Oil price drop means less subsidy from the government hence increase in cost of production which translates into lower profit margins. I believe that there's a timing difference issue in the derivation of subsidies which works to the disadvantage of Petdag.
I blindly entered although I do not really know how this subsidy removal will pan out. Perhaps there may be a window-dressing activity towards year end & this stock could be tinkered to push up FBMKLCI.
Pioneer Natural Resources said it has options through 2016 covering two- thirds of its likely production. “We can produce down to $50 a barrel,” said Harold Hamm, from Continental Resources. The International Energy Agency said most of North Dakota’s vast Bakken field “remains profitable at or below $42 per barrel. The break-even price in McKenzie County, the most productive county in the state, is only $28 per barrel.”
CIMB research view appears rational - that 5 sen/litre will continue & the removal of Govt subsidies will improve cash flow - both of which are positive for the counter.
govt had given all oil retailers "extra" 5 sen/litre since 2006. This 5 sen had cushion them since 2006 and bring in hefty profit ever since (go n check chart from 2004). But opposition revealation of this fact had been played down by the media! Its time govt take back this 5 sen first rather than up the pump price and make everyone unhappy.
The prospect of oil & gas industry is negative....but Petronas companies are trading at more PE 0f 20.......obviously are supported by local government linked fund....it won't last as the crude oil price war will continue.....
even in last Sep quarterly account, compared with last year, the profit has reduced from RM226 mil to RM160mil...... I don't believe any non government linked fund managers will invest at PE of more than 20...
Malaysian oil is better than Shale oil. Its rare high quality oil, which Shale oil cant replace. Plus Petdag income is also from petrol station..shale oil or not..they can always buy and sell at their station
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
apprentice
789 posts
Posted by apprentice > 2014-11-05 22:46 | Report Abuse
The 20sen increase goes to the govt, not Petdag. Next quarter profit will be even worse for Petdag.