Posted by Xxxting > 2021-02-10 13:50 | Report Abuse

Bought in 2.20*

Posted by gemfinder > 2021-02-10 13:57 | Report Abuse

Just add n averaging down. If u csn hold just hild it. U wil win. Unless u dun hv money to pickup

Posted by kingstormer > 2021-02-10 14:17 | Report Abuse

waiting for it to go down, then start to collect

Posted by Lutgardis > 2021-02-10 14:18 | Report Abuse

Gemfinder it’s up to fion la giving opinion no need don’t listen to fion :/

Posted by Lutgardis > 2021-02-10 14:18 | Report Abuse

Xxxting u do more study la

Posted by Centurion > 2021-02-10 22:30 | Report Abuse

Start your rocket. T + 2 is over.... and there's a squeeze on tin!

Posted by LA777 > 2021-02-10 23:11 | Report Abuse

Tin price 24,301, all time high!

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 09:28 | Report Abuse

Good flush. Weak holders out

Posted by mahmudkashimj > 2021-02-11 09:55 | Report Abuse

THE FV FOR THE SHARE IS AT RM1.50

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 11:51 | Report Abuse

Minimal resistance!

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 11:54 | Report Abuse

Likely to challenge recent 2.59-high after CNY

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 11:59 | Report Abuse

May even happen today at the rate it is going...

Posted by gemfinder > 2021-02-11 12:04 | Report Abuse

c, if u folow fion cut loss. sure gg. hahahaha

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 12:05 | Report Abuse

RSI now offers ample room for appreciation after the recent correction.

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 12:09 | Report Abuse

Xxxting, u can sell your expensive ones today and keep the cheaper ones if you do not have the nerve to ride this volatile train.

Posted by kkteng70 > 2021-02-11 12:15 | Report Abuse

tin New High !!!

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 12:50 | Report Abuse

My back-of-envelope calculation of 2021 mine profit:

Tin-in-concentrates:

RHT output 2500t (2288t in 2019)
SLT output 1200t*0.8 (80% stake of about 1200t p.a. when it ceased op in the 80s)
Total output = 3460t
assume 75% yield (70-75% average for SEA according to Britainica) from tin-in-concentrates to refined tin,
Refined tin from own mines = 2595t

all-in-cost of own tin production = USD15k.

If price holds at USD23k on avg for 2021, mining profit alone wud be as follows:

2595 * (25000-15000) * 4 = RM83.0m b4 tax

Those who know the flaw of my assumptions, pls point out so that I can refine my calculations.

I don't know how to calculate the smelting operation's profit. Those who know pls show.

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 12:58 | Report Abuse

Smelting side should sit on huge inventory profit from price increase since

Posted by stella809x > 2021-02-11 13:24 | Report Abuse

That's why always do own research... Not chase high n follow ppl opinion.

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 15:10 | Report Abuse

since end-3Q20

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-11 15:19 | Report Abuse

Those who know how to calculate the future property development profit from JV with Strait Trading on MSC's existing land pls enlighten us on that. My gut feel says it is going to be huge.

Posted by Creativeteam > 2021-02-11 17:25 | Report Abuse

Tin price 2day US$25458. Other metal prices also on uptrend. Metal Ox yr

Posted by Centurion > 2021-02-11 19:02 | Report Abuse

Butterworth plant will only close end 2022. 1 year after Port Klang reach full Capacity

Posted by Creativeteam > 2021-02-11 23:20 | Report Abuse

New plant capacity may not be adequate given more users leading to higher prices inducing higher mining n thus more refining. This means butterworth plant closure may be delayed

Posted by GorengHealthcare > 2021-02-12 20:40 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/rise-and-rise-tin-prices

Old report in Dec 2020 related to msc but that time price was 1.04.

Posted by Hafid > 2021-02-13 21:24 | Report Abuse

Back in 2008 the share price is traded at rm2.11. with the tin price increase so much I think the share price will not drop below rm2.14 which is recently low.

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-14 09:15 | Report Abuse

Based on the Edge article,

Avg daily production = (10500 + 200)kg or 10.7t
Assume 300 days of mining a year, can expect 2021 annual tin-in-concentrates production of 3210t, which translates into 2407.5t of refined tin assuming 75% yield.

Assuming US$:RM exhange rate of 4.0 and avg refined tin px of US$23000/t (about 25,000 currently in terms of spot px) , mining profit alone would be 2407.5 * (23000 - 15000) * 4 or RM77.04m.

A sensitivity analysis can be easily carried out assuming different values of mining days and average spot px.

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-14 09:17 | Report Abuse

RM77.04m b4 tax

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-14 09:24 | Report Abuse

Smelting profit tends to be fatter on rising tin price presumably driven by inventory profit. I notice end-3Q 20 inventory was huge, meaning likely substantial inventory gain for smelting in the upcoming 4Q20 earnings announcement. 1Q21 smelting profit should be even fatter on accelerated tin price increase.

