Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-20 09:10 | Report Abuse

Agree, abangadik :D

Posted by hero666 > 2017-03-20 10:41 | Report Abuse

This counter really surprise me so so much... not much vol but going up steadily and firm... support buying at lower price also low... dont understand at all ... doesnt make sense

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-20 13:35 | Report Abuse

will take a break and consolidate at 2.14-2.15 for now.. YTD 30% it is a great acheivement..

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-03-20 15:21 | Report Abuse

Tomypak has a relatively low free float, and that probably explained the low volume and price elasticity.

hero666 This counter really surprise me so so much... not much vol but going up steadily and firm... support buying at lower price also low... dont understand at all ... doesnt make sense

20/03/2017 10:41

Posted by Up_down > 2017-03-20 15:29 | Report Abuse

Tomypak share price so low as comparing with Daibochi. it really doesn't make sense. lol

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-20 15:31 | Report Abuse

Up_down.. I think one is a bit overvalue and one is definitely undervalue compare to its peer. If nothing is happening to both, I will continue to hold until the price is fair. lolz...

Posted by Up_down > 2017-03-20 15:39 | Report Abuse

abangadik. Daibochi is traded at high PER 27x whereas Tomypak price at 17x. It's still long way to go to catch up. We can only make money while Mr.Market are behaving irrationally. lol

Posted by Invest1188 > 2017-03-20 23:54 | Report Abuse

Scgm and tomypak are like brothers when doing business, they are inter related and there is synergy

Posted by hero666 > 2017-03-21 14:52 | Report Abuse

abang adik slow moving......damn regret buy in 2.5.... now stuck and jam.

Posted by fyda74 > 2017-03-21 15:37 | Report Abuse

I believe it should be price range from RM 2.50 - RM 3.00 end of 2017, providing the expansion plan run smoothly :)

Posted by vinvestor > 2017-03-21 15:47 | Report Abuse

Will Tomypak reach RM3.00 to match Daibochi's PE of 27x ?

Posted by fyda74 > 2017-03-21 15:52 | Report Abuse

Once EPS increase, definitely it can match Daiboci or even higher :) The key factor now is how management digest "double production capacity".

Posted by fyda74 > 2017-03-21 15:52 | Report Abuse

I won't concern much about PE. EPS is always my main concern :)

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-21 15:52 | Report Abuse

it makes plenty of sense at this range 2.10-2.15 until the next QR :D...you may sell to me anything below this price..

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-21 16:25 | Report Abuse

I will foreseen EPS for 2017 is around 0.25. Assume 80% of double production capacity and 9% profit margin. Let see it again end of the year.

Posted by R40s > 2017-03-21 23:50 | Report Abuse

I have a similar optimistic view as PC_FA, Tomypak's new factory should be operational by now, assuming initially the new factory only runs at 50% capacity (conservative assumption) due to teething issues, training of new operators, and Marketing department's efforts to get new customers and more orders, etc... Together with the existing factory that has being running full capacity, the total productions of both factory should be 150%...

That means in the coming Q's results till this year-end, we should be able to see a big 50% jump in turnover and profits, as well as higher profit margins due to newer and more advanced technology of the new factory's machinery, equipment and better process.

Looking at last Q (Q4-2016) results, the EPS 3.84 sen is based on the enlarged share base (net profit rm6.3M at profit margin at 12.3%), annualized EPS 15.36 sen, if Tomypak can increase this by 50%, it would be EPS 23 sen. If the price can hit rm3.00, the PE Ratio is only 13, still very cheap when compared to it's peers...

So, Tomypak has big potential for mid to longer term investment.
.

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-22 06:53 | Report Abuse

Hopefully today can have mega sales for Tomypak. Can't wait for it.

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-03-22 09:31 | Report Abuse

Book value per share: Daibochi - 0.6948, Tomypak - 1.15
Share price (observed): Daibochi - 2.47, Tomypak - 2.08

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-22 12:54 | Report Abuse

ok..still holding 2.10 range.. :D..Fund Manager need to make sure it holds up here lolz..

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-22 13:13 | Report Abuse

So far only "CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd." hold Tomypak share. Hope that can more fund invest at Tomypak :P

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-22 13:16 | Report Abuse

Hahaha..Seems to have plenty mid-longterm chip in Tomypak..

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-22 13:19 | Report Abuse

I plan to hold Tomypak till 2018 at least :)

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-22 13:21 | Report Abuse

every quarter dividend..growth is there, what's more to ask for.. :D

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-22 13:23 | Report Abuse

I think fund manager will only ENTER once they see the growth of Tomypak :D Increase of EPS is the main key factor now. Once eps increase, dividend increase, share price increase :P

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-22 13:26 | Report Abuse

Lol ...

