Posted by BursaInsight > 2020-08-12 12:55 | Report Abuse

good time to collect, added more today!

Posted by kt888 88 > 2020-08-12 13:10 | Report Abuse

Hi, may I know what is Pdts?

Posted by Live2Win > 2020-08-12 13:11 | Report Abuse

the market had been on consolidation mode for the past 3 days...i believe the downside is pretty limited. perhaps if one intends to buy, one must hv holding power till this coming week when the market starts to stabilize.

Posted by Live2Win > 2020-08-12 13:17 | Report Abuse

I hv the feeling their upcoming quarter is going to be beautiful taking into account of the great amount of chemicals that this company has been supplying to those big glove making brothers.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-12 13:51 | Report Abuse

good news is I can see the demand for this stock. Each time it drops and some people throw away their shares cheap, there are buyers pouncing on it and they are NOT on buy queues. That is amazing. A good sign that someone knows that this stock can limit up again soon when the consolidation mode is over. Very soon...smart move by the company to delay the good news of their Q2. once the consolidation is over, they will announce it. Just hold and wait for your wealth to double if not triple.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-12 15:50 | Report Abuse

I just received news of a temporary blip due to US sentiments, just a minor turbulence for now. Ride it on and you will see rainbows soon.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/klci-slumps-092-line-negative-regional-markets-volume-swells-over-13-billion-securities

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-12 17:05 | Report Abuse

I can see the resilience in the stock. Consolidation paving the way for an upward trend very soon. Covid is still on guys don't be fooled by the Russians and vaccine freakos... latest news Australia records the worst deaths today. Covid will stay on until end of the year as no vaccine will be effective until year end the fastest. Let's not kid anyone here, if a vaccine is so easy to be found, then there are no more diseases in this world.

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-13 09:41 | Report Abuse

Pdts hard at work. Actually not much sellers anymore. Hold on tight for QR

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 09:48 | Report Abuse

luke what is a pdts? haha been very intrigued by this abbreviation ...

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-13 10:05 | Report Abuse

Proprietary day trader, allowed to short sell.

Qs are double digit now. Illiquidity is the key for next cycle uptrend

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-13 10:07 | Report Abuse

This counter only 25% is held by below 500,000 units

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 12:02 | Report Abuse

yes agreed, sellers are getting lesser, more strong holders now... I am sure it will go back up to its fair value soon once QR results out. Smart move on the company to only announce the good news when market has finish consolidating.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 12:16 | Report Abuse

Another point I want to mention is unlike other companies like Luxchem where the directors are selling which demonstrates the lack of faith in their company, Samchem is so tightly held by the owner and directors. This shows the real true value of this gem.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 13:31 | Report Abuse

For the benefit of members who wish to invest long term in this stock for capital appreciation and increasing dividends, Samchem's Return of Capital employed (ROCE) which measures the ‘return’ (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBITDA) ÷ (Total Assets – Current Liabilities)

0.25 = RM46m ÷ (RM510m – RM322m) (Based on the trailing 12 months to March 2020).

So, Samchem Holdings Berhad has an ROCE of 25%. In absolute terms that’s a great return and it’s even better than the Trade Distributors industry average of 8.8%. Investors would be pleased with Samchem because the numbers show that in the last 5 years way before COVID, the returns generated on capital employed have grown considerably to 25%. Basically Samchem's business is earning more per dollar of capital invested and in addition to that, 51% more capital is being employed now too. The increasing returns on a growing amount of capital is common amongst multi-baggers and that is why this stock has an upward trend advantage towards its fair value of at least 2.0.

Key advantages:

1. Trading at 92.1% below analyst estimate of its fair value based on its rivals PE ratio. Luxchem and CCM are trading at far higher PE ratios when their earnings growth is not as much and their business model is more exposed and less diversified as Samchem.

2. Earnings are forecast to grow 12.02% per year as growth already started since the last 4 quarters way before COVID started.

3. Earnings grew by 23% over the past year and is forecasted to grow even more due to the supply to the healthcare industry (with or without vaccine). Samchem also employs a diversified business model which has a range of industrial chemicals distributions such as lubricants. Its current Vietnamese business unit is spinning off for listing in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 13:31 | Report Abuse

Source: SAMCHEM last annual report

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 13:33 | Report Abuse

By the way, a multi-bagger stock means an equity stock which gives a return of more than 100%. The term was coined by Peter Lynch in his 1988 book, One Up on Wall Street and comes from baseball where "bags" or "bases" that a runner reaches are the measure of the success of a play.

