Posted by Sapphire > 2013-07-07 22:32 | Report Abuse

cocoa bean cost price up soon...

Posted by Sapphire > 2013-07-07 22:38 | Report Abuse

profit margin only 7.49% avg year... what if sales volume drop....? >"<" scare scare

Posted by ALaw > 2013-07-18 23:44 | Report Abuse

When is next quarter result for gcb?

Posted by nightrader > 2013-07-22 13:29 | Report Abuse

cocoa price go up means good profit here?

Posted by cheeseburger > 2013-07-24 19:07 | Report Abuse

cocoa is needed to make chocolates...people will still consume chocolates, bakery, celebrations, drinks, presents, worldwide demand is strong for cocoa.

Posted by hornetsjet > 2013-07-24 22:56 | Report Abuse

Yeah people love chocolate, especially girls.

Posted by hobson64 > 2013-07-24 23:18 | Report Abuse

Good company and poised for further growth to be the largest regional player.

Posted by amandang > 2013-07-24 23:40 | Report Abuse

hope GCB share price head to north~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Posted by cheeseburger > 2013-07-25 11:25 | Report Abuse

Report indicates grinding of cocoa beans in Asia continued to surge to 897,000 tonnes in 2012/2013, versus 874,000 tonnes in 2011/2012, according to estimates by the International Cocoa Organisation. Cocoa demand is still growing.

Posted by Sapphire > 2013-07-31 00:59 | Report Abuse

girls love rich man laa..rich man buy chocolate..

Posted by nightrader > 2013-07-31 13:27 | Report Abuse

weak ringgit good or bad news?

Posted by cheeseburger > 2013-07-31 15:31 | Report Abuse

it depends whether the business is USD or MYR based.

Posted by nightrader > 2013-07-31 22:29 | Report Abuse

for GCB good? GCB hv major foreign business

Posted by hobson64 > 2013-07-31 22:31 | Report Abuse

spot on Nightrader....

Posted by hobson64 > 2013-07-31 22:34 | Report Abuse

i m sure they hedge a lot especially dealing with commodities ie. bean...and when ringgit turns weaker, their forward contracts will give rise to extraordinary items ie. gains on currency depreciation.

Posted by nightrader > 2013-07-31 22:58 | Report Abuse

yes indeed GCB does hedge and wud gain with better US chocolate consumption

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-08-16 00:15 | Report Abuse

Dear Kim Yap Lau or Any Sifu

1)cocoa price go up means good profit here ?
2)weak ringgit good or bad news?

I has great interest in this stock, can you please explain further what is impact to this stock as two factors above.

Regards
Penang Ran

Posted by hornetsjet > 2013-08-16 19:13 | Report Abuse

Cocoa Price is positive since they are selling the cocoa also, and weak ringgit is good for Guanchong also because they can earn more by trading in USD.

Posted by cheeseburger > 2013-08-16 19:23 | Report Abuse

if you are interested to this stock, you shall first understand the business this counter is in.

Cocoa price up is good for cocoa planter, a grinder likewise they would be paying higher price to procure the raw material for processing in house and supply to worldwide market.
GCB is fourth largest cocoa grinder in the world. Other big players in cocoa food sector such as Barry Callebaut in Switzerland, ADM and Cargill in US.

GCB will also face profit or loss in currency however the impact is less significant. For 2012 as example, gross profit was RM164 millions, losses in foreign currency was RM1.7 millions. About 1%.

To manage the above transaction exposure, GCB uses Forward currency contracts and Commodity futures contracts to mitigate risk. They will hedge their sales and purchases denominated in USD, AUD, Pound and Euro. They will also monitor and manage the inventory of raw material changes inline with cocoa bean price movements.

Though Europe and North America economy crisis has impact to the demand however we can see there is already growing demand in Asia. May overtake Europe and US one day as largest consumer of chocolat product.

And with the setup of second facilities at Batam will further boost the capacity, further strengthen their position and lower their production cost in long run.

Posted by yazid7655 > 2013-08-21 10:57 | Report Abuse

target RM1.99

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-08-21 16:03 | Report Abuse

Thank you ,Cheeseburger.
I appreciate so much for your comments.

Posted by Hustle > 2013-08-21 16:08 | Report Abuse

Cheeseburger basically what factor will lead cocoa grinder plan to make profit?
May be cocoa price or RM currency rate?
Since I'm not really familiar at this sector.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-21 16:10 | Report Abuse

Penang Ran,
I remember you said you liked my postings. Since you are interested in this apa ini GCB, why not read some of my thoughts on this company GCB in order to have a balance view?