Posted by Hafid > 2021-02-14 09:40 | Report Abuse

Malaysia Smelting Corporation is involved on almost all levels of the supply chain, they have better supply chain management and better understanding on product demand and supply

Highly experience management team: CEO Patrick Yong [He founded Sulfarid Technology in 2004 which is believed to be involved in developing and marketing electronic and electrical equipment. He was also the chief operating officer of Tai Kwang Yokohama which is an active player in the battery market. Although not explicitly quoted to him, I believe the company's perspective on the future of battery for EV industry is an idea of his. Similarly, the CFO has 25 years experience with MSC while COO Raveentiran has been in this industry for 25 years.]

The company have Impressive customer portfolio such as Toyota Corporation, Japan, Hanwha Corporation and LG International, Korean , Chemetall GmbH, JPMorgan Metals and a variety of other customers. The company's customer base primarily consists of electronic manufacturers, commodities brokers, London Metal Exchange and Kuala Lumpur Tin Market.

Posted by Hafid > 2021-02-14 16:11 | Report Abuse

I will say RM2.90 to 3.20 for next few months.

Posted by mahmudkashimj > 2021-02-14 16:14 | Report Abuse

masih boleh naik pergi RM3.00. terlalu banyak permintaan. sudah tentu harga akan melambung....kita tunggu dan light.

Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-02-14 17:22 | Report Abuse

mulai esok, msc akan mencuba harga tertinggi sebelumnya 2.59 ringgit dan hasilnya akan keluar selepas 21 februari. saya mencarinya melebihi 3 ringgit dan mencecah 5 ringgit menjelang April 2021. beli dan tahan

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-02-15 10:38 | Report Abuse

cg14134, why your yearly production so low??? where you get this figure from? As what the CEO mentioned, the Prai plant produced about 2+k tonne per year, while new plant in Pulau Indah shall able to produce 40k tonne + maximum can shot up to 60k tonne if demand needed.

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-02-15 10:39 | Report Abuse

MSC to scale up its production capacity by 50% from 40,000 tonnes to 60,000

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/04/msc-sees-pulau-indah-smelting-plant-as-game-changer

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-02-15 10:40 | Report Abuse

Malaysia Smelting Corporation's main business activities take place in their plant located in Butterworth with a production capacity of approximately 40000 tonnes a year using reverbatory furnace technology.

http://www.sharetisfy.com/2017/07/msc-5916-malaysia-smelting-corporation.html

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-02-15 10:47 | Report Abuse

global semiconductor sales 2016 about USD30B versus below:

WASHINGTON—Feb. 1, 2021—The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced the global semiconductor industry sales were $439.0 billion in 2020, an increase of 6.5% compared to the 2019 total of $412.3 billion

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-02-15 10:49 | Report Abuse

The global semiconductor market will be $655.6B in 2025 compared to $342.7B in 2015 with CAGR of 6.7%.

https://www.semi.org/en/semiconductor-industry-2015-2025

Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-02-15 10:52 | Report Abuse

40000 tonnes t least
Profit should be 200 mil before tax

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-02-15 11:02 | Report Abuse

200m, is it per QR?

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-15 11:03 | Report Abuse

Dalpinia, my numbers relate to own mines only. The smelting vol is of course much higher, but the margin is much smaller - single digit + inventory gain/loss (depending on direction of refined tin px movement)

According to the Edge article, RHT daily avg production vol is 10,500kg/day and SLT 100-200kg/day. Numbers not mine, only calculations mine, which could be off of course!

Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-02-15 11:08 | Report Abuse

200 mil for the whole year

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-15 11:10 | Report Abuse

Yield of 75% must also be accounted for when converting from tin-in-concentrates to refined tin at the smelting plant.

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-15 11:11 | Report Abuse

I also assume 300-day of mining only, not 365 days.

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-15 11:22 | Report Abuse

Smelting profit would be huge in 4Q20 on inventory gain, and even bigger in 1Q21. However, how much to incorporate into future share price gain is debatable as it may not be sustainable year-in-year-out.

Share price will definitely go up, perhaps to 3.50-4.00? Gua pun tak tahu!

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-15 11:28 | Report Abuse

When refined tin price is not trending, smelting profit margin is probably just 2-5% depending on capacity utilisation rate of the smelting plant.

Mining profit margin can remain fat so long as refined tin price is staying at high level as it is now.

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-02-15 11:33 | Report Abuse

Pulau Indah new technology:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR2FWMMeI8ZSOKw29wXiYI4tTRn9fAX-IzgVD3ZMng5cRs1v_pr40VEeoIo&v=ZmZh2hQLm58&feature=youtu.be

Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-02-15 11:44 | Report Abuse

It should be worth 5 ringgit once the results come out next week
We have not even factored in the butterworth land
Add another 5-10 ringgit for the land jv
Hold MSC until 2023/24
Should see close to 10-15 ringgit

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-15 12:46 | Report Abuse

Yes. Am positive on the Butterworth land. Won't be priced in till 2023-2024 though...

Posted by cg14134 > 2021-02-15 13:29 | Report Abuse

Inventory @ end-3Q20 = RM532.5m on refined tin px of US$17463/t
Assuming similar vol of inventory @ end-4Q20, inventory gain = (20540/17463-1)*532.5 = RM93.8m for 4Q20.

A similar vol of inventory @ end-1Q21 assuming end-1Q21 refined tin price of US$25000/t would give an inventory gain of (25000/20540-1)(532.5*20540/17463) = RM136.0m for 1Q21.

End-Qtr price based on LME tin cash px.