Posted by Michael Dreamun > 2020-08-13 17:45 | Report Abuse

Thought of cutting loss,any suggestions and ideas, Sifu?

Posted by tzerteoh > 2020-08-13 17:54 | Report Abuse

non stop dropping...damn

Posted by Michael Dreamun > 2020-08-13 18:10 | Report Abuse

Hopeless already?

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 18:11 | Report Abuse

patience... no point cutting at this stage. There is more upside than downside.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 18:14 | Report Abuse

I would say a fair value is around 1.20-1.30 range in the short term which translates to around 27-28% yield. To reach that is not too far, just one limit up. but if you cut at this stage, you realise a loss immediately. In this kind of market, where are you going to put your money to get an almost certain 27-28% yield? FD is not going to give you that. Remember that the highest this stock reached was 1.48. Since Q2 is coming out, I would suggest hold, if not buying more.

Posted by Michael Dreamun > 2020-08-13 18:31 | Report Abuse

My average price very high 1.20,still diving,how to be patient? By the way when is the qtr report? Thanks for the advice.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 18:42 | Report Abuse

unless you need the money, no point selling unless you have a stock that can give you back that value. Now market is consolidating. Q2 any time soon. not sure but coming out and very likely to be good. So there is still catalyst for upward trend. As Luke mentioned, this stock is very closely held so when it goes up, it easily limits up.

Posted by Live2Win > 2020-08-13 18:59 | Report Abuse

michael Dreamun...u probably having sleepless nite after holding this share at an average high price of 1.20....this is indeed quite unfortunate to be caught off guard during this consolidation period. The best possible way is to average some more to enable your holdings to be much lower and at the same time, monitor closely n when the price moves up, dispose some along the way. In other word, treat as trading stock inorder to retrieve back your money. u can always buy back at a lower price when it moves down.

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-13 19:21 | Report Abuse

1.20 is alright. Even IB rate it 1.20 based on historical results. I estimate results to be not less than 10 mil for Q2 and likely to be more.

But I noticed the syndicate keep pushing it down perhaps for accumulation, results might be delayed because of this. We are near a temporary bottom

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-13 19:24 | Report Abuse

After all, who will sell at 78 to 80+ range when the shares reached 1.48. Note that it was a small volume, 1 million

Posted by Live2Win > 2020-08-13 19:33 | Report Abuse

Based on the chart now...there is a possibility that it may move down abit more b4 it eventually moves up gradually. Thus,then it shud be the best time to collect some to average your holdings while waiting for upcoming quarter which is believed to be good.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 19:35 | Report Abuse

I agree with Luke's assessment, someone is pushing it down to accumulate. It will bounce back soon. if you have spare cash, can buy when it drops.

Posted by Live2Win > 2020-08-13 19:40 | Report Abuse

Worse to worse, i anticipate another minor drop of 5 - 8 cts from today's closing if correction period prolongs over the next few days...nothing serious though

Posted by Live2Win > 2020-08-13 19:49 | Report Abuse

Today's Bursa overall volume has dropped dramatically as compared to the last few days...that means to say a number of retail players had stopped participating...either they are burnt or they are waiting for the right time to enter....

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 20:21 | Report Abuse

Live2win@ I don't think it will drop to 80 something cents range because the last time it drops to 70 something cents range, immediately the buying happens like a shark and hit the thing back up to 90 something cents again. As Luke it is a tightly held stock, just a little bit high volume of buying will push the price up by a lot. Which is why on a technical call, I say HOLD and collect because all it takes is one wave of buying this will pancut to 1.20 back again at least.

I think your second analysis is more correct. Retail got burnt on last few days and now adopt a wait and see approach. They have interest still if the price is right. and for samchem 90 something cents proved to the ceiling low and ideal market entry price - why? Because it has stabilisied at this range so we know this is the ceiling low limit for Samchem. Which is not bad la...one or two more wave all the holders will be rewarded. So, HOLD and wait for the profit to come in. When? I don't know but I know it will happen soon...

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 20:28 | Report Abuse

Technical call:

BUY if you have money spare cash;

HOLD if no money to spare but no urgent need to use money;

SELL if you desperately need to use cash or if you can spot a stock that can surely give you a 60% gain in a few days. I think it is unlikely in today's market environment because if there is, samchem would have shot up.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 20:30 | Report Abuse

Luke@ it seems you are firm believer as well. I notice you on this forum when samchem was previously trading at 90 something cents range weeks ago. You have a high target price ya? Even at 1.20/1.48 you did not sell. Just like me, I did not think of selling when it hit 1.48 because my personal target price is at least 1.70 -2.00 range.

