been following this stock since IPO, company is not bad, NTA about .56 cents and PE is low. but construction sector is a waste of time. unless really got 500m project then i would buy anything below .30 cents, cause thats the IPO price
Jayjay123 2b project ofcourse just a troll....lmao who would even belief it.
Very obvious u know sth..don't pretend bodoh..haha..it's ok..I understand.. as long as duit kutip, u r doing good deeds and will b remembered as hero..
nasilemaktelur market is shit. sold mine at .265. willing to buy back higher if project is real. will wait for announcement first to be safe
Bro, you think you can get at .265 when project is announced? Just look at the buy q. it's very thick from .24 to .26. And such volume has not always been the case..only very very recently.
Would like to put things in perspective here. Consider the following "facts" and their implications:
1) Orderbook is around RM500m. - Nadi should be able to sustain its current revenue level of RM200+m for the next 2 years and RM20+m profits.
2) Tenderbook is around RM1.4b (i think according to Rakuten). - Consistent with the rumours. But let's ignore the RM2.0b figure.
3) Rumors of contract award (presumably it is construction), with value ranging from RM500m to RM2.0b (i3, KLSE , "etc"). - Consistent with the tenderbook.
4) Since its IPO, its all time low P/E is 4.89x (1H2019) whereas its all time high P/E is 8.86x (22 June 2020) based on closing prices. - Consider the midpoint PE of 6.9x, which I think is somewhat conservative. Recent multiples have been higher.
There are 3 reasonable scenarios, a contract award at RM500m, RM1.0b and RM1.5b. Let's assume that this contract will be recognised over 3 years. Also assume that the net margin is only 5%, which i think it's on the low side.
What valuation will that result in?
Additional profit from "new" contract ranges from RM8.3m - RM25m RM500m x 5% / 3 years = RM8.3m per year for the next 3 years RM1.0b x 5% / 3 years = RM16.6m per year for the next 3 years RM1.5b x 5% / 3 years = RM25.0m per year for the next 3 years
Profit from existing orderbook. I took an average of FY18 and FY19 PAT, so let say around RM20m.
So we are looking at future annual profit between RM28.3m and RM45.0m.
At 6.9x PE, the market cap should be between RM195m and RM310m, which translates to 25.5s and 40.5s per share.
Well, I am an existing investor. Everything that I have quoted so far is publicly available. But not all are verified...so yeah. buy or sell, your call. Only in June do you see the volume spiked...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jayjay123
633 posts
Posted by Jayjay123 > 2020-06-12 16:45 | Report Abuse
Just buy lah, buy on rumours sell on news. Gogogo 2b project soon