Posted by sephiroth > 2014-08-06 09:35 | Report Abuse

wahhh so fast green already meh, gonna break 80 soon

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-08-06 11:06 | Report Abuse

kikikikkiki 78.5 liau

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-08-06 11:06 | Report Abuse

gear 2 coming

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-06 11:55 | Report Abuse

wow 0.805, next week 0.95 ??

Posted by tshwong > 2014-08-06 12:33 | Report Abuse

Don't misleading the retail investors. Disposing from EPF & LTH were old time news already. Selling force had stopped during end of July. Now, pending for good news, coming very soon. Will break 1 in this month.

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-06 12:43 | Report Abuse

tshwong thks for updates...

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2014-08-06 13:21 | Report Abuse

anyone suggest, this counter still can play contra?

Posted by chang21 > 2014-08-06 13:29 | Report Abuse

No contra pls ........ burn fingers ...... those with holding power will see an appreciation to more than Rm1 soon .......my TP is Rm1.20 by year end. You will see some buying momentum on the mother share soon enough..........

Posted by tshwong > 2014-08-06 14:24 | Report Abuse

@fortunebullz, you left too early. You jump here and there, making 'quick'bucks, but not big bucks.

Posted by lee9fold > 2014-08-06 14:30 | Report Abuse

tshwong...nice 1 :D

Posted by chang21 > 2014-08-06 16:15 | Report Abuse

kksk123 you are right on the dot ....... you must have good resources to know what is going to happen.

Posted by kksk123 > 2014-08-06 16:34 | Report Abuse

Im very confident with the future growth of BIMB, and its NPL control is one of the best in Malaysia.

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-08-06 16:52 | Report Abuse

volume 6 digit liau, resume bull big time tomorrow

Posted by nikeblood > 2014-08-06 18:43 | Report Abuse

timetosell want to collect weak hand players share lol

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-06 19:48 | Report Abuse

sori but mother 2.4?? BIMB is 4.40 this morning. Can timetosell elaborate.....

Posted by rlch > 2014-08-06 21:49 | Report Abuse

Stupid people buy this warrant. You don't get any dividend paying 77.5sen.

Posted by rlch > 2014-08-06 21:51 | Report Abuse

Exercise Price:

MYR 4.72

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-08-06 21:59 | Report Abuse

9 yrs expiry meaning current price represent the price of mother share in 2023, 4.72+0.775 excessive ? I am so glad to be stupid buying this warrant at 0.575/0.58/0.585/0.59

Posted by Horsefield > 2014-08-06 22:32 | Report Abuse

What is the value of BIMB-WA?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/49210.jsp

please refer the above warrant pricing by using Scholes & Black model (Nobel price winner). It was written by kcchongnz about 5 months ago.

"Theoretically", warrant price can be determined by 1) underlying mother price 2)exercise price 3)time to expiry 4)interest rate (FD rate) 5) dividend & 6) implied volatility. Pls refer the link for detailed explanation.

Let study the hot stock KNM & its warrant KNM-WA.
Based on today closing price RM 1.04, the warrant is trading at RM 0.385. With below input, we can compute the implied volatility of KNM-WA. In this case, the implied volatility is 44%.

KNM-WA at RM 0.385
1) Underlying Price = RM 1.04
2) Exercise Price = RM 1.0
3) Days till Expiry = 1197 (Today till 15-Nov-2017)
4) Interest Rate = 4.0% (FD rate)
5) Dividend Yield = 0%
6) Implied Volatility = 44%

So what is the implied volatility of BIMB-WA at RM 0.775?
1) Underlying Price = RM 4.39
2) Exercise Price = RM 4.72
3) Days till Expiry = 3407 (Today till 4-Dec-2023)
4) Interest Rate = 4.0% (FD rate)
5) Dividend Yield = 1.4%
6) Implied Volatility = 9.3%

BIMB-WA is currently trading at 9.3% only compare Its historical volatility of 29.5% (see above kcchongnz blog). And, it is still far lower than KNM-WA volatility of 44%.

