@Ryan83, true, which is why we expect Supermax performance to be worse than Harta/Kossan. Since the CBP ban supermax price suffer the greatest drop, already well below many analyst target price. Should recover some of those losses once bans are lifted.
Based on reports I read, analysts mentioned 4Q volume grew 13% to 18% as compared to 3Q due to low base effects. Does anyone read about actual sales quantity or utilization?
My own estimate is about 66% utilization. It's higher than Harta 52% in 4Q.
@Observatory, what yr view on Harta Vs Kossan? both cash rich but kossan EPS r better than Harta for this Q and yet Harta share price is x2.8Kossan, what your opinion?
Based on the article from.Nanyang press which quoted rhb report, the utilization is 80 % . This is very high compared with Harta and Topglove. Kossan is very resilient in the current oversupply situation. If at 80 % utilization, the blended ASP work out to about US 35 per 1000. https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/952439
@pjseow, thanks for the info. 80% is very high indeed
80% utilization implies (32/4 billion pieces) * 0.8 = 6.4 billion pieces. With some simplified assumptions, revenue RM925m / 6.4b = RM145 per 1,000 of blended ASP, or about USD35 as you've pointed out.
Based on my record, during 3Q21 Maybank estimated blended ASP USD66-70 per 1,000. Given that 4Q ASP declines 35% to 40% QoQ, the 4Q ASP should have been higher at 68 * (1 - 0.4) = USD41, which contradicts our calculation.
One reason could be due to large difference between production (which affects utilization) and shipment (which affects revenue).
There is another possibility. RHB report says "Currently, Kossan’s utilization rate is at 80%." it may mean utilization as of Feb 2022 is at 80%. However the average 4Q utilization could be much lower (and ASP higher).
Either way, it's good to know they operated/ is now operating at a normal level.
Observatory, With the last QR inventory valued at 423 millions valued at 35 to 40 % lower ASP than the preceeding QR inventory valued at 408 million with higher ASP , it means the the inventory volumes in.last QR were much higher than preeding QR. The RHB report did mention that they had container shortage problem also. It means some of the shipments were withheld as finished goods inventory due to container shortage. The inventory as a percentage of revenue is 15 % higher than preceeding qtr. Hence I believe the Utilization may be just slightly lower than 80 % and the ASP for last qtr could be between USD 35 to 41.
@pjseow, yes, part of the inventory is FG not shipped due to shipping disruption. However the inventory is valued at cost. The changing ASP does not affect the inventory value.
18th Feb's announcement on the renewal of share buyback authority. Looks like they have intention to do it. With the cash they have, it's not a surprise then.
@derickuan, the announcement is nothing new. Prior to their AGM this mandate needed to be tabled out for shareholders to vote. Not necessary mean the management will do a share buyback.
NatsukoMishima; Careplus ady losss , do you think spmx kossan harta and topglove will still produce gloves? my answer is no...I heard their all production line closed down....soon world no more people supply gloves...
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CharlesT
14,538 posts
Posted by CharlesT > 2022-02-18 09:39 | Report Abuse
Philip ( buy what you understand) Then why is kossan 4 billion and harta still 17 billion?
>>>>>>>>
Sslee Kossan EPS 8.57 cents compare to Harta EPS 7.58 cents
Harta more room to drop.
17/02/2022 10:25 PM
18/02/2022 9:29 AM
Dont worry lah the day will come for Harta