Discount Cash Flow Model 1 Valuation on HOMERIZ 8/4/2014
Table 6.1: Assumptions Current stock price $0.81 Share outstanding (Mil) 200,000 This year FCF (avg last 2 years) $18,295 Next year's FCF (mil) $19,210 Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0% 3% Teminal growth rate, g 1.00% Discount rate, R 10.0%
Table 6.2: DCFA PV of FCFF of core operations $257,000 Non-operating cash $34,710 Investment in Properties Nil Investment in Associates Nil Debts ($2,671) PV of FCFE $289,039 Less minority interest ($462) 0.16% FCFE $288,577 Number of shares 200000 FCF per share $1.44 MOS 44%
Intrinsic Value of Homeritz is RM1.44. Potential gain of 78%!
hahhaa..i bought this counter at 0.40 sep last year with 100% paper gain now and i'm still holding..., it is still undervalue based on DFCA, that is why i'm still holding this counter.
Financial performance review: As of 3rd quarterly result 2014, HOMERIZ has achieved 98% (17.6 million) of FYE13 net profits (17.9 million) on the back of 83.% (93.9 million) of FYE13 revenue (112.9 million).
From this, HOMERIZ is most likely able to overtake the revenue of FYE13 as they just have to meet another 19 million to break even with the revenue of FYE13. The extra is an additional bonus for the shareholders.
To me, HOMERIZ might be lack of the growth drivers to stimulate its revenue and its revenue would be highly correlated with the the fluctuation of US Dollar.
Let's see how the management copes with the facing risks, so as to spur growth.
my estimation and anal-ysis: renevue for this coming quarter will be 1.5x of last quarter. profit margin maybe lower but clean profit should be 30% more than last quarter. expect 3~3.5 sen of divvy
btw, hmm, homeritz still owe their shareholders around 3 sen of divvy, 1 sen will be distributed later this month. the next divvy will be 2 sen + 40% of their EPS. you calculate how much will it be... hmmm
DuPont Analysis on HOMERITZ Does HOMERIZ’s business has economic moat? The return of equity of HOMERIZ is a good number of 18.57.%, higher than the minimum requirement of 15% for most ardent fundamental investors. A DuPont analysis of HOMERIZ is carried out to dissect its ROE.
ROE = NI/E = NI/S * S/TA * TA/E Where NI is net income, E is equity, S is sales/revenue, TA is total assets NI/S is the net profit, S/TA is the asset turnover, TA/E is financial leverage
Net Income Margin = Net Income/ Revenue =15118/112905= 13.39% Asset Turnover = Revenue/ Total Asset =112905/103,799=1.09 Financial Leverage = Total Asset/ Total Equity =103799/81403=1.28
The main driver of Homeriz’s high ROE is hence the high net profit of 13.99% most desirable way to achieve a higher ROE. The asset turnover of 1.09 (<1.5) and the financial leverage of 1.28 (<1.5) are relatively low. Hence there is plenty of room for Homeriz to improve its ROE such as improving its marketing and scouting for more business, or increases its leverage and hence its ROE
Homeriz’s ROE for the past 3 years average at 18% . Also note that this was achieved with very little debt. Homeriz is definitely a gems to look into.
Yes tkg8, if you look at their financial statement for last 2 years, they has been doing really well. Also if you look at discounted cash flow analysis that I have done previously, Homeriz is still very much undervalue. It is definately an investment grade stock. Suitable for me as a value investor.
Hi coolio, agreed. Based on what i understand, high ROE could be achieved by getting loan from financial activities, but for Homeriz, the high ROE comes with low debts. That was the reason to attract me to put some of my fund into this counter! Hope we could have sweet and handsome perk in near future...cheer!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
gray
1,158 posts
Posted by gray > 2014-07-30 22:21 | Report Abuse
yooo hooo .... ; )