from QR pg 9 item A7 (i) first 3 item, interest at least 36m, prinsipal payment at least 48.2m9 (total borrowing 627m divide by 13 years : 20yrs-7 yrs in operation) the higher usd higher finance cost
total operating cost per barrel is high, previously calculated usd$55pb could be underestimated, base on 1H2018, operating loss is rm1.7m it mean if the realised selling price is $72.55 (take hibi north sabah ASP, as somebody claim Reach quality similar or better than north sabah) so with 2900bpd and selling price $72.55pb still run into operating lost rm1.7m(page 1 QR)
extract tax, export tax, export duty tax etc is 33% of Revenue, it percentage can only go higher if Brent go higher, which cannot mitigate by bigger scale of production
as CAPEX remain high until year 2023 (commitment, page 10) depreciation cost will go higher
even with current high Brent price, and 12000bpd on year 2020, HLG forecast earning 40m (not yet take Capex and financial cost into consideration)
12000bpd is with assumption CPF completed in 3Q18 (have been delay from 1Q19), and construction work of CPF only will be resume subject to funding avaialbility, part of $100m Reach is looking to raise (HLG report)
even with current high Brent price, and 12000bpd on year 2020, HLG forecast earning 40m (not yet take Capex and financial cost into consideration) shall read as
...(earning befare take CAPEX and borrowing prinsipal payment into consideration)
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
derrickinvestor
9,082 posts
Posted by derrickinvestor > 2017-06-22 11:20 |
Post removed.Why?