NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose about 2% on Thursday, extending their new year's rally, on escalating unrest in OPEC+ oil producer Kazakhstan and supply outages in Libya. Brent crude futures rose $1.19 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $81.99 a barrel, after hitting their highest since late November. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.61, or 2.1%, to $79.46. The contract touched a session high of $80.24.
Russia sent paratroopers into Kazakhstan to help quell a countrywide uprising after deadly violence spread across the tightly controlled former Soviet state. There were no indications that oil production in Kazakhstan has been affected so far. The country produces about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. Meanwhile in Libya, oil output was at 729,000 barrels per day, the National Oil Corp said, down from a high of more than 1.3 million bpd last year, owing to maintenance and oilfield shutdowns. Global benchmark Brent's six-month backwardation stood at about $4 a barrel, its widest since late November. Backwardation is a market structure where current prices trade at a premium to future prices and is usually a sign of a bullish market. Prices have rallied since the start of the year despite OPEC+ sticking to an agreed output target rise and a surge in U.S. fuel stockpiles. "OPEC production, while it did increase, disappointed the market - it is not going to be enough to keep up with demand," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. OPEC+, a group that includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, agreed on Tuesday to add another 400,000 bpd of supply in February, as it has done each month since August as it gradually relaxes 2020's cuts as demand recovers from the pandemic. However, the increase in OPEC's output in December has again undershot the rise planned under the OPEC+ deal, a Reuters survey found on Thursday, highlighting capacity constraints. JP Morgan forecast Brent to average at $88 a barrel in 2022, up from $70 last year. "Our reference case now assumes the alliance will fully phase out the remaining 2.96 million bpd of oil production cuts by September 2022," the bank's analysts said in a note. Government data on Wednesday showed that U.S. gasoline inventories surged by more than 10 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly build since April 2020, as supplies backed up at refineries because of reduced fuel demand. Crude inventories in the United States, the world's top consumer, have fallen for six consecutive weeks by the end of the year to 417.9 million barrels, their lowest since September, the data showed. U.S. crude futures suggest supplies will remain tight early in the new year. A barrel of oil for delivery in June is selling at a $4.10 premium to a barrel for delivery in December, the highest since Nov. 2, a signal of near-term rising demand. Meanwhile, the world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, cut the official selling price for all grades of crude it sells to Asia in February by at least $1 a barrel, three sources with knowledge of the matter said.
LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices that rallied 50% in 2021 will power further ahead this year, some analysts predict, saying a lack of production capacity and limited investment in the sector could lift crude to $90 or even above $100 a barrel. Though the Omicron coronavirus variant has pushed COVID-19 cases far above peaks hit last year, analysts say oil prices will be supported by the reluctance of many governments to restore the strict restrictions that hammered the global economy when the pandemic took hold in 2020. Brent crude futures traded near $85 on Wednesday, hitting two-month highs. "Assuming China doesn't suffer a sharp slowdown, that Omicron actually becomes Omi-gone, and with OPEC+’s ability to raise production clearly limited, I see no reason why Brent crude cannot move towards $100 in Q1, possibly sooner," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, are gradually relaxing the output cuts implemented when demand collapsed in 2020. However, many smaller producers can't raise supply and others have been wary of pumping too much oil in case of renewed COVID-19 setbacks.
Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude will hit $90 a barrel in the third quarter of this year. With the prospect of depleting crude inventories and low spare capacity by the second half of 2022, and limited investments in the oil and gas sector, the market will have little margin of safety, the bank said. JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Wednesday that they could see oil prices rising by up to $30 after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Bloomberg lowered OPEC capacity estimates for 2022 by 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd) and 1.2 million bpd respectively.
However, the bank added that it also expects oil prices to "overshoot" to $125 a barrel this year, and $150 in 2023. Rystad Energy's senior vice-president of analysis Claudio Galimberti said if OPEC was disciplined and wanted to keep the market tight, it could boost prices to $100. However, he said he did not consider this a likely scenario and while oil could "momentarily" reach above $90 this year, downward pressure on prices would come from production increases in Canada, Norway, Brazil and Guyana. Omani Oil Minister Mohammed Al Rumhi also said on Tuesday that the group doesn't want to see $100 barrels of oil. "The world is not ready for that," Al Rumhi was quoted as saying by Bloomberg. High oil prices, which also drive up gasoline and diesel prices, could keep inflation uncomfortably high well into 2022 amid snarled global supply chains, slowing the economic recovery from the pandemic in many countries. Standard Chartered, meanwhile, has raised its 2022 Brent forecast by $8 to $75 a barrel and its 2023 Brent forecast by $17 to $77. In a Reuters poll in late December, 35 economists and analysts forecast Brent would average $73.57 a barrel in 2022, about 2% lower than $75.33 consensus in November. The forecast shows the average price for the year, not the peak. Brent prices have not touched $90 and $100 since 2014, when they were retreating from a high above $115 to as low as $57 by the end of the year.
Brent Oil future market price remains up and up but Penergy price down and down. I suspect some manipulators pressing down the price to accumulate slowly and quietly. Right ?
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DCang Akino
1,244 posts
Posted by DCang Akino > 2021-11-21 12:22 | Report Abuse
Me too below 0.80.