Posted by lotuseater > 2021-06-11 16:42 | Report Abuse

Sometimes epf sell to lock-in profits.. just because they sell doesn’t mean doom and gloom

Posted by DickyMe > 2021-06-15 20:44 | Report Abuse

https://www.msn.com/en-my/money/markets/hydrogen-planes-electric-propulsion-and-new-regulations-aviation-is-changing/ar-AAL3Ar8?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBr8Hnu

The end of fossil fuel is rapidly approaching.

Posted by chivesparsley > 2021-06-15 21:45 | Report Abuse

It's the current trend to use other source of energy to power this world. What is used the most is electric power and the source is? Solar, wind, hydraulic, nuclear, fossil fuel. First 3 is rely on environment condition, nuclear is about safety, fossil fuel is easiest. Probably need a tech break through to make it stays as fossil.

Posted by lotuseater > 2021-06-15 22:06 | Report Abuse

End of fossil fuel? Not in our lifetime.

Posted by kpowersohai > 2021-06-17 19:24 | Report Abuse

please study petronas gas is doing what business first, this is not petrol counter....learn what is natural gas and its sustainbility

Posted by kpowersohai > 2021-06-17 22:57 | Report Abuse

' Natural gas is the cleanest-burning hydrocarbon. Natural gas emits between 45% and 55% lower greenhouse gas emissions than coal when used to generate electricity, according to IEA data. Compared to coal-fired power plants, modern natural gas-fired power plants emit less than one-tenth of the pollutants. However, natural gas consists mainly of methane, a potent greenhouse gas with a higher impact on global warming than carbon dioxide"


read more at the below link....


https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/natural-gas/natural-gas-the-facts.html

Posted by nisah395 > 2021-06-18 16:54 | Report Abuse

The closing price drop so much?

Posted by nisah395 > 2021-06-18 16:56 | Report Abuse

thanks for sharing


ivanlau > hidden gem , high dividend, today closing 15.98, the fair value in 2021 will be rm 20, think about that ......
25/05/2021 7:23 PM

Posted by ivanlau > 2021-06-26 09:56 | Report Abuse

The business intact, fundamental intact, I am still sticking to my original analysis :
" hidden gem , high dividend, the fair value in 2021 will be rm 20, think about that ...... "

Posted by kpowersohai > 2021-06-28 07:55 | Report Abuse

drop lower, buy more.....natural gas will be important for a developing country as a bridge between fuel and renewable energy.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-06-28 08:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stingray_ea > 2021-06-28 09:31 | Report Abuse

petgas replace bat in stingray_ea ranking ...... Dividen Yield% ... Petgas will lead klci ...

OIl price toward 100 usd. US OIL is 74.29 usd now


come come come ....

Posted by stingray_ea > 2021-06-28 09:46 | Report Abuse

target price RM 22 for petgas

Posted by stingray_ea > 2021-06-28 09:47 | Report Abuse

keep this secret here ....

Posted by stingray_ea > 2021-06-28 11:05 | Report Abuse

so far so good....

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stingrayeapetgas/2021-06-06-story-h1566077213-stingray_ea_Petgas_Vs_Petdag_Vs_Pchem_Which_is_your_choice.jsp

Posted by observatory > 2021-06-30 14:33 | Report Abuse

Haha, here you appear. After posting your RM20 TP for BAT, you disappeared without a trace. Even old comments were deleted.

Posted by observatory > 2021-06-30 14:38 | Report Abuse

BTW Petgas profitability has little to do with oil and gas price. It's largely driven by regulated asset return. Need to watch for allowed tariffs under coming RP2 and RP3.

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-06-30 19:56 | Report Abuse

observatory, any idea why the share price is so high in 2013, but drop so low recently?

Posted by DickyMe > 2021-06-30 19:58 | Report Abuse

When rats are around what do you expect?

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-01 00:05 | Report Abuse

@unicornbird, I'm actually new to this stock. This is just my guess. Any long term shareholders here can correct me.

Looking back, net profit grew very fast until 2013-14, but was since stagnant despite moderate revenue growth.

Bursa sentiment was also weak since the 1MDB scandal. Petgas being an index component could be impacted.

Besides until last year I still read the argument that gas is the necessary transitional fuel to a decarbonized world since solar and wind energies are constraint by intermittent power. Gas could replace many coal fired power plants as it emits just half of the greenhouse gas. But with rapid advances in battery storage technology (driven by EV industry), such argument is rare nowadays. Some investors may envision a direct jump from coal to large scale renewables like wind and solar backed up with efficient energy storage. (But according to EC roadmap, gas still has a growing role, just that it's years away)

Looking forward, as share price continues to weaken, yet cashflow remains strong, and a solid balance sheet allowing it to take on more debts, the stock can be defensive.

However I also suspect that some fund managers are concerned about the impacts of upcoming RP2. This may explain some of the selling pressure.

