if i say short ward achieve 2.00 , a lot of fancy here will start condemn me , please watch yourself late noon , see gonna condemn me or not , spicy leak news , all iron metal MERCY RUN , like a mad horse .
I just want to inform that 25% import tariff imposed on steel products by US government had already been implemented months ago. The new rule to impose new 25% import tariff on USD 200 billion Chinese goods is NOT applicable to steel products. Please do not confused and get the facts right.
After implementing 25% import tariff imposed on steel products by US government, the share price of Ssteel is not affected. In actual fact the share price moved up north instead.
The current weakness on the share price of Ssteel is due to fear factor, there is no change in term of business fundamental.
Please note that Ssteel had been making profit year after year after 2010 except 2015 and 2016. The losses in 2015 and 2016 were due to China dumping of steel bars below cost in Malaysia. China government is cutting down the output of steel bar produced to protect the blue sky. There is a shortage of steel bars in China now, there is no more dumping of cheap steel bars to Malaysia. There is an import tariff of 18% imposed by Malaysian government to protect local steel bar producers. The worst is over for Ssteel.
The current weakness on the share price of Ssteel is due to fear factor, there is no change in term of business fundamental.
I agree with you...Mr Ooi....SSteel is currently fundamentally grossly undervalued....causing lots of investors....me included...to suffer some paper losses. I pity those who cannot hold on to this stock at least in the short to medium term. They sell due to fear..... are forced to sell....are impatient....some are losing hope....only to regret later. This is a Hong Leong company....it is not a rubbish stock. Just my 2 cents people.... If i am wrong please guide me....don't attack me. Thanks.
I will never attack any writer in I3, I am always more than willing to help. My advice to all, want to win big in stock market, patience is always the key. Buy good FA stock will seldom go wrong. Even go wrong, the loss is always minimum. I cannot sleep well if my stock selected is a speculative stock.
Mr. OTB asked his followers to buy lionind during the stockwatch this weekend.
See now Mr. OTB help the syndicate to offload the lionind shares even though he aware that the steel demand is not high and alliance steel production is going to flood the malaysia market with excessive production due to the halt of ECRL project..
Mr. OTB first time asked followers to cutloss below 0.70 to let syndicates collect at cheap price, then ask his followers to buy back at priuce 1.10 to let syndicates offload the shares. See syndicates can easily make profit of more than 60% in one month.
Next week Ssteel will announce its last qtr result (ignore its court case with assumption this has been fully provision in accounts)
1) Compared to same qtr corresponding year, we notice that average selling price has picked up from 2nd half year 2017 until now, and although compared to previous qtr, there is single digit % dropped in revenue, but compared to same qtr previous FY, the average selling price is still better to cover the COGS, estimate revenue will be 840,000-880,000 in between.
2) Graphite electrode, the cost of this item is being diminished from its high, there should be some reduction on this purchase cost.
3) Bottomline, using 850,000 x 5% = 42,500 (M) AGAK AGAK for this qtr (assume no PPE written down). So total 4 qtr profit will be 218,000 (M). So annual EPS will be 218,000 / 433,642 = 0.50. Using PE 6, so the TP will be 3.00.
Now the price is 1.86, potential upward is about 61%. Besides, the steel price is still climbing upward coupled with the continuation of infra and mega building projects and exemption of SST on steel products, what you need to wait for ? Tomorrow first thing is to buy Ssteel.
You may miss the ride on Lionind, but don't forget there is another diamond for you to collect, there is Ssteel. Forget about Graphite Electrode cost, since average selling price is climbing up whereby graphite electrode cost is stepping down.
I thought scrap iron price has gone up by a lot in Q2 hence ssteel and Masteel are disadvantaged relative to Annjoo and Lionind? And that graphite electrodes price has gone up multiple times in terms of cost?
Graphite electrodes huge jump last year ... this year is diminishing ... i refer to china website and one of the listed co in china is mainly selling this .... the shares price also droppwd from 38 to today 24 .... you can google search .... do search yourself
Scrap price .... noted ... margin i had reduced from 5.9% to 5% to reflect this material cost .. i will re agak agak compute again ... might be bit lower than 5% ... will come back on this.
For apr to jun compared to jan to mar .... average selling price is dropping but in percentage of dropping is within single digit ... impact to bottomline is minimal .... bottomline do decrease but still in acceptable profit range ... without any non cash flow p&l adj. . .this qtr profit will be better than last year qtr.
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Posted by goodluck999 > 2018-07-17 10:31 | Report Abuse
congratulation to those who managed to catch it at lower end ,haha