Posted by Hustle > 2013-08-21 16:17 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz mind to share a bit basic knowledge regarding to the cocoa sector?

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-08-21 16:55 | Report Abuse

Hi Cheeseburger,

Few questions to ask.( GCB )
1. Is the company just rolled over the bank borrowing for dividend pay out and settle bank loan ?
2. I notice their short term loan has increase from 2010 ( 192 mil ) ,2011 (427 mil )then 2012 ( 512 mil ) ,Why they have to keep on increase the loan and for what purpose ?

I'm interest in this stock just for reason as follow :
Number 4 in the world and it is consumer product
Profitable with sales growth
Back up by brand chocolate contract ( Mars and etc )

Please correct if my information is wrong.

Your reply is highly appreciated
Penang ran

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-08-21 20:00 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz

Good evening.
Yes,I read thru few round of your early posting. Is interesting and analytical.Even this morning I using your analysis as benchmark for further study. But,I just can not underestand whether the bank loan is miss used or used to finance the sales they get ?
I'm planning to hold this counter for long term.Thus, seek for more input before invest.

Thanks
Penang Ran

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-21 20:24 | Report Abuse

I have a few postings about gab after looking into its pat years financials. One serious thing I found about it is its very poor cash flow for many years. For me cash flow is more important than accounting earnings. So to me this is a lemon. But I could be wrong. You don't have to follow me.

Even if you are very bullish about this company, just doesn't put all your eggs, not even the major part of your eggs there.

I very rarely tell others like this. Again I could be wrong and you don't have to follow me.

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-08-21 21:58 | Report Abuse

Thanks for your advise. Thank you.

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-08-22 22:05 | Report Abuse

GCB report has out. The result is so bad. No idea how the company to ride thru the huge offshore loan? Thanks to kcchongnz pointed out the cash flow problem they faced.
Oh.. put under watch list until positive sign appear.

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-22 23:26 | Report Abuse

farking is coming soon for a tub of lard! :)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-08-23 06:08 | Report Abuse

How bad?

Posted by Penang Ran > Aug 22, 2013 10:05 PM | Report Abuse
GCB report has out. The result is so bad. No idea how the company to ride thru the huge offshore loan? Thanks to kcchongnz pointed out the cash flow problem they faced.
Oh.. put under watch list until positive sign appear.

Let us annualized GCB's earnings for the whole year of 2013 basing on its latest second quarter results just out.

GCB is expected to earn an operating profit after tax (NOPAT) of 58m for the year. It needs 590m in net working capital to do this; out of this 508m in inventories and 176m in receivables. This huge inventories is consistent every year. Is it some kind of hedging required? commodity future? Is it a good business to have such high exposure in working capital but earning just a pittance in comparison?

What kind of return GCB get from using its capital to do this business? Its invested capital is closed to a billion, but just earns 58m in NOPAT, or a miserable return of invested capital of just 6%. Is 6% good?

Looking at its cash flow, again there is no free cash flow from the operations, just like the years before. That is why you can see its borrowing becomes bigger, bigger and bigger each year without fail. Its short-term loan is 536m! This is because a company needs money for capital expenses, even maintenance works need capital expenses, capital for doing other investments which GCB is very fond of doing it everywhere in the world while it can't even keep its local house in order, some more pay dividends when there is no money to do so.

I can place my money in ASM and get 6% return each year, almost risk free. Would one want to put money in a highly risky business for that return? If not, how much would you want that return to be? For me looking at GCB operations and cash flow, my minimum required return is 15%.

Posted by cheeseburger > 2013-08-23 10:01 | Report Abuse

just bought..

Posted by happy_farmer > 2013-08-23 12:58 | Report Abuse

Why the earnings compared to same period last year decreased so much?

Posted by cheeseburger > 2013-08-23 13:41 | Report Abuse

revenue almost similar by comparison, affected by cocoa market price.

Posted by amandang > 2013-08-23 14:59 | Report Abuse

cocoa price

Posted by cheeseburger > 2013-08-28 07:34 | Report Abuse

No good. Wait sideline

Posted by Saturn > 2013-08-28 07:46 | Report Abuse

Lol....

Posted by Sapphire > 2013-08-31 21:35 | Report Abuse

low profit margin...thats the risks....

