this counter no doubt is the investment grade but if you are smart enough, you should track the sales & production of the HVAC equipments. The sales of HVAC should lead superlon sales by 3-6 months.
If you notice any changes in the operation activity, you must know what to do.
On Our Radar: SUPERLN • Re-entering position with a “Trading Buy” call on fair value of RM2.50, based on targeted FY19 PER of 13.0x. • The recent FY17 results have surpassed expectations, thanks to margin expansion as a result of effective cost savings that led by more efficient production methods. • Going forward, we expect growth to be driven by the production commencement of its new factory cum warehouse, and operations of its first overseas production plant in Vietnam in 1H19. These new developments are expected to provide the group additional 46% production capacity from the current 7,200 tonnes/year. • Established a formal dividend policy of 30% payout had provided dividend visibility.
My friend working in superln, he told me the next quarter may not as good as this quarter (july hasnt finished, so the final result not out yet). It is not rational for us to buy this price now as all peoples put high hope on new warehouse cum factory which operates in 2019 / 2020.
@ Teh KK : Superlon had been posting 8 consecutive quarters of increasing net profits and higher dividend yields. Plus, July quarter has not ended yet, how can your friend so confident to say the coming quarterly results may not be as good?
Teh Kieat Keoi My friend working in superln, he told me the next quarter may not as good as this quarter (july hasnt finished, so the final result not out yet). It is not rational for us to buy this price now as all peoples put high hope on new warehouse cum factory which operates in 2019 / 2020. 13/07/2017 11:02
For long term investor, current superlon share is definitely fair, but for short/ middle term investor, I think the share price almost fully valued. Due to the bad business environment of Malaysia cooling & heating industry. Anyway superlon is doing the best for the selling of Insulation pipes. With normal price and good quality, their insulations have the highest market share in Malaysia. But their copper tube considered ok only, its OEM product not produce by the company.
The net profits for FYE 2018 may reasonably be estimated to be around RM30m or EPS of 19sen solely due to the new warehouse in Klang. When the factory in Vietnam is completed in FYE 2019, the impact on EPS should be at least 30% upside, bringing annualised EPS post-Vietnam factory to be at 25sen. If the demand for its goods continues to expand, it is reasonable to estimate that Vietnam production should have scalability or may need another factory there if it proves more cost-efficient than those in Malaysia. As unit cost would shrink as production volume expands, we may see the EPS to grow to say 30sen a share in FYE 2020 or 2021. Perhaps the biggest wild card is the possibility of some of its products entering USA. It may seem remote and the process of obtaining licence may continue for many more years but if it happens in coming years, it will be huge. US market for its products should be what the shareholders are eyeing for in the mid- and long-term, amidst the ongoing production expansion.
It is likely the management will declare dividend in the range of 30% to 50% of its EPS to preserve cash for capex till FYE 2019. But once the capex needs taper off after that, if the management increase its dividend payout to 70 to 80%, the PE multiple should increase to at least 15 and still deliver a dividend yield of 5%. With an assumed 30sen EPS in FYE 2020 and 2021, the share price may trade at RM4.50. So, the upside is there but the wait is another 3 to 4 years. Many factors in the interim may still disrupt this scenario like weakening USD against RM, election jittery, global economic weakness. Any price weakness should be a good chance to accumulate for those who have faith in the management, products and industry it operates within. Those who sell to keep cash or for other opportunities should be able to do so happily, thanking the management for their work in the past 3 years in the process.
sense maker, appreciate yr comments and reasoning. Thanks. Bought this stock mid 2016 @ 2.50. Now taking a good hard look again and will slowly enter as and when there is weakness.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
maxmax
320 posts
Posted by maxmax > 2017-07-05 14:46 | Report Abuse
quick buy....directly ...crossover many lots