So what is "YOUR" implied volatility?
Implied volatility Theoretical Price (RM)
9.30% 0.775
15% 0.99
20% 1.19
25% 1.39
30% 1.58
35% 1.77
40% 1.95


You can run calculation yourself in following link:
http://www.option-price.com/

Posted by tshwong > 2014-08-06 23:08 | Report Abuse

@horsefield, good write-up. Only the pro are capable to invest in warrant because it required high level of financial knowledge. One must at least capable to understand the time value, option pricing method plus the future business prospect for the company.

Posted by Horsefield > 2014-08-06 23:50 | Report Abuse

Let see the warrant value from another angle.

Assume BIMB will grow (and hence its price) at CAGR of 10% from 2014 to 2023. The underlying BIMB price will grow from current RM 4.39 to RM 10.35 at 2023. The warrant BIMB-WA will worth RM 5.63 (RM 10.35 - RM 4.72) at 2023.

With discount rate of 20%, the present value of the warrant is RM 1.09 [ 5.63 / (1.2)^9 ].

Is the CAGR at 10% for the next 9 years sustainable? Is growth assumption is conservative?
If BIMB grow at CAGR of 1% extra to 11%, the BIMB-WA would worth RM 1.26.

In your opinion, what is BIMB "growth rate" in future 9 year?

CAGR PV of WA
5% 0.41
10% 1.09
15% 2.08
20% 3.48

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-07 00:18 | Report Abuse

Horsefield,
Are you heavily invested in BIMB-WA and has the intention to influence particularly those i3 investors with perceptions of "higher implied volatility" to buy the warrants off you at much higher prices from your buy in price?

The total no of BIMB WA issued is 426,815,728 units. Total no of issued shares is 1,493,505,934 units. Ratio of warrants to issued shares is 1 warrant to every 3.5 mother shares. So the EPS of BIMB will be
- 0.77 EPS if 100% warrants are converted.
- 0.875 EPS if 50% warrants are converted
- 1.0 EPS if no warrants are converted.

Warrant strike price is RM 4.72.

Please advise what is your forecast EPS for BIMB for year financial year ending 2014, 2015 and 2016 and do advise whether the warrants are in or out of money based on your forecast EPS assuming 100%, 50% or zero percent warrants conversion in 2014, 2015, 2016? Of course the implicit understanding is that the market price will be reasonably attractive for warrants conversion to mother share. I leave it to you to assume the PE multiple.

Posted by NOBY > 2014-08-07 00:25 | Report Abuse

sunztzhe, I m not sure why you are talking about warrant conversion scenarios and how that relates to valuing the warrant. Maybe you can explain.

Posted by Horsefield > 2014-08-07 00:34 | Report Abuse

sunztzhe,
Actually, I have negligible holdings in the warrant, hence I have no (or little ^^) intention to push the warrant price.

I have provide the warrant value prospect from 2 different point of view; eg: time value of warrant & growth prospect of underlying BIMB.
Anyway, the value (or price?) of the warrant is always determined by buyer & seller (demand & supply) and hence their view on the warrant.

For the dilution of EPS due to exercise of warrant, bear in mind that once the warrant is exercise, the underlying BIMB will receive RM 4.72 cash per warrant. It can use the cash to generate higher return (for business with high ROE, etc) to boast the EPS,

EPS forecast? If 10% growth assumed, what is the warrant value? Based on my previous post, you can do your own forecast, can work out what should be the warrant value.

Happy investing

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-08-07 00:56 | Report Abuse

:)

Posted by Arab > 2014-08-07 02:24 | Report Abuse

Plenty thanks, Horsefield...New learning to many.. keep doing and definitely you will be rewarded accordingly for helping the readers. well-done.. and keep teaching. Never mine, sure there will be some "Bodoh Sombong" or idiot would ..............of your good gesture.
Anyway,,, everyone is right, because it is free to comment anything in the world without boundary. Actually the more we learn the more stupid we are, then only we realize that, there are still plenty we do not know.

Posted by SS661M > 2014-08-07 03:39 | Report Abuse

Horsefield. Good sharing especially the option calculator. May I ask how to calculate the historical volatility of underlying share? How to relate historical volatility of underlying share to implied volatility of warrant? Thanks.