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-13 21:06 | Report Abuse

PE is still low. Historically pè 10 while Luxchem is pe 20. I expected a run up to the results that's the reason I held.

Rational for 10 million profits minimum
Forex losses clawback from Q1 6 million
Q1 similarly profits 4 million

Total 10 million

If not for the forex loss Q1 would have a 10 million profit


So, on an optimistic side Q2 could be 16 million profits.
If that's the new normal, the eps could ranged from 14 to 20 cents per annum. Based that on pe 20 that's explosive

Posted by Live2Win > 2020-08-13 21:33 | Report Abuse

thetruthoracle@....I enjoyed reading your posts as always n somehow or another, I do find what had been mentioned by u to be pretty reasonable/practical. That is the reason why lately i am here to lend my support to u with the hope of winning some profit out of this stock together. I am one of the true believers of this stock n its potential to move up higher in time to come. Like what u hv mentioned previously abt the resilience of its price range (arnd 92-96cts) for the past few days, I totally agreed with u that there has been accumulation of the shares by certain parties at this level with the aim of flushing out all the contra players b4 they actually decide to make the company quarterly announcement soon.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-13 22:24 | Report Abuse

thanks Luke@ and Live2Win@ for sharing your views and factual information. I discovered samchem through the reading of the RHB analyst and sifu peng lam. Studied the stock for a few days before I entered. I agree with you that all the analyst and sifu pointed out that the PE ratio is very low and so this stock is very much undervalued considering its profits. My target price is still 2.0 unchanged.

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-13 23:15 | Report Abuse

Follow the flow, if it drop just buy more. Play their game. Dividends is 4 cents per year. Better than FD

Posted by Live2Win > 2020-08-14 08:34 | Report Abuse

Yes Luke@...absolutely true n agreed with your view...Dividend of 4cts per year is pretty much okay as compared to FD nowadays. Even GasMsia whose share is over RM2+; is only offering slightly abv 4cts in this year current divident payout...what more to say samchem currently below RM1

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-14 10:02 | Report Abuse

Pdts trying for 91.5, road blocks set up

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-14 11:13 | Report Abuse

The sell Q is fake. Only 2 or 3 persons each row. Probably same person

Posted by PM Sim > 2020-08-14 11:23 | Report Abuse

normal for good stocks to move down prior to QR release..good result possible limit up.just go Jalan2 n cari makan.

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-14 11:42 | Report Abuse

Hold on tight. Don't let the pdts scare you off. Good results are rare these days

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-14 12:26 | Report Abuse

My analysis on the the stock price, samchem should rise soon. Possible QR results released by end of today. Probably some insiders buying in cheap... not sure but sounds and looks very fishy. Something is coming up. And usually before a tsunami, there is always some harmless event happening.

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-14 13:35 | Report Abuse

just checked the news, our GDP results just got released that is why the slight fall in price today. our economy contracted by 17.1%

The Malaysian economy contracted by 17.1% in the second quarter of 2020 (1Q20: 0.7%), reflecting the unprecedented impact of the stringent containment measures to control the Covid-19 pandemic globally and domestically.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/klci-tracks-regional-markets-fall-082-gdp-contraction-dampens-local-sentiment-glovemakers

NOT TO WORRY, samchem's Q2 results will be good and that will lift the price up because of the contrast with the wider economy. Samchem is expected to do very well in the covid crisis. The longer the crisis the better for samchem

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-14 13:37 | Report Abuse

so many companies release their Q2 all bad - but not Samchem - so you will see the massive lift soon.

Posted by Alvin Chan > 2020-08-14 13:48 | Report Abuse

samchem suppose to release the qr early of this week? will the qr is good since few days delay?

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2020-08-14 14:13 | Report Abuse

Been told its mid August..so could be today until the 19th........

Posted by kglim > 2020-08-14 14:27 | Report Abuse

Glove stock and healthcare stock banned from contra as per some investment bank. Will it benefit samchem ? Chemicals stock ? Let’s see....

Posted by thetruthoracle > 2020-08-14 14:31 | Report Abuse

no worries guys, like I said, the company has never done stunts unlike other companies. It has always been consistent nothing to worry.

Posted by bubufu > 2020-08-14 15:04 | Report Abuse

T T keep dropping. (this week highest 1.21 to now 0.89) really feels like go holland already. haha.