Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 17:35 | Report Abuse

When the high end product price is the same as low end product price which one will you buy? I think your answer will be low end product because you are vested in Jcy. while the rest of the market will go for the high end product.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 17:59 | Report Abuse

Let us wait n see!!! When HDD will OBSOLETE!!!

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 19:06 | Report Abuse

Ray, please read in detail the attachment that you attach EARLY , Flash will only predict reaching 50% note book market n 35% server market BY 2018'

http://www.itworld.com/article/2851019/intel-plans-3d-nand-flash-next-year-for-as-much-storage-as-you-want.html

How about the balance market??? HDD or ELSE??////

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 19:15 | Report Abuse

Is this mean HDD still survive till 2018 even longer period ????

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 19:25 | Report Abuse

What i concern is SSD WILL NOT REPLACE HDD 100% WITHIN 2 TO 3 YEARS. Future i don't know!! AS i mention earlier. Repeat again i think JCY will perform well this 2 year due to currency n HDD demand.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 19:38 | Report Abuse

It means whatever you want it to mean. You seem very nervous for someone who thinks hdd is not at risk. Instead of wasting time going around in circles here why don't you use your time more wisely and do some research so I don't have to spoon feed you everything like a baby. The market will decide over the next few weeks/months through the share price whether the coming 3D nand will kill hdd so you don't need to keep trying to convince yourself and me that there is no risk to hdd. I hope you have not vested too heavily.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 20:13 | Report Abuse

Ray, this is first time i joint the forum. I make the comment because of you!!!!
Due to last Friday you come out statement that SSD will kill HDD within 6 months. I TAK BOLEH TAHAN!!! Actualy i been joint i3 4 year ago n not even make a comment since then.

Lastly thanks for your concern, i only invest 3% of my portfolio!!!

Actually i been study the HDD demand n RM trend b'4 i invest JCY since JAN 15'. up to now not much loss. Lastly, Thanks again ALL the fact data you provide.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 20:22 | Report Abuse

Ray . may i ask you Why you so hate JCY ???? Even HOPE price go down to 0.30. May i know???

Posted by bankertan > 2015-03-22 20:30 | Report Abuse

Ray thanks for your valuable information. I too have vested heavily in Jcy and have been following your posts very closely and I must admit I have been overly concentrated on researching Jcy and hdd industry/competitors that I overlooked the developments in ssd. it is very hard to have an unbiased view when you are vested but I agree with you that 3D nand poses a serious risk to hdd. The question then becomes this, as an investor in Jcy do I see its future earnings to be poor, reasonable, good, excellent or outstanding excluding the currency gains. The next question then becomes are these earnings level enough to sustain the share price from any major impacts from the coming 3D band threat to hdd. For me the company has not been producing enough real sales profit to cushion the share price against a major shock to the hdd industry from 3D nand. for that reason better for me to protect my capital. Hopefully it doesn't drop too much tommorrow so I can exit.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 20:31 | Report Abuse

Ray. you know that the statement you make will kill how many investor hope or not??? i advise please don't make such strong statement again next time.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 20:47 | Report Abuse

I do note hate Jcy. Iam only pointing out the facts about ssd and hdd.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 20:51 | Report Abuse

Buy or sell is everyone's own decision because its your money not mine.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 21:03 | Report Abuse

How Intel and Micron May Finally Kill the Hard Disk Drive

For too long, it looked like SSD capacity would always lag well behind hard disk drives, which were pushing into the 6TB and 8TB territory while SSDs were primarily 256GB to 512GB. That seems to be ending. In September, Samsung announced a 3.2TB SSD drive. And during an investor webcast last week, Intel announced it will begin offering 3D NAND drives in the second half of next year as part of its joint flash venture with Micron. Meanwhile, hard drive technology has hit the wall in many ways. They can't really spin the drives faster than 7,200 RPM without increasing heat and the rate of failure. All hard drives have now is the capacity argument; speed is all gone. Oh, and price. We'll have to wait and see on that.

http://m.slashdot.org/story/210299

Posted by sense maker > 2015-03-23 00:15 | Report Abuse

Competition between SSD and HHD has been around for years and both sides are serving different niches. The change in market share between HDD and SSD has always been evolutionary, not revolutionary, in reality.