"CIMB Research said it maintained its EPS forecasts and target price, which is at a 40% discount to Daibochi’s 2017 13 times target, as it remains unconvinced about Tomypak’s rapid earnings recovery in FY16. "
Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/19/tomypak-skids-early-thursday-cimb-research-keeps-reduce-call/#JFWC0IIjSK7WSh2T.99

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-22 13:28 | Report Abuse

lolz..it also means that..you don't buy first..we will sapu then sell to you when the recovery show up..lolz..

Posted by Up_down > 2017-03-22 14:28 | Report Abuse

Abangadik. How to make more money when our decision is heavily influenced by those IB. Lol. How to beat their returns? It's good to learn more information provided in their articles or research reports.

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-03-22 14:39 | Report Abuse

Even if market crash? :)

pc_FA I plan to hold Tomypak till 2018 at least :)

22/03/2017 13:19

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-22 14:52 | Report Abuse

@ozzie75, tomypak's business should be recession-proof :P It still their business revenue, eps, etc :D

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-22 14:54 | Report Abuse

I think those IB no really research deep about Tomypak :) Good for us anyway.

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-03-22 15:01 | Report Abuse

This is what I like about their business: indirectly tied to tummies. Human beings still need to live on food at the end of the day.

Researches issued by IB are not absolute. :)

pc_FA @ozzie75, tomypak's business should be recession-proof :P It still their business revenue, eps, etc :D

22/03/2017 14:52

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-22 15:10 | Report Abuse

ozzie75, their expansion plan is at 2017, 2018 and 2021. I think its sales will stable again at 2018. We can join back the party again at 2021 :P

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-22 15:48 | Report Abuse

Tomypak fund raising around RM RM54,734,000 through right issue. However, management only spend RM 37,434,000 for Phase 1 expansion. They have extra RM 17,300,000 for future business expansion. Another credit should reward to good management :)

Posted by R40s > 2017-03-23 00:02 | Report Abuse

From the RI prospectus dated Dec.1.2015, the new factory costs is estimated at Rm82.2M, including construction costs for the new factory building, purchase of new machineries and equipment, initial working capital to procure raw materials, labour costs and overheads, etc. So the RI proceeds less RI Exercise expenses of Rm54.1M is only 66% of the total costs required, the remaining 34% costs shall come from internal funds and bank borrowings if required.

Posted by R40s > 2017-03-23 00:31 | Report Abuse

According to the Company's expansion plan, there will be 3 phases, to be done by 2017, 2018 and 2021. This newly built factory is Phase-1, with new floor area of 265,300 sq.ft (current factory is 150,000 sq.ft) has increased the total floor area to about 177%.

This nearly doubled floor area should be able to accommodate new production lines to double the capacity when required (the Company has indicated the new capacity at 35,000 tons after Phase-1 expansion versus 17,500 tons capacity in 2014). Initially the new factory has only 1 production line to increase total capacity by 30%, from 19,200 tons to 24,960 tons. This is a very practical and realistic approach, as the 100% increase would take much more time to fill up compared to 30%, so that there would be minimum idling of machineries and workforce. The Company management team is doing a very good planning job and careful execution on the expansions.

Posted by hero666 > 2017-03-23 10:42 | Report Abuse

meaning to say the expansion plan and marginal increase of production are tight with together but doesnt reflect in share pricing so soon right?

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-23 10:50 | Report Abuse

@hero666, I believe it still rely on how the sales. Anyway I believe management able to secure more customer. Worst case will be still maintain revenue but increase profit margin :)

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-03-23 11:12 | Report Abuse

The order log is equally, if not, more important. :)

@R40s, do you have any idea regarding the expansion plan?
Below is what I understand:
2017 produces 35,000 metric tons;
2018 produces 54,000 metric tons;
2019 produces 54,000 metric tons;
2020 produces 54,000 metric tons;
2021 produces 73,000 metric tons;
***Assume 100% fully utilized.

Thanks

Posted by FX Lee > 2017-03-23 16:10 | Report Abuse

like this mah HOSEH

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-23 18:48 | Report Abuse

2.10 is strong as I predicted..Will buy more when it stabilize further..full confident with this company..

Posted by W16Y > 2017-03-23 19:32 | Report Abuse

Nestle Global Procurement Centre already Based in Shah Alam as announced by The Star last December. Hence I believe the Sales going to increase once new production line start

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-23 19:36 | Report Abuse

yes W16Y...I am targeting all the supplier for Nestle...and the regional hub for e-commerce will increase the sales for all of the local consumer products.

