This company always buying assets but share price cannot smell above rm1. Perhaps its about time it stop these expansions and use the profits to reward shareholders while it still can. I thought the future for non renewable energy is getting bleaker slowly but surely by the year and that explains why some of the super giants in the oil industry are selling their fields?
I am jojobaa, the person who predicted that Armada will make a big time 4q profit in 2020. I was right.
Now I am here to also predict that Hibiscus will also make a big time quarterly profit for the ending march quarter to be reported in May.
Why? Very simple. If we want to simplify things we can reasonably expect Hibiscus to report a huge improvement over its 2Q2021 profit which was reported a week ago.
We first make an assumption that every quarter, all else equal, say Hibiscus makes 10 mil net profit, with 1 million barrels of oil sold. We also note the disclosure that the locked in oil price is circa USD40 which was agreed during Covid with Trafigura.
Now based on such assumptions, the full yearly profit of Hibiscus is very easily calculateable as follows:
3.2 million production per year
Oil price of A) 55 USD B) 62.5 USD C) 70USD
Based on 3.2 million production per year, and based on the USD oil price, Hibiscus's net profit is implied to be: 32 million PAT
Now we assume that Hibuscus sells the remaining 3.2 million at a range of USD55 to 70, which is the underlying oil price now. The incremental net profit shall be:
3.2 million x USD 15 (differential of oil price now and then)*0.615 (profit after tax rate)*4 (exchange rate) = RM118 million
and
3.2 million x USD 30*0.615 (profit after tax rate)*4 (exchange rate) = RM236 million
This brings a incremental net profit after tax of between RM118 million to RM236 million
To sum up, if you think Hibiscus can sell its 3.2 million barrels of oil at USD55 per barrel, a fair assumption is that Hibiscus's PAT shall be RM118 million + 32 million = RM150 million
If you think Hibiscus can sell its 3.2 million barrels of oil at USD70 per barrel, a fair assumption is that Hibiscus's PAT shall be RM236 million + RM32 million = RM278 million.
According to Hibiscus's latest quarterly report, the locked in oil price with Trafigura in Q2 has been fulfilled and one can assume that Hibiscus will lock in significantly higher price for its cargoes moving forward. Hibiscus should also be the stock which has the highest postive relation with oil prices moving on an uptrend.
“The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” - Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister
Boom here n there in persian gulf .. biden party happy to see it.. so oil price wil stable above usd 65 . Hibiscus said above Usd60 oledi guarantee profit multi million
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
KuChoy
33 posts
Posted by KuChoy > 2021-05-06 16:14 | Report Abuse
Little KuChoy feels panic, why drop?