Bplant have the potential, dutaland purchase is a massive piece, once yield comes, there is no stopping bplant. The short term focus will be to earn as much as they can in this round of CPO rally and to payoff loans, with lower interest cost... perhaps if they can ink a 100-200mil worth of Penang land sales would be good...
Bplant per hectares yield is lower than KLK, IOI and Gplant.. It will go back to pervious peak only if the fruit yield per hectares improved. I expect they will take loooong time or may not even happened. However i felt 70/80sen will be easily achieved.
For those serious mature sensible minded long term investors among y'all ... Do consider TopGlove as another egg in your basket, another arrow in your quiver, another string to your bow
Bonus issues: 2002 3:10 ==> 2,600 units 2003 2:5 ==> 3,640 units 2005 1:1 ==> 7,280 units 2007 2:5 ==> 10,192 units 2010 1:1 ==> 20,384 units 2016 1:1 ==> 40,768 units 2018 1:1 ==> 81,536 units 2020 2:1 ==> 244,608 units
Today 244,608 units x RM8.70/unit = RM2,128,089
Capital Appreciation = From RM5,400 to RM2,128,089 in just 19 years
This is clear solid undoubtable undeniable evidence of the awesome benefit by way of exponential growth that you get from investing long term in TopGlove
Anyways, this is not a call for buy or sell, but just sharing of some inspirational motivational confidence-building information.
Top Glove before pandemic, Quarterly profit after tax is just 110m+. After Pandemic, very likely PAT will be lower than Pre Covid level cause demand for glove will slow down, over stocking and too many production lines. But, let assume Top Glove can still play the magic and can make 227% times higher that pre covid level. Then quarterly profit Post cover will be 2.27x110m = 250m. 1 year will be RM 1bn. Sounds a lot?
When Profit grow is slowly down, Valuation also drop and PE of 20 is consider highly expensive. Let's assume Top Glove still can get PE 20. Then, market capitalisation will RM 1bn x 20 = RM20 bn. At current Top Glove price at RM6.90. The market capitalisation is RM56.5bn. That means , the potential drop is RM36.5bn or drop 64.6%. The potential optimistic price of Top Glove Post Covid will be RM2.44. So, Think twice or even 20 times before you invest in Top Glove now
There are no magic, after covid 19 ended, revenue for TG will drop drastically BUT they have HUGE babies to handle. So many CAPEX have been spent to increase the capacity, depreciation charge will comes with no sufficient income to cover. With lack of profit outlook, impairment will follow.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
KAQ4468
21,497 posts
Posted by KAQ4468 > 2020-12-08 09:29 | Report Abuse
RM1. 20
Janji potong ayam.. Tarak tipu punya