Posted by kpowersohai > 2021-07-01 04:42 | Report Abuse

@observatory, may be can read this news

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/02/23/petgas-earnings-to-stay-resilient

Regarding the rp2

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-01 08:03 | Report Abuse

observatory, thank you for sharing. Am i right to say, no matter how they adjust the rates, it has to return around 5% yield to shareholder? Else EPF can't pay out decent dividends to retirees

Please ignore about the climate thing. Wind & solar can't replace gas so quickly. Battery will get very expensive, if there's spike in energy storage demand. So gas is still important electric generator

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-07-01 08:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-01 09:41 | Report Abuse

@unicornbird, the tariff under RP2 is set by EC. The dividend payout to petgas shareholders will not be the top priority. But EC needs to set a fair return to encourage investment. But EC needs to also consider end users/ industries which are recovering after the pandemic.

The dividend policy is 50% payout. But excluding special dividends, the past three years petgas has paid up to 72 sen out of about 100 sen earnings. Conservatively I will expect at least 72sen.

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-01 09:52 | Report Abuse

Thanks obs. Do you foresee that Petgas can increase it's earning by average of 3% per year to counter inflation?
The EC should approve tariff hike at least to cover inflation right?

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-01 09:54 | Report Abuse

I am buying Petgas for stable dividend. So I don't have to collect card boards when I old.

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-01 12:07 | Report Abuse

@unicornbird, tariff may continue to come down, but profit can still grow as long as regulated asset base and efficiency grow even faster. Being a regulated monopoly, I think the base scenario is petgas will grow along Malaysia economy growth.

The other point is the company is near net cash. Given its stable cash flow, it should take on more debt which is cheaper and return excess capital to shareholders.

I think the stock can play a defensive role in a diversified portfolio.

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-01 12:10 | Report Abuse

@kpower, the article says earning resiliency will continue until RP1 ends. No forecast on RP2.

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-01 14:51 | Report Abuse

obs, is it right to say among the 3 listed Petronas group of company, Petgas is the best in term of stable dividend?
Dagang & Chem seems to have unstable earning growth over past 10 years. thanks

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-01 16:44 | Report Abuse

I'd think so. PetDag's business is competitive. Fuel business was also hit by the pandemic. Quite incredible that it was sold at ~25 times forward PE before the pandemic. PetChem may be a better investment. But it's exposed to the volatile commodity prices so earning and dividend are inherently unstable.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-07-01 16:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-01 19:49 | Report Abuse

obs, apart from Petgas, do you buy any other similar companies with stable dividend?

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-01 19:51 | Report Abuse

PetChem has large joint venture with BASF in Kuantan & Pengerang. So I guess they will do very well in long term.
Looks like Malaysia will become the next booming economy, as many MNC are forced out of China due to trade war

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-01 21:11 | Report Abuse

unicornbird, you can check my past comments. I discussed some of them in this forum. But I don't hold ICAP, a stock with questionable corporate governance which I've spent some time studying.

I suggest you check out the Allianz forum which I've learned a lot others. If you decide that you're interested you may consider buying the illiquid ICPS. It is traded at a slight premium than ordinary shares but it pays 20% more dividend.

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-01 21:42 | Report Abuse

A good dividend stock must not only have stable dividend, but earning & dividend must also grow with time. And has to be bought at a fair price.

Petgas can be considered a stable dividend stock. Not expensive. But its growth potential is rather limited. It currently pays out about 70% earning. If ROE is maintained at 15%, that means theoretically the earning growth = (100% - 70%) * 15% = 4.5%.

Some stocks have even higher payout ratio. MNCs like Nestle, Carlsberg and Heineken payouts 90% to 100% earning. Despite high ROE, growth is still limited to ~5% retained earning x ROE. Besides such stocks are rarely sold at bargain price. Certainly not now.

There might be a sweet spot for less well known, yet stable growth + dividend stocks with at least 3% to 4% dividend yield. But the stocks should have at least 10 year track record in revenue, profit and dividend growth. If the EPS (after adjusting for capital changes like bonus issue etc) has a CAGR of 10%, a 1 sen EPS ten years ago should have grown to 2.6 sen today.

If such a stock trades at say 10X PE, with 40% payout ratio, then the dividend yield is 4%. If the stock can maintain a 15% ROE in coming few years, in theory the earning could grow at (100% - 40%) * 15% = 9%, which is respectable.

There are probably not many such stocks. But this could be a good screen to shortlist some potential dividend growth stocks.

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-02 09:23 | Report Abuse

obs, for preference share. I see that Sunway Pref pays about 5.5% dividend. that's not impressive, because the FD rate in bank is already about 3.5% in normal times. And the dividend yield of strong company like Petgas is close to Pref share. Do you know any solid companies paying higher rate?

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-02 09:27 | Report Abuse

If you follow the investment amount declared by MITI, the amount of investment into Malaysia is insane. It runs into hundreds of billion USD, that's the largest amount probably in human history. All these injections aim to drive energy intensive industry like semicon, chemical plants, iron smelter, etc. Those will drive Petgas volume, as I think Petgas supply gas to the power plants.

