Abang Jo's acquisition of Affin Bank is not a frivolous endeavor but a strategic move in line with his comprehensive plan. The earnest pursuit of bank ownership is driven by Sarawak's vision to establish a self-sufficient economy, intending to economically detach from the declining Peninsular economy, especially in Penang. The forthcoming extensive infrastructure projects in Sarawak are anticipated to yield significant multiplier effects on the local economy. Singapore's substantial purchase of power from Sarawak via an undersea cable highlights the region's potential as a power supplier. It won't be surprising if Sabah follows suit in procuring power from Sarawak. Additionally, with Indonesia's new capital, Nusantara, potentially seeking power supply from Sarawak, the strategic acquisition becomes even more pivotal. The acquisition cost below Net Tangible Assets (NTA) implies that Abang Jo is essentially acquiring Affin Bank at little to no cost, especially when factoring in the potential value derived from the separation of AffinHwang Investment Bank, a substantial player in the stock market.
Affin Bank above 2.15 is bullish and below 2.15 is bearish. Key dates to watch are around 27 Feb 2024 and 08 May 2024.
The hype about the 3 O'clock announcement today was exaggerated hence I made the decision to sell and lock in profits. Yes, we are witnessing a new era for Affin, but we are still in the very very early days. My humble prediction (I could be wrong) is that we might return to below MYR 2.2 levels and might even touch MYR 2 levels before we proceed to MYR 3 levels. I welcome a good informative debate that can dispute my prediction.
The hype about the 3 O'clock announcement today was exaggerated hence I made the decision to sell and lock in profits. Yes, we are witnessing a new era for Affin, but we are still in the very very early days. My humble prediction (I could be wrong) is that we might return to below MYR 2.2 levels and might even touch MYR 2 levels before we proceed to MYR 3 levels. I welcome a good informative debate that can dispute my prediction.
@Bursino, that's very encouraging. I have always believed in Affin performance. My question is, the latest price performance justified or is it based on pure speculation. Are we, for example, going to see higher div payouts soon as a result?
You see the push downwards after 4.30pm. What want to lepaskan those who chase high today? Shark dapat apa? Crazy ah. They don’t force retailers to buy…. Retailers are Greedy.
@movennu, I respect your view but I disagree that there is a conspiracy against retailers. What happened is consistent with my 25 year experience in share investing. News > price movement > rumours > speculation > price hype > bubble explosion > settlement of price to reflect fundamentals.
My simple reasoning. Assuming the deal is done. All official state financial transactions will use the services of Affin. All State owned enterprises will have an account with Affin. All State employees salary will be debited into their Affin Bank account. All Sarawak friendly private companies are encouraged to use the services of Affin. Do you think these increased activities will generate additional profits? Do you think Affin will need to increase its capital? Rights, Bonus Issues and Sweeteners. I don't know. I am holding onto my shares.
The takeover code says if a party buys more than 20% from a controling shareholder holding more than 33% and changes/ takes the board control will be required to do a GO. These are on SCs website and has no exemption. Premier Abg Jo by saying Sarawak is buying more than 20% has spilled the beans. Question to all of us will Sarawak take Board Control?
Enjoy the ride. The sell down was probably done by EPF. Similar pattern for UMW before the GO was announced. EPF was just selling down. Morning price will up and towards the end o the day a big sell down. 3 days later you will see EPF announce a major sale of shares.
Singapore is to channel investments such as data centre projects into Sarawak under a proposal by the state to sell excess energy to the republic, Sarawak Premier Tan Sri Abang Johari Openg said on Tuesday.
The Star reported Sarawak intends to take around 30% in Affin to be Affins largest shareholder. This will surely trigger a GO, if there is a change in Board Control. Sarawak will not achieve its objective if it doesnt take Board Control of Affin. Only time will tell, hold on to your pop corn and cola.
Assessing the Potential of Sarawak's Banking and Mega-Project Developments
Privatization of Banking Group:
Unlikely: Privatizing a major banking group is a complex and sensitive undertaking with potential economic and political repercussions. While not entirely impossible, it's unlikely Abang Jo would prioritize this move given the potential risks and complexities involved.
Alternatives: Expanding the capital base and attracting strategic partnerships through joint ventures or minority stake sales might be more feasible and less disruptive approaches.
Potential Partnerships and Expansion:
DBS Collaboration: A collaboration with DBS, a leading Singaporean bank, could bring expertise and regional reach to Sarawak's banking sector.
Capital Base Expansion: Enlarging the capital base could strengthen Sarawak's financial institutions and enhance their lending capacity.
Mega-Project Pipeline: The proposed projects, including an undersea power cable, AI datacenter, and a Sarawakian counterpart to Petronas, linking projects to Indonesia's new capital, Nusantara, represent a vision for significant economic diversification and infrastructure development.
Technically speaking, Affin Bank has entered anti-gravity mode and the least resistance is on the upside. Above 2.15 is bullish and below 2.15 is bearish. Key dates to watch are around 27 Feb 2024 and 08 May 2024.
MRCB above 0.715 is bullish, below 0.715 is bearish. Key date to watch is 24 April 2024. The forecasted trajectory is heading south unless the price action can penetrate 0.715 comfortably.
They chase…. That’s the issue. Now really at market maker mercy. Haiz…. You see like TheContrarian he didn’t chase. Instead he already sell some to profit take. In share market everyone is for themselves.
There is no reason for Sarawak Gov to buy further stakes at such a high price. They will negotiate for special price. Logic thinking… moreover they got a block bought earlier at below RM2 a piece.
In order to have a 30% stake (more than 20%) needs prior approval from Bank Negara. It is understood that submission for approval to Bank Negara has been made. Announcement on the details, pricing only upon obtaining Bank Negara prior approval. We need to wait.
Should LTAT persist as the major shareholder, the acquisition could regress, given Affin Bank's trajectory towards becoming a cutting-edge bank with advanced technology for risk management. LTAT, being more risk-averse and conservative, might impede the bank's evolution into a leading Digital Bank, similar to the PhileoAllied Bank established by Tong Kooi Ong.
The concept of anti-gravity remains speculative, involving the creation of an object immune to gravitational forces. The recent Time Cycle Analysis posted on January 26, 2024, featured a yellow line at RM2.69. The subsequent high reaching RM2.69 cannot be dismissed as coincidental but rather indicative of a calculated orbit, utilizing state-of-the-art technology for tracking Near Earth Objects, such as asteroids.
From a technical perspective, Affin Bank appears to have entered an anti-gravity mode, with the path of least resistance favoring the upside. A bullish trend is anticipated above RM2.15, while a bearish scenario is envisaged below this threshold.
stock market is all about Expectations ,dude....how will affin perform under the management of the richest state by resources in msia vs. the non performing Ltat.Do you think sarawak will leave affin as status quo once they are in the driving seat?
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Posted by aklobi > 2024-01-30 14:54 | Report Abuse
Thanks TheContrarian. I really do wish all Affin shareholders the best of luck.