the wa is waiting the mother to cut through the rm1 psychological resistance ... mother is trying to but I wish it do it in slow motion, the quick one always cant sustain :) Happy trading !
On 4 April 2014, Petronas has approved the final investment decision (FID) for the development of the Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC), to be located on 6,424 acres of land in Pengerang, Johor. The proposed development is anticipated to be bigger than the combined Petronas existing downstream complexes in Melaka, Terengganu, Pahang and Sarawak.
To recap, on Dec 2010, KNM has secured RM2.2bn EPCC contract from Peterborough Renewable Energy Limited (PREL) for UK Peterborough waste to energy project.
KNM and PREL will each holds 49% and 51% stake in Energy Park Investment Ltd (EPIL) respectively. KNM purchased additional 31% stake in EPIL from PREL on Jan 2012, bringing total controlling stake to 80% given the financial difficulties faces by the original shareholders.
This will provide recurring income for a concession period of 25 years. UK has decided to halve its greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2027 and to cut them by a total of 80% by 2050.
For this to happen, significant private-sector investment in new energy infrastructure such as biomass waste to energy project is needed. EnergyPark project is right fit into UK vision to deliver 15% of energy demand from renewable sources in 2020 (from 4% in 2012).
Financial Forecast Total latest orderbook book stand at approximately RM2bn (~1x of FY13 revenue). Historically, the company’s annual orderbook replenishment rate has averaged around RM2bn since 2012 even though RAPID has not commenced.
We have forecasted KNM’s revenue to grow by CAGR of 13% from FY13 to FY16 mainly due to potential contract win from RAPID.
Net profit is expected to grow at stronger pace with CAGR of 74% from FY13 to FY16 as EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 10% to 11.7% in the same period due to; i) lower financing cost; and ii) cost saving from the disposal of loss making Brazil business. Our key assumptions are shown in Figure 16.
Balance sheet is expected to improve further with net gearing to fall from 0.33x in FY13 to 0.16x in FY16 which provides strong financial muscles to bid for more contracts and undertake the EnergyPark Peterbough project.
our base case scenario assumes 12% market share on the total RM18bn potential RAPID contract for KNM.
By pegging at 16x P/E, we expect our bullish case target price (TP) to reach RM1.55 while worst case TP of RM1.18 per share still offer 31% upside from current price.
KNM is a turnaround story with earnings to expand at CAGR of 55% from 2014 to 2016.
We expect P/E to fall further to 9x in FY16.
Hence, we initiate the company with a target price of RM1.35 based on 16x FY15 P/E, premium to its peer of average target of 14-15x given its strong earnings growth prospect (CAGR of 55% from FY14-FY16.
KNM has reformed, refinanced, reorganised and is ready to grow. It has restructured its businesses and reduced OPEX by MYR20m- 30m p.a. from the disposal of its loss-making Brazil operations in Sep 2013 and downsizing its global workforce.
It has since nursed its balance sheet to a healthier position.
The refinancing of its short-term debt has resulted in interest savings of MYR13m p.a., while its recent private placement raised another MYR103m. Its net gearing is currently a more manageable 0.4x.
These events have helped KNM to rebuild its growth path and recoup MYR33m- 43m p.a., lowering its OPEX to MYR280m (-7%) p.a.
Looking ahead, we see two clear catalysts emerging.
Firstly, KNM is a direct proxy to RAPID.
With seven major tenders worth e.MYR60b in the pipeline, the addressable process equipment bid size is MYR18b (over a 4-year period).
Assuming a 20-25% win rate, KNM’s potential RAPID orders of MYR4b-5b (MYR1b p.a.) would improve its annual orderbook by 50% to MYR3b (4-5 years visibility).
Secondly, executing the Peterborough project in 3-years’ time would transform its current cyclical business model to one with a more recurring income base.
With an 18MW (Phase 1) waste-toenergy plant, KNM could generate MYR40m-MYR50m in net profit p.a. from FY17, based on a 10% IRR and 80% equity stake. Total capacity is 80MW.
yes. and full reports can easily be accessed in the price target details link. so no need to constantly cut n paste in this forum. insiders gossips or news however would be much appreciated
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
squirt
149 posts
Posted by squirt > 2014-07-08 15:04 | Report Abuse
Gen lee will dispose at 1.40 careful