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-09-08 11:12 | Report Abuse

another good analysis as well
http://klsecompany.blogspot.com/search/label/GCB

Posted by nightrader > 2013-09-13 22:30 | Report Abuse

http://t.today.com/money/chocolate-lovers-bitter-pill-prices-are-going-8C11142184

Posted by Nevets > 2013-09-14 15:09 | Report Abuse

A positive news for GCB

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/chocolate-prices-to-soar-for-the-coming-festive-season

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-09-15 12:58 | Report Abuse

thanks to Nevets and nightrader for the information.

Posted by hornetsjet > 2013-09-16 21:53 | Report Abuse

time to buy more...happy investing!

Posted by Nevets > 2013-09-25 15:40 | Report Abuse

Happy Investing guys~ I've breakeven my price ... accumulating since RM 1.49

TP 1.9

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-09-26 21:04 | Report Abuse

well done. Nevets. What do you think their 3Q result should be ?

Posted by Nevets > 2013-09-28 09:44 | Report Abuse

With the US currency increasing it might be good (where manufacturer will start accumulating for production), also I'm looking at Q4 to Q1,2014 as it's the moment for festive season when consumption will be high on Chocolates.

Posted by hanboon25 > 2013-10-02 14:02 | Report Abuse

know where to see the land of cocoa they have?

Posted by sotsot1986 > 2013-10-03 22:41 | Report Abuse

if no mistake, they dun own cocoa land. they bought cocoa bean from market and make it to cocoa butter. Expecting cocoa bean price will rise during this year end until Q1 2014, currently trade at USD2,600 per tonne.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2013-10-03 23:43 | Report Abuse

Dear Investors at Guan Chong,

kcchongnz was right with his statement, "So to me this is a lemon." "...its borrowing becomes bigger, bigger and bigger each year without fail."

From year 2005 to 2009 for 5 years Guan Chong was traded at 19 cts to 43 cts. Suddenly in 2010 Guan Chong announced a huge profit suddenly as if out of thin air. Hidden profit suddenly brought out in the open. Of course shareholders were happy. Prices shoot up from 19 cts to over RM2.00 Up TEN TIMES!!

Then we heard rumours that Guan Chong Insiders will goreng Wt when they come out for trading. The rumour turned out to be true from Local Johoreans who knew Guan Chong inner circle.

Anyway, that was then. Let me tell you why we have to be careful going forward:

1) We paid a site visit to Guan Chong Chocolate Outlets in JB Downtown. Its Shop is located about 10 minutes walk from Johore CIQ KASTAM near JB Causeway. The sales rep gave us sampling of the nice cocoa drink. Excellent taste. Then he showed us the products on display for sale.

To out surprise the prices were ridiculous. Over RM40 to RM50 for chocolate prices. Guan Chong has priced itself out of the Malaysian Markets. I asked the sales rep, "Who can afford to buy Guan Chong" chocolate products at these prices." He told me, "Singapore & Foreign countries."

I lived in Singapore. When I checked with NTUC FairPrice Supermarket, Sheng Siong, Giant & Cold Storage - I didn't find any Guan Chong made chocolate for sale. I think of TRANSMILE who still have 4 aeroplanes in Subang Airport - they said they have good business flying goods to China. So we didn't buy the story of TRANSMILE.

2) As kcchongnz pointed out. Guan Chong debt is ballooning but profit is so little. A RED FLAG!

3) GUAN CHONG price rose almost vertically when COCOA Bean Prices Rose. Reason: Guan Chong has a huge stock pile of cocoa beans that rose in value. But COCOA Bean Prices have Crashed by 40% from its peak! Is Guan Chong prices artificially supported? If so, do be careful that prices might retrace downward.

Sorry to post this since we also have benefited from Guan Chong price rise. At current status we cannot buy but can only sell.

Let us share with you another prospective "Guan Chong" in waiting. Sorry that prices have already moved somewhat. But it is still in its early days of boom.

The Stock is PM Corp(4081). Like Guan Chong, PM Corp is involved in CHOCOLATE PRODUCTS. PM Corp has High NTA, Cash Rich (Almost no borrowing), A Recession Proof Business & Best of All It is going to give a CASH Payout soon. Check it out!

Posted by sense maker > 2013-10-04 00:13 | Report Abuse

Guan Chong's borrowing has been alarming since before the super-fun rise in its share price. Its share price retreat has only been expected.

GCB reminds me of Olam.