Proponents of SSD of course would argue for a dramatic increase in use of SSD as this will lower its costs per GB but HDD continues to improve too.

IT geeks tend exaggerate technical ideals and play down the importance of what price difference means in real world.

The demand for digital storage will grow 40% annually with the burgeoning world population. So, it is extreme and very misleading to argue for HDD's demise in 3 months' time. Big-sounding new products came out before with much fanfare but they often have very long adaptation process to hit the market in any meaningful way. HDD in fact will continue to be the main choice due to price per GB.

One report states that HDD demand would be stable through 2018 to 2019. The latest quarterly commentary by JCY states that the current trend of stable demand is expected to continue.

How would JCY position itself beyond that would be interesting. Will JCY just slowly wind down after 2019 with all the long-standing rapport and business relationship between its owner and WD and Seagate. I do not think so and this can clarified with the directors in AGM next Wednesday.

With NTA of 57sen and free cash flow of at least 13sen a year, 70sen a share is entirely justifiable as your capital will be 100% recovered even if JCY closes shop a year from now in the unreal hypothetical scenario for discussion purposes, given the weakening Ringgit and strong US economy. I do not see Ringgit to be able to stage any recovery till 2016. The uncertainty over HDD has been heavily priced in by the market.

The run up from 50sen to 77sen is due to the vast improvement in JCY's quarterly profit as HDD mechanical part market players become fewer due to consolidation. When more competitors close shop due to high cost structure, JCY's profit margin should increase further.

So, to argue for JCY being worth less than 30sen is outlandish in economic sense.

30sen a share is a bonanza scaremongers hope to reap by writing away one-sidedly and purely from technical perspective.

Posted by Ah Gan > 2015-03-23 00:41 | Report Abuse

er.... now still got people use CD? oe DVD?
Long time i dint buy both, so i dont know the answer~

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-23 03:23 | Report Abuse

This is totally ignorant. Why? Just take blue ray as example. Did blue ray kill DVD? Nope! Why? Due to cost issues. Yes! Blue ray clearer. But DVD good enough. Ppl reluctant to change anymore since existing serve well. So will be case of HDD lah. Next techno so what! HDD serve good enough. Most corp won't change simply you said it is more blah blah. Cost efficient more important

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-23 05:06 | Report Abuse

Simple questions " 1. HDD qty. per year = 500 ++ mil. will become 0 within 6 month???????

2. Will WD & SEAGATE the giants player let this happen????

ASK YOUR SELF, BEFORE INVEST JCY.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-23 05:17 | Report Abuse

3. Will your change your present device / product which with HDD to SSD within 6 months????

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-23 06:07 | Report Abuse

Answer:

1. The hdd quantity will not drop to 0 straight away but there will be a major drop where the hdd makers will no longer make money. This type of business need scale and volume to make money and when quantity drop too much they be in trouble.

2. WD and Seagate are laggards in ssd and they have no control the change that is about to happen. Unless they buy out Intel, Samsung, micron Sandisk etc and stop the 3D band technology so they can keep selling hdd. But this is not the case as they cannot buy out all these big ssd company so they go after the smaller ssd makers which they have been buying. They also want a piece of the ssd pie. Both WD snd Seagate is divisified into ssd. Jcy is not divisified into ssd and it is therefore exposed in a major way because it only makes hdd component.

3. When 3D nand is out and ssd price is the same as hdd, of course consumers will switch over from hdd to ssd. You know why? Because simply by converting their hdd to ssd in their laptop, their whole system performance improved straight away. Small money to pay for s major performance improvement where my of or laptop will boot up the operating system 2 times faster and my applications will load up and process says 2 times faster. Most the data centre have already started project to migrate all their hdd to ssd. Why? Because they know 3D nand is coming and the price will match hdd.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-23 06:12 | Report Abuse

Every company must embrace technological change and adapt to change otherwise they will be out of business very fast. In jcy case it abit too late because they are trap in hdd.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-23 06:21 | Report Abuse

The problem I see here is that many vested do not know about ssd or know enough about it. If they did they will not have invested in jcy in the first place. In life we all make mistake and when we realize our mistake we must admit it to ourselves so we can do something about it so we can move on. Otherwise forever living in that mistake with regret.