Posted by rlch > 2014-08-07 03:42 | Report Abuse

Why EPF and Tabung Haji keep disposing if BIMB EPS "grow at CAGR 10%" as someone claim. Beware a lot conman in i3.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/5258.jsp

Posted by SS661M > 2014-08-07 03:42 | Report Abuse

By the way. We r in the same group for your infor. I just show up in I3 with different name : )

Posted by SS661M > 2014-08-07 03:46 | Report Abuse

If keep buying not selling how to realize gain? If not selling how to recycle cash? : )

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-07 09:17 | Report Abuse

this morning shining sun, green plants up...with good info, now to sow or reap....both can

Posted by chang21 > 2014-08-07 10:08 | Report Abuse

tshwong ......... what if the mother goes to Rm7.00 by next year ......... when there are good news announcement within this period. What price would you reckon the WA fair value to be? I am also one of the stupid guy who holds and continue to accumulate the WA ..... hahaha . Thanks.

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-07 10:14 | Report Abuse

If BIMB can reach 5.50 by this year end, happy....

Posted by tshwong > 2014-08-07 11:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Hong Hero > 2014-08-07 12:31 | Report Abuse

why suddenly so crowded here when we "stupid" people accumulate when it was below 60 cents?

"smart" people only following money trait when we the "stupid" people looked for gold mine and dig and wait.

Posted by chang21 > 2014-08-07 12:40 | Report Abuse

tshwong .....tqvm for your valuation, from what so said "rumuors" Bimb will touch Rm7.00 next year. Lets wait for any "Happenings" soon.

Posted by tshwong > 2014-08-07 12:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-07 18:17 | Report Abuse

aha...habis steam.....ini kes stupid vs smart

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-08 09:09 | Report Abuse

Latest news, ASB buy into BIMB (BURSA web). If they expect 20% revenue from this counter, then BIMB expect to be between RM5.20 - 5.55 by year end... so BIMB-w should be riding too....just intuition....

Posted by chang21 > 2014-08-08 09:12 | Report Abuse

asoh ....... from your latest news I believe "Happening" coming soon .......... by this month????

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-08 10:39 | Report Abuse

immediate and on Friday...cabut lari... Obama nak perang..."Asian shares tumbled on Friday as investors sought out safe-haven assets on growing fears that conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East could sap global growth, extending losses after U.S. President Obama said he had authorized air strikes in Iraq"

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-08 11:47 | Report Abuse

President Obama's authorization of airstrikes in Iraq means global stock prices will correct further. Today is just the beginning. If you still have good margins, SELL!!!

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-08 12:46 | Report Abuse

fortunebullz, There is always unintended consequence. The airstrikes though short term may drag on much longer than expected!!

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-08 12:49 | Report Abuse

It had happened before countless times in history .. history repeats itself!!

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-08 12:52 | Report Abuse

Fortunebullz, I went in around 59 to 63 cents and cut out around 78 to 80 cents as it is way out of money!

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-08 12:55 | Report Abuse

The correction just started today..do u think it will be a one day affair? Global stock market is already at all time high with the exception of China. If market corrects further, warrants will go down much more relative to mother stock as it is way out of money!!

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-08 14:43 | Report Abuse

to me its around 65- 69 the lowest unless the bomb impact is terrible

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-08 16:25 | Report Abuse

"The U.S. military said it completed a delivery of meals and water to thousands of members of a religious minority who fled the town of Sinjar and are trapped in nearby mountains " so far no bombs.....Middle East News .

Posted by asoh > 2014-08-08 16:26 | Report Abuse

"As commander in chief, I will not allow the United States to be dragged into fighting another war in Iraq ," Obama said.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-08-08 20:55 | Report Abuse

fortunebullz, When it is way out of money around 80 cents, one should be selling like crazy!! When it is not so way out of money like this afternoon, maybe one should be buying a little bit...however if the bombs really start dropping and tension escalates, then one ought to be greedy when everyone is panicking!!!