Posted by Sc Hew > 2019-12-26 10:24 | Report Abuse

@Daniel Yong

the acquisition will be done in 2020 Q1, RM40mil profit from Schokinag will add into GCB profit. estimate EPS will be 0.28

now the share price is 3.15...3.15/0.28 Forward PE 11.25x

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-26 10:34 | Report Abuse

Sc chew....if based on 28sen eps, 13x PER will be 3.65. If PER, it will be 4.2.

I think 13x is fair. Thus 3.6 easily. And warrant shld be 1.95 with zero premium.

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-26 10:35 | Report Abuse

However, lets not get too excited and too optimistic. Along the way, expect road bumps....so be prepare for it....nothing comes free and cheap

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-26 12:41 | Report Abuse

If one expect mother to be 3.60 within few mths, one will buy into warrant which give better return in terms of percentage. 3.60-1.65=1.95 warrant price.

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-26 12:42 | Report Abuse

Thats why volume higher. Everyone diam diam collecting warrant

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-26 12:55 | Report Abuse

888next....mother and warrant all been collected

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-26 13:04 | Report Abuse

888next....thanks bro. Like i mentioned, have been in since 2016. And gone thru the ups and down and also thru balls shrinking moments....

Posted by enning22 > 2019-12-26 13:34 | Report Abuse

no need to be keep on reciting the same script. quarterly reports would do the work better.

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-26 13:49 | Report Abuse

Enning22....u are absolutely right! Shld keep my mouth shut and rejoice quietly.

My aplology if had offended you...

Posted by enning22 > 2019-12-26 14:08 | Report Abuse

@Agil , no lah, i just joking , sorry for being mischievous on my part, actually no harm done to me , please continue as you enjoy , and sharing good information with us all .thousand tks.

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-26 15:40 | Report Abuse

Enning22....u r right. No point keep reciting the same thing over and over again. Its kind of annoying, i so agree. Forgive me sometimes when i see impossible keep happening over and over kind of get excited and emotional.....hahah i guess better have better control of myself.....

Its more beneficial to share something new and unknown in this forum or else will be seen as self glorifying and self praising. Thanks for pointing that out...

I will try to contain my joy if it goes up again and not talking abt the past:)..... cheers!

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-26 15:41 | Report Abuse

88next....id i remember reading it from the boss, they do hedging and also pass on some to customers. If i remember correctly

Posted by Sc Hew > 2019-12-26 15:49 | Report Abuse

@Agjl Totally agree with you, lets monitor closely.

Posted by investortrader88 > 2019-12-27 07:55 | Report Abuse

♦ RHBIB

Dear Valued Client,
*Trading Stocks*
Date/日期 : 26/12/2019

1) *JCY (5161)*
Price/现价 : 0.265
Target price/目标价: 0.30/0.34
Cut loss/止损价 : 0.225
**Syariah
Sector/领域: TECHNOLOGY

2) *D&O (7204)*
Price/现价 : 0.84
Target price/目标价: 0.90/0.98
Cut loss/止损价 : 0.795
**Syariah
Sector/领域: TECHNOLOGY

3) *GCB (5102)*
Price/现价 : 3.10
Target price/目标价 : 3.30/3.50
Cut loss/止损价 : 2.87
**Syariah
Sector/领域 : CONSUMER PRODUCT

4) *PERDANA (7108)*
Price/现价 : 0.40
Target price/目标价: 0.45/0.50
Cut loss/止损价 : 0.355
**Syariah
Sector/领域: ENERGY

5) *GTRONIC (7022)*
Price/现价 : 2.30
Target price/目标价 : 2.40/2.50
Cut loss/止损价 : 2.20
**Syariah
Sector/领域: TECHNOLOGY

6) *SALUTE (0183)*
Price/现价 : 0.78
Target price/目标价: 0.88/0.98
Cut loss/止损价 : 0.70
**Syariah
Sector/领域: CONSUMER PRODUCT