Posted by virgogo > 2015-03-23 11:01 | Report Abuse

Why suddenly people are so negative about this company. Whether is comment of a competitor or having a ulterior motive. Look at the furniture and electronics industry that have all the ups and downs. Now everybody love them and the stocks prices have substantially gone up. Same goes for glove industry that will face excess capacity.but yet not many people talk bad about them. Generally all are benefitting from low ringgit including jcy

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-23 11:11 | Report Abuse

the market already knows it benefit from ringgit. Without favorable ringgit it will be in trouble by now when you look at real sales profit minus currency gain. The market is worried about the serious threat to hdd from the 3D nand break through technology. Are any of the other furniture company or glove company facing a threat in next few months which could kill the demand for their products? No.

Posted by virgogo > 2015-03-23 11:14 | Report Abuse

Company has recently bought a new factory for its operation in Johor that is near its existing factory. Also said that will spend 500 million for caped next 10 years. These are indications management is still positive of its business prospect. With good fundamentals, net cash and fairly good dividend why should we be so negatvie?

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-23 11:33 | Report Abuse

Yaya, new technology. End of the world!run

Posted by sense maker > 2015-03-23 12:07 | Report Abuse

The market does not seem to agree with Raymond on a 30 sen share price target. This counter is owned and played by funds who know what they have bought into. Scaremongers have scared some shareholders into selling the past few days but the selling pressure is well absorbed and selling is tapering.

I think some funds are trying to play within the band of 50sen to 70sen but other funds may not agree, seeing value in JCY's free cash flow in coming years. Anyway, those who will attend the AGM, please record or summarize for us directors replies to SSD' threat.

Those who feel uncomfortable should cash out as this counter is very liquid. Those who hold on know their capital is well protected and all free cash flow beyond 2015 or mid-2016 is profit on break-up basis.

Good luck.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-23 12:31 | Report Abuse

My buy order at 0.690 was matched. Another 10k shares are still in buy q at 0.685.

Action is louder than words.

Shares investment is luck dependant along with calculated risk.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-23 12:38 | Report Abuse

bsngpg : i agree with you. Today i also add some qty.

Posted by ConMan > 2015-03-23 12:44 | Report Abuse

Please said more bad about this counter. Thanks Raymond tang, So that u and us can collect more shares. RT, Please comment why MPI and Unisem were traded at high PE ?

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-23 13:27 | Report Abuse

I "guess" there will be a good news on AGM on Wednesday.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-23 13:42 | Report Abuse

Please up date the ' INFO' after the AGM. TQVM.

Posted by virgogo > 2015-03-23 13:49 | Report Abuse

Have u notice the market capitalization of MPI and Unisem. Each is valued at between 1.4 to 1.5 billion. JCY is also valued at abt 1.4 billion. In terms of annual total turnover and profit both these companies are no where near to JCY performance. So Are investors overvaluing MPI and Unisem and undervaluing JCY?. Again the industries all these companies are in faces equivalent headwinds and challenges.. So why punish JCY ?

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-23 14:44 | Report Abuse

I add many already....

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-23 14:53 | Report Abuse

If you ask me, semiconductor nothing special nowadays. So mpi , unisem overvalued. Jcy. Even director buying 0.74. You think they idiots? You think you know better than them?

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-23 14:53 | Report Abuse

Read sinchew today! Something mentioned interest in there!

Posted by ConMan > 2015-03-23 15:30 | Report Abuse

Thanks Virgogo and Paperlane by telling the truth.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-23 15:57 | Report Abuse

the truth? the truth is a bunch of vested individuals trying to con others to buy in on a counter with a coming breakthrough technology thats going to kill its products. For the THIRD time, the directors did not buy in at .74 recently. They bought 1 million shares using ESOS at .61 and only 500k shares at .74. So the majority of the shares bought were using ESOS at .61. but you can keep chanting directors bought at .74 to keep conning others to buy in. All truth and facts are lost in a sea of greed.

