"In line with the rout in global equity markets, most local stocks have also seen sharp declines in share prices over the last two weeks due to the mounting concerns over the Covid-19 pandemic. CCK Consolidated, well-known for its solid business and defensive nature, was not spared from the frenzied selling either as its share price sank nearly 32% YTD. The stock is now trading at an unjustifiable forward FY20 PER of only 6.4x. We suggest investors take a look at CCK again given its i) uninterrupted business during the Movement Control Order (MCO) period, ii) recession-proof business, and iii) new earnings contribution from the two supermarkets in Kuching and Kota Kinabalu, which has not been imputed in our FY20-22 earnings forecasts. Maintain Outperform call with an unchanged TP of RM0.79 based on 14x FY20 EPS, giving a huge potential upside of 119%."
"1. Expanding into bigger retail space. It currently runs 59 stores in East Malaysia. To cater for a wider range of grocery products, the Group is planning to open 2 supermarkets, one each in Kuching and Kota Kinabalu this year. The supermarket can cater for up to 8,000 SKUs, which is 8x larger than the retail store. It is expected to break even within a year. The Group also plans to open three more retail stores; two in Sabah and 1 Sarawak. The allocated capex for each store is about RM500,000. All-in, total capex for FY20 is about RM20m-RM25m.
2. Uninterrupted operation during the MCO period. We understand that the company’s operations are not affected given that its business falls under the “essential” sector. Instead, we expect to see robust sales in 1QFY20 as consumers stock up poultry products amid the movement control order period. We also expect to see a surge in egg demand ahead of the Hari Raya and Harvest Festival celebrations in May.
3. Share buybacks. The recent dip in CCK’s share price has exposed deep value in the company and has pressed management into action, with about 400,000 shares bought back thus far. Meanwhile, some of the company’s directors have also been acquiring additional shares in the open market.
4. Trading at -1 standard deviation level. YTD, the company’s share price has fallen 32% to the current level of 36sen. It is also trading at an unwarranted forward PER of only 6.4x, >50% discount to the consumer sector’s average PER of 15x. The stock is also trading at -1 standard deviation to its long-term historical average. Given recent weaknesses in soybean (YTD: -5.5%) and corn prices (YTD: 10%) as well as solid demand for poultry products, we do not expect any downside risks to earnings this year."
The 3 points below trigger to buy CCK during MCO: i) Company’s operations are not affected given that its business falls under the “essential” sector ii) Current - Robust sales for the first quarter of FY20 (1QFY20) as consumers stock up poultry products amid the MCO period iii) Future - A surge in egg demand ahead of the Hari Raya and Harvest Festival celebrations in May
Buy CCK at current PE only 6.4 as: i) Uninterrupted business during the movement control order (MCO) period ii) Recession-proof business iii) New earnings contribution from the two supermarkets in Kuching and Kota Kinabalu, which has not been imputed in our FY20-22 earnings forecasts,
Truely undervalue. MCO business no prob..tmrw rocket again. Lets huat together !
CCK (Outpeform, TP: RM0.79): Proposes 1.25sen dividend. CCK Consolidated has proposed a first and final dividend of 1.25sen a share for the financial FY19. The entitlement dates and payment dates for the dividend would be announced at a later date. The poultry firm recorded a net profit of RM33.62m for FY19, up 20.52%. EPS rose to 5.34sen from 4.23sen. Revenue rose 5.87% to RM659.74m from RM623.17m in FY18. (The Edge)
V simple logic ma, others consumer items r not essential. So wat is essential. So during such time, few things most important 2 public - toilet paper (buy NTPM), eggs & chicken & frozen meat (CCK), face mask & PPE (OCN Cash), face shield (SCGM), Glove (no nd 2 say la so many)
I believe this year will be a good year for CCK, 2 new supermarekt & operation during MCO as a boost, declare dividend & reasonable P/E. I'll follow TP 0.8
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
DreamKentut
897 posts
Posted by DreamKentut > 2020-03-20 12:03 | Report Abuse
CalvinTanEng, do not cheat investors with your lies
NETX is not investment grade.
They have erratic record in submitting QR report
Constant losses
Revenue worse than nasi lemak, char koay teow and mamak stall combined.
You will rot in hell for lying to investors
You will be born as TOILET FLY in next birth for misleading.