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-02 09:30 | Report Abuse

Nestle & Carls high price probably caused by money printing in EU. they print too much money, so those funds get 0% loans to buy Carls at 2% yield. Wait for Fed to raise rate, and hopefully these consumer stock will have a more friendly price. I hope to buy some of these

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-02 14:01 | Report Abuse

Hi unicorn, I just checked. According to Azmin, 2020 full year DDI (domestic direct investment) + FDI was RM164b. So far in 1H21 it was about RM100b.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/06/17/miti-expects-malaysia-to-achieve-higher-total-investments-this-year-says-az/1982972

For perspective, approved DDI was RM175b in 2014, declining to RM129b in 2019. Approved FDI was RM65b in 2014 and RM83b in 2019. So at best the recent increase in direct investment is just a recovery.

https://www.mida.gov.my/mida-news/insight-domestic-or-foreign-investment/

The other point is, the most energy intensive industries like aluminum smelting will rely on non-fossil fuel power. For example, Press Metal taps into Sarawak hydro power to produce green aluminum. At the same time, increasingly manufacturers are installing roof top solar to improve their ESG score. The latest announcement is from Top Glove.

Energy consumption growth in Malaysia will be slower than its GDP growth. This is also a trend in more developed economies. Actually future electricity demand is quite predictable as they have to be planned years ahead.

As stated in the Peninsular Malaysia Generation Development Plan agreed by the cabinet in Oct 2020,
“the net demand is projected to grow by 0.6% p.a. for 2021-2030 and 1.8% p.a. for 2030-2039. This net demand will be used for supply planning at the transmission side.” (page 5)

https://www.st.gov.my/en/contents/files/download/169/Report_on_Peninsular_Malaysia_Generation_Development_Plan_2020_(2021-2039)-FINAL.pdf

Refer Figure 5, new capacities planned until 2028 will be exclusively in renewable energy. In fact the share of gas in electricity generation will decline from current 45% to 35% in 2028 before increasing again due to coal fired plants being phased out.

For this reason, I feel that PetGas will experience weak to moderate growth in the medium term. May be this is one more reason the share comes under selling pressure in recent years.

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-02 14:03 | Report Abuse

A note on Sunway vs Allianz ICPS. There are two differences.

One is the former has mandatory conversions in 2024 and 25. The latter is irredeemable on perpetual basis.

Second is Sunway ICPS dividend is capped at 5.25%. Holders cannot enjoy upsides like special dividend for ordinary shareholders. Meanwhile Allianz ICPS is set at 20% more than the ordinary share dividend. So it can ride on the company growth.

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-02 19:41 | Report Abuse

obs, very detailed research. Do you have any idea where Malaysia will install those solar panels? Don't think roof top is enough to generate enough energy for factory.
No wonder so many large solar companies invest in Penang

there are Jinko solar at bayan lepas, and Risen in Kulim
https://ir.jinkosolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/jinkosolar-plans-build-cell-module-manufacturing-facility-penang
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2021/06/701876/chinas-risen-energy-picks-malaysia-first-southeast-asian-mega-plant-invest

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-02 19:44 | Report Abuse

Do Petgas benefit from export?
Example, to pipe gas from offshore gas field & then liquefy to sell to China

Posted by unicornbird > 2021-07-02 20:00 | Report Abuse

for Allianz ICPS, is it equal to common stock, but have 20% dividend?
Usually for preferred share, the dividend is fixed. How does it set the 20% extra compared to common stock? thanks

Posted by observatory > 2021-07-02 21:53 | Report Abuse

There are many Large Scale Solar (LSS) projects. The bidding for LSS4 have just concluded recently. Many listed companies are involved. You can google them. Just that I think it's a low margin and capital intensive business.

Petgas is domestic focus. It has four segments -- gas processing, transportation. regasification and utilities. You can check out the Annual Report. LNG sales to foreign countries by Petronas involves shipping instead of pipelines. Petronas subsidiary MISC is involved.

When I wrote Allianz ICPS distributes 20% more dividend, I actually means ICPS holders get 1.2X the dividend received by ordinary shareholders. For example, FY20 dividend is 58 sen per ordinary share, or 58sen * 1.2 = 69.6 sen per ICPS.

I just quote this as an example of dividend stocks with growth potential, among several stocks that I've commented in i3.

Posted by stingray_ea > 2021-07-03 07:20 | Report Abuse

74.29. —-> US oil hit 76.2 usd … Target 100 usd
Let see how petgas price react… down or up .

Posted by stingray_ea > 2021-07-04 16:36 | Report Abuse

stingray_ea: Petgas(6033) Vs US Oil movement

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stingrayeapetgas/2021-07-04-story-h1567805860-petgas_Vs_US_Oil_movement.jsp

Posted by stingray_ea > 2021-07-04 20:28 | Report Abuse

buy cheap petgas to hedge inflation when klci drop ..

Posted by stingray_ea > 2021-07-05 08:56 | Report Abuse

dividend is King at deep price ..

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stingrayeapetgas/2021-06-06-story-h1566077213-stingray_ea_Petgas_Vs_Petdag_Vs_Pchem_Which_is_your_choice.jsp

Posted by Consultant > 2021-07-05 15:25 | Report Abuse

it is possible for pet gas drop to 14

Posted by lotuseater > 2021-07-05 17:20 | Report Abuse

On what basis - Pls tell me how.. don’t make sweeping statements to scare people..