I made call buy for TM when it broke longterm downtrend channel at 3.60. TM now enjoying bull run..any retracement is opportunity to buy. I believe it will go to rm4.30-4.50 in short term..before goes sideway. But eventually I believed TM will go above rm5 by end of the year.
Sorry in wrong thread. I just hope he will not do like what he did dor Greatech..sold too early, then calls for Sell.
We're in the early stages of bull market. I strongly believe things will get better and better.
End-to-end automation specialist with exposure to solar PV industry.
Key existing client is one of the most prominent thin-film solar panel producers with ~5% global market share currently. Recent product transition narrowed efficiency gap with crystalline players and could spark market share gains.
Capacity expansion by existing and new clients will allow GTT to improve operational efficiencies and profitability.
EPS growth hinges on capex cycle of EMS/semiconductor/ PV players and R&D success for clients’ further automation.
Fair Value RM 1.08
For those that want to join the train ride, better wait in the next station. After this the train will cruise above 170km/h
Initiate with BUY and MYR1.08 TP Tagged at 15.0x FY19E P/E, we derive a TP of MYR1.08. Our P/E target represents a ~20% discount to the average valuation of 18.5x to Malaysian automation equipment player currently. At 15.0x, it also represents a 10% discount to our average peg of 16.8x for tech hardware players within our coverage (including OSATs, EMS players). The discount is attributed to GTT’s listing on the ACE Market and its customer-concentration risks.
Against local players, the most comparable custom automation equipment player with high customer concentration risk would be Pentamaster Corporation (PENT MK, Not-Rated); up to ~50-60% of Pentamaster’s revenue comes from a single Austrian-based sensor company which is mostly exposed to the smartphone segment. Trading at 16.3x CY19 P/E for 27% FY18-20 earnings CAGR based on consensus projection, Pentamaster is rated BUY with an average TP of MYR5.12 by two brokers based on a P/E pegs of 20.2x/17.7x CY19/CY20.
Last time sumatech was chased to 50 sen. Calvin warned. Sorchai laughed at Calvin and chased sumatech to 70 sen At 70 sen they laughed very loud at Calvin but didn't watch their feet
Then Sumatech crashed and crashed and crashed to finally?
Just imagine will be cruising at 170km/h on Mabel High Speed Rail on the ECRL Corridors listening to this beautiful music, drinking cocktails and still can afford eating lobsters while enjoying the beautiful landscapes of the enchanting South China Sea...
Keep the forum room alive for the purpose of attracting more new investors. Greatec is now our shared joint business endeavour. We have to take good care of it, to make it grow & prosper.
We have to accept the fact that this company is not everyone's cup of tea. Let them move on.
For those that has managed to get on the train, let's give our best shot to support our local boys to make it internationally.
Over last 5 trading days, the cumulative weighted average traded price is 82.65, with cumulative traded volume of 534.64 million units.
The highest price was 101 (阳), and lowest price was 63.5 (阴) , therefore Fibonacci 61.8% retracement support is as follow ;
(101-63.5)x 0.618+63.5=86.68=87 ,
And we are anticipating it will retrace to 87/88 by the time When cumulative weighted average traded price value is rising to match the value of the support point in order to complete the #Cause/#Effect cycle... We just wait and see
#Note : The above analysis is #purely for educational purposes only.
Desperche knew the price will not sustain yet still encourage everyone to buy so that he can get maximum gain and run away.pity those trapped at high price.
A price to pay for listening to scammers like despercheeeee
Exposure to thriving solar photovoltaic (PV) industry
Most listed tech hardware names in Malaysia are exposed to the smart devices, a segment which is going through a down cycle amid the global transition to 5G networks. GTT’s recent listing offers refreshing exposure to the PV industry and we see it as a proxy for First Solar’s growth potential. Global PV installed capacity grew at a CAGR of 30% to 403GW in 2013-2017. It is expected to hit 1.3TW by 2023 by SolarPower Europe
There are two main technologies in solar manufacturing: crystalline and thin films. Crystalline solar modules dominate the industry with a 90% share. GTT’s key customer, First Solar, produces cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar panels, the most predominant thin film with about a 5% share of worldwide PV production. First Solar’s cell-lab efficiency has leapfrogged in recent years following its introduction of Series 6 products in 2017 with the help of GTT’s automation. It has more automation and upgrading plans lined up for the next three years, which we believe will provide revenue visibility for GTT.
GTT is a Shariah-compliant stock listed on the ACE Market of Bursa Malaysia. We believe a scarcity premium for GTT’s exposure and highprofile clientele will underpin interest in the stock. Also, the growth of GTT’s customers may provide future re-rating catalysts, including Panasonic’s (6752 JP, Not Rated) existing/new electric vehicle (EV) batteries for a US EV brand/Toyota in the near future.
1. Global PV installed capacity grew by a 30% CAGR in 201317 to 403GW. 2. Global production of solar cells and solar modules reached 104GW/105GW, up by 27% CAGRs over 2013-17. 3. Global PV installed capacity estimated to hit 1.3 terawatts (TW) in 2023, by SolarPower Europe.
GTT has a flexible manufacturing model. It focuses on high-value-added sales & marketing, R&D, prototyping & final assembly and testing & quality control while outsourcing most of its less-complex and labour-intensive tasks to carefullyselected sub-contractors. Coupled with a flat organisational structure, it runs a lean and cost-efficient business which allows it to adapt quickly to