Posted by W16Y > 2017-03-23 22:20 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/12/05/nestle-remains-optimistic-on-msia/

Posted by R40s > 2017-03-23 22:47 | Report Abuse

Hi pc_FA, About the balance of rm17.3M funds from the RI, the "Cut-off" date of the Q4/16 report was 31.Dec.2016, but the new factory completion was delayed till Jan.2017 due to rainy season (Johor experienced flood), so we can't really know how much money spent until the next Q report. But yes, most of the payments for the building and machineries should have been disbursed, so there may be some balance funds left for adding extra production lines later when new orders can quickly fill up the new production capacity.

Posted by R40s > 2017-03-24 00:24 | Report Abuse

About the new capacities after Phase-1,2,3 expansions, here is my take after reading up and research on Tomypak:

After Mr. Lim Hun Swee (LHS) took over the MD post in January.2015, he set an big Objective: to overtake Daibochi after 3 years. This year 2017 is the 3rd year, so he should meet this objective by Jan.2018. Daibochi's revenue last year was rm371M vs Tomypak's rm211M, or 76% higher, to beat this figure, Tomypak have to double their current production capacity by end of the year 2017.

Base ref. Capacity = 17,500mt, this was the existing Tampoi factory's capacity in 2015, running at 80% utilizations (ie, 14,000mt actual productions), LHS used this figure as benchmark for their expansion plans.
Hence,
Double the Capacity = 35,000mt, and Triple the Capacity = 52,500mt

In Oct.2014 they bought 10.5 acres of land in Senai to build a new factory for 35,000mt capacity when fully completed by 2021, so that the total combined capacity will reach 52,500mt. This will be done in 3 phases. Compare to existing Tampoi factory on a 4-acre land, the new 10.5-acre land surely can accommodate the new factory for 35,000mt capacity.

Phase-1: To be completed by 2017, now the factory building is built, and 1-production line is running, giving 24,960mt total capacity (existing Tampoi factory was added with a new production line to total of 7 lines, capacity has increased to 19,200mt running at 70% utilization, or 13,440mt). That means the new production machineries has about 5,800mt capacity per line.

Phase-2: To be completed by 2018, by adding 2 more production lines, so that the new factory's capacity will be 3x5800 = 17,400mt.

Phase-3: To be completed by 2019, by adding 3 more production lines, so that eventually the new factory will have 6-lines with 35,000mt capacity.

Together with Tampoi factory, the combined production capacity will be 54,000mt.

Regarding the objective to beat Daibochi's revenue by end of this year, it appears to be on-track, as last year's Tomypak revenue of rm211M was achieved by the 13,440mt actual production, and the Company expects the new capacity of 24,960mt will have 80% utilization, to produce 19,970mt, or 149% higher, together with the new machineries of more advanced technology, with higher efficiency, less wastage, better products, etc., Tomypak may catch up with Daibochi soon if not yet dislodge them from the top position... :-)

Posted by R40s > 2017-03-24 00:59 | Report Abuse

Sorry, Phase-3: To be completed by 2021, or 5-years period...

The bottleneck of building a new factory is usually land acquisition process and building construction works, which normally take about 2 years or more until CF is issued by the local authority... Whereas adding new production lines normally only take just a few months. So it shows that Tomypak's management is prudent and cautiously optimistic by installing only 1-line initially, and then add more lines (may be add 1-line per year from 2017 to 2021...?) as customers orders increase gradually.

Also, take note that the new line added in 2015 inside the existing factory is the same type of latest technology machineries, that means the operators have already been trained and familiarized with the new machineries in the new factory, this is a brilliant decision taken by the Company to minimize the teething issues and operators training period, and the new factory can quickly get up to speed.

The Q4/16 report said the last Q did not benefit from the new factory, their contributions should be in the coming Q results, so we can expect a much better Q results in May... :-)

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-24 01:18 | Report Abuse

Hahaha.. welcome and I think this info was shared a few times already.. I am sure those on board now had put their chips around 1.6x-1.7x... If you didnt know this expansion plan, please read it and be a investor because the share might stay sideways for awhile..

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-24 10:18 | Report Abuse

Hi R40s, thanks a lot for your sharing :)
For 35,000 metric tons, it should be the max production (100% production capacity) in 2017.
16,000 metric tons from existing 7 production line at old factory (Tampoi);
19,000 metric tons from advance metalizing machine at new factory (Senai);

Posted by abangadik > 2017-03-24 10:19 | Report Abuse

pc_FA,

you really know this company in and out..you are not working there? lolz...

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-03-24 10:21 | Report Abuse

it was 12,850 metric tonnes (80% of 16,000 metric tons) in 2015 compared to 13,280 metric tonnes in 2014.