Source : RHB RESEARCH INSTITUTE

_*Disclaimer*:This message is for information purposes only. Reproduction or dissemination to third party is prohibited. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor shall it be construed as an offer/solicitation or recommendation to buy/sell any stocks . Investors should make their own informed decisions by consulting your own independent adviser(s) before investing. We accept no responsibility or liability for loss or damage that may arise from the reliance of this message. For the full information regarding the stocks mentioned herein please refer to the relevant websites._

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-27 12:52 | Report Abuse

today no show

Posted by Sc Hew > 2019-12-27 17:32 | Report Abuse

Wait for Q4 result...haha

Posted by Larrytrader > 2019-12-27 17:43 | Report Abuse

Hi Mrs Hew I am from the same batch as you

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-27 19:02 | Report Abuse

Q4 ens of Jan?

Posted by investortrader88 > 2019-12-28 08:28 | Report Abuse

Earnings Announcement for Period Ending Y/2019:02/18/2020

Source : Bloomberg.

:)

Posted by Daniel Yong > 2019-12-28 14:19 | Report Abuse

Thanks, Ms Hew, for the forward P/E calculations.

Posted by Sc Hew > 2019-12-30 11:52 | Report Abuse

I hope to see GCB achieve EPS 0.24 and above for 2019 financial year.

Posted by longranger > 2019-12-30 12:18 | Report Abuse

@agjl, i want to know more about gcb, could you pls contact me at my email longranger1248@gmail.com?

Posted by Collin Soo > 2019-12-30 17:06 | Report Abuse

Can this counter continue rally at year 2020?

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-30 17:22 | Report Abuse

SC chew...ur earlier calculation on forward PER of the acquisition if i may offer my humble opinion there seems yo be a little mix up with the figure.

On your last paragraph of diving the number u stated 138/40. It shld be 800/40. Cos the 138 is in EUR and the 40 is in ringgit. Shld it be 800/40=20x per.

Corret me if i am wrong.

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-30 17:23 | Report Abuse

So the acquistion of sch is done at 20x per if impute profit of 40m based on 5% margin on 800m turnover

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-30 17:26 | Report Abuse

Collin soo...to answer your question, u can read last weekend Edge or Focus. There was an article on GCB. The title is “the growth story with strong fundamental”. So i would say its a growth story and expect earnings to grow inthe next few years. The rest is your guess as good as mine. Cheers

Posted by 888next > 2019-12-30 20:06 | Report Abuse

PE is based on price not sales turnover of 800 mil. The price bought was rm138 mil

Posted by 888next > 2019-12-30 20:12 | Report Abuse

But I doubt GCB could have bought it for such low PE. The 40 mil profits I think is over estmate

Posted by 888next > 2019-12-30 20:17 | Report Abuse

Assuming it's right and can contribute 40 mil Pat divided by 1008 mil. GCB shares it's eps contribution is rm0.04 and if market gives PE 15 times, it should improve share price by rm0.04 x 15 equals 60 sen

Posted by Sc Hew > 2019-12-31 09:18 | Report Abuse

@888next yes, I also thinking that why can buy such low price, need to keep monitor closely.

Do you know actually in 2014 Schokinag also belong to Cargill ...hehe....long story

Posted by Sc Hew > 2019-12-31 09:19 | Report Abuse

@Agjl I am not using the Annual revenue of Schokinag RM800mil...but the price of GCB buying Schokinag(RM137.84 million)= 138mil

Buy RM138mil estimate profile RM40mil(RM800mil*5%)= RM138mil/40mil ... which is PE3.45x

Sorry for confuse

Posted by 888next > 2019-12-31 09:32 | Report Abuse

Good morning Ms SC Hew. Nimbus private equity the seller of Schokinag won't sell it for a song.

I think we over estimate it's profits of rm40 mil based just on an assumption of 5% margin on sales of 800 mil.