Posted by ConMan > 2015-03-23 16:14 | Report Abuse

Raymond, you are welcome to the AGM on this Wednesday to give your opinion to us as all the shareholders are ignorance.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-23 17:32 | Report Abuse

http://biz.sinchew.com.my/taxonomy/term/8

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-23 17:33 | Report Abuse

before real good news come, it always have some one create new acc and comment negative.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-23 18:26 | Report Abuse

Good news?
I speculate bonus issue to reward shareholders after 5-6 yrs from IPO.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-23 20:54 | Report Abuse

He he. This Raymond shall keep quiet if jcy really venture into tablets

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-23 21:57 | Report Abuse

Ray is a good guy spending lot of time searching and sharing info about SSD. Although I cannot agree fully with him and his long slew of unfavorable comments on HDD had costed me few hundreds ringgit in a day, I still appreciate his efforts. Thks, Mr. Ray.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-23 22:00 | Report Abuse

Wow bonus issue and Jcy venturing into tablet, mobiles, watches, Barbie dolls, everything. Pity Jcy investors have to resort to this low level trickery to promote the company. Desperate and nervous indeed. When 3D nand comes in a few months it will be game over. Intel, micron, toshiba and Samsung all launching 3D nand in a few months. I will be watching in amusement.


Samsung wants to kill hard drives with new high-efficiency SSDs

For the first time, Samsung has started producing SSDs using (wait for it) 3-bit multi-level-cell, 3D Vertical NAND flash memory, better known as TLC V-NAND. So, who in the actual hell cares? You might, if you're planning on buying an SSD or computer soon. Samsung's current V-NAND technology has resulted in models like the 850 Pro SSD, which topped all benchmarks and has a 10-year guarantee. But combining V-NAND with 3-bit tech has more than doubled wafer yields, which should result in even cheaper, faster and higher-capacity SSDs. The disks aren't on sale yet, but there's a good chance that one of the first available will be Samsung's recently leaked 850 EVO.

http://www.engadget.com/2014/10/09/samsung-tlc-v-nand-ssd/

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-23 22:11 | Report Abuse

The share price was never my concern as I will never buy in this company but Since those vested have been personally attacking me and making up lies to con others I will have to share my research with the top 5 funds holding Jcy. Starting with the one holding 50m+ shares. They might be interested in the facts and evidence.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-24 00:11 | Report Abuse

Yaya, whatever. 3dnan.changing world. Hero coming

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-24 00:46 | Report Abuse

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/12/09/no_flash_datacentre_takeover/

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-24 00:46 | Report Abuse

No NAND's land: Flash will NOT take over the data centre

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-24 04:30 | Report Abuse

Intel and Micron are going to kill the hard disk drive
Massive advances in NAND flash storage could eventually render the old spinning drive obsolete.
For too long, it looked like SSD capacity would always lag well behind hard disk drives, which were pushing into the 6TB and 8TB territory while SSDs were primarily 256GB to 512GB.

That seems to be ending. Not long after Samsung announced a 3.2TB SSD drive, Intel announced its alliance with Micron Technology will yield enormous capacity SSD drives.
During an investor webcast last week, Intel announced it will begin offering 3D NAND drives in the second half of next year as part of its joint flash venture with Micron. It stacks 32 planar layers of NAND memory with 3 bits per cell for 32GB of storage in a single MLC die. Pack a bunch of those chips onto an SSD drive or PCI Express card and capacities will easily break the multiple terabyte barrier.

Intel hasn't decided which market segment will get this "breakthrough" technology first. SSD started out on the consumer side and worked its way into the data center slowly, because it had to prove its reliability and stability for the data center market, which has very little patience or tolerance for data loss.


http://article.wn.com/view/2014/11/24/Intel_and_Micron_are_going_to_kill_the_hard_disk_drive/

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-24 04:39 | Report Abuse

SSD Shipments To Double This Year, Hit 40 Percent Of Hard Drive Market By 2016

Anticipated growth in the Ultrabook business combined with falling flash memory component prices is expected to lead to a doubling of SSD shipments this year, according to a new report from IHS iSuppli.

SSD shipments worldwide could reach 83 million units in 2013, up significantly from the 39 million SSDs shipped last year, reported IHS iSuppli in a report the company released Wednesday.

The El Segundo, Calif.-based analyst firm also estimated that SSD shipments would reach 239 million units by 2016, or about 40 percent of total spinning hard drive market that year.
http://m.crn.com/news/storage/240146851/ssd-shipments-to-double-this-year-hit-40-percent-of-hard-drive-market-by-2016.htm