further growth.

Posted by stockraider > 2016-11-23 00:15 | Report Abuse

Raider agree...right long term strategy...!!

Posted by IBanker > 2016-11-23 00:22 | Report Abuse

Hevea is suffering with extremely bad balance sheet and earning prospect. no hope for hevea. sell.

Posted by IBanker > 2016-11-23 00:22 | Report Abuse

SELL CALL for HEVEA. TOMORROW LIMIT DOWN! RUN FOR LIVE!!!

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-11-23 00:38 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow
WTK
HEVEA
Century
Genetec
Gap down together
Followed by side show
FLB for further fall due to short terms/greedy/falling knife trader run to exit.
:)
Holland is the destination

Posted by patterntrader1168 > 2016-11-23 00:45 | Report Abuse

CIMB TP 2.02 -> 2.37

Posted by chamlo > 2016-11-23 03:45 | Report Abuse

Trump policy-no TPPA first day in office.

Posted by gogogogo > 2016-11-23 05:50 | Report Abuse

cham lo..bought hevea not enough

Posted by Bizfuneng > 2016-11-23 06:42 | Report Abuse

Posted by patterntrader1168 > Nov 23, 2016 12:45 AM | Report Abuse

CIMB TP 2.02 -> 2.37


What is the reasons given by CIMB to upgrade TP to 2.37.

Posted by Kukubird888 > 2016-11-23 07:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by latjiu > 2016-11-23 09:10 | Report Abuse

down as expected, collected some

Posted by wajatimur_28 > 2016-11-23 09:21 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5266101

Posted by wajatimur_28 > 2016-11-23 09:22 | Report Abuse

Single-Tier Second Interim Dividend of 1.30 sen per ordinary share of RM0.25 each (post-split) in respect of the financial year ending 31 December 2016.

Posted by uncle988 > 2016-11-23 09:26 | Report Abuse

Still in collection mode, bb is buying, managed to top up some before it goes up again.

Posted by nich0las > 2016-11-23 09:29 | Report Abuse

USD still 4.40. Nothing to worry.

Posted by limchimleong > 2016-11-23 09:29 | Report Abuse

蓝欢兄，谢谢你！

Posted by Chengkai Kck > 2016-11-23 09:57 | Report Abuse

Disappointed result...but better than qr

Posted by sasword > 2016-11-23 10:17 | Report Abuse

就是爱看“聪明人”一边流血一边讲不痛...爽死了。

Posted by buckbunny > 2016-11-23 10:22 | Report Abuse

buy Inari now,,

Posted by buckbunny > 2016-11-23 10:30 | Report Abuse

good dividend payout..

Posted by wajatimur_28 > 2016-11-23 10:43 | Report Abuse

Relax bro

Posted by kayne285 > 2016-11-23 10:44 | Report Abuse

Hi all,

Anyone care to explain how come there is forex lost for Hevea? I noticed similar trend ( -ve 1% 1.5%) for company that export and trade in USD.

If I take avg of Q216 vs avg of Q316 (USDMYR) - it should be a +1.5% instead...

Posted by buckbunny > 2016-11-23 11:05 | Report Abuse

no significant benefit for forex..apart from the selling exchange benefit..not to forget material and machinary buy in cost also increased,,also domestic inflation rate..and labour cost also increased..

Posted by Andrewhlc > 2016-11-23 11:53 | Report Abuse

1.40 on-q, but i cnt get it...hai ya..

Posted by gogogogo > 2016-11-23 14:50 | Report Abuse

should b able to get it next few days..bunny inari is most impacted stock of Trump US first policy..you better sell all and buy hevea next few days.

Posted by weechin53 > 2016-11-23 15:19 | Report Abuse

What about warrant B? Anyone interested?

Posted by gogogogo > 2016-11-23 16:03 | Report Abuse

yes..i will buy later

Posted by Andrewhlc > 2016-11-23 17:17 | Report Abuse

USD 4.4445, it keeps moving up, may be hard to get cheap price

Posted by gogogogo > 2016-11-23 17:29 | Report Abuse

true

Posted by Ryan88 > 2016-11-23 22:50 | Report Abuse

Icon effects lost ?? LOL

Posted by Budapest > 2016-11-23 23:29 | Report Abuse

Wait and see

Posted by latjiu > 2016-11-24 09:53 | Report Abuse

back to uptrend