More likely if the profit is halved to say rm20 mil then a price on Schokinag of 7 times PE is more acceptable to seller. But still an assumption

Posted by Sc Hew > 2019-12-31 09:40 | Report Abuse

@888next Good morning. Yes, I believe Tay is not fancy how much it makes, but it is positioned in the heart of Europe

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-31 10:48 | Report Abuse

Poaition first, then actions

Posted by 888next > 2019-12-31 11:32 | Report Abuse

Also the risk of Ivory Coast new grinding plant of 60k tons, more than half of the production can go to Schokinag

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-31 12:56 | Report Abuse

Wait for q results to move price a bit. Then come may price move a bit after completion of scho. Perfect dream..

Posted by Sc Hew > 2020-01-02 10:24 | Report Abuse

@888next Bingo!

Posted by kllady_fidah > 2020-01-02 12:19 | Report Abuse

tido ke gcb??2020 oredi mah

Posted by lee9fold > 2020-01-02 12:38 | Report Abuse

gcb uptrending with steady pace, this is what i like
mild correction is required to remove short term players

Posted by Agjl > 2020-01-02 15:24 | Report Abuse

Kilady....dia ni sudah kuat pecut for months....its tome to slow down and rest a bit...it deserves a rest...for longer meaningful journey...

Posted by kllady_fidah > 2020-01-02 17:00 | Report Abuse

mana boleh....2020 oredi

Posted by longranger > 2020-01-03 10:32 | Report Abuse

good time to top up

Posted by smokinweeds > 2020-01-03 10:49 | Report Abuse

Northern Sumatra flooding. GCB obtain a significant amount of their beans from ID and most ID cocoa plantations are in Northern Sumatra

Posted by kllady_fidah > 2020-01-03 10:55 | Report Abuse

reload

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-01-03 11:00 | Report Abuse

added 2.96

Posted by Agjl > 2020-01-03 11:18 | Report Abuse

Kilady....just 3rd day of 2020 aja. Anyway its dropping now let u have chance to top up. Dun say dun give chance:)

Posted by Agjl > 2020-01-03 11:20 | Report Abuse

Smokingweeds....someone just spreading news to have reasons for others to panic profit taking and unload. Crisis for some, opportunities for some as well. To me, i m not moved at all. Stay cool

Posted by Agjl > 2020-01-03 15:49 | Report Abuse

Dividends in today

Posted by slts > 2020-01-03 18:58 | Report Abuse

North Sumatra flesh flood not a major concern. just temporary
anywhere supply exceed demand due to over production

Indonesia's Cocoa Production and Export

The cocoa bean is one of the most important agricultural export products of Indonesia. In the past 25 years, the Indonesian cocoa sector has experienced massive growth, driven by rapid expansion of smallholder farmer participation. Indonesian smallholders contribute - by far - most of the national production, thus outperforming big state plantations and large private estates. The country currently has approximately 1.5 million hectares of cocoa plantations.

Indonesia's main locations of cocoa production are:

1. Sulawesi
2. North Sumatra
3. West Java
4. Papua
5. East Kalimantan

Cocoa Production in Indonesia

The main Indonesian cocoa producing region is the island of Sulawesi which accounts for around 75 percent of Indonesia's total cocoa production. As Indonesia’s cocoa productivity per hectare has been lagging behind that of other cocoa-producing countries, the government started a five-year cocoa revitalization program in 2009 to boost production through intensification, rehabilitation and rejuvenation activities, covering a total area of 450 thousand hectares. Factors that are hampering progress in the cocoa industry are aging trees (planted in the 1980s), insufficient improved planting materials and little farm maintenance. More investment in this sector is needed to reach the government's one million tonnes annual production target by 2013-2014.

In terms of export, cocoa forms Indonesia's fourth largest foreign exchange earning from the agriculture sector (after palm oil, rubber and coconut). However, the majority of Indonesia's cocoa export constitutes raw beans instead of processed cocoa, meaning that Indonesia loses out on added value revenues. The most important destination countries for Indonesia's cocoa beans are Malaysia, the USA and Singapore.

Posted by Daniel Yong > 2020-01-04 00:47 | Report Abuse

Interesting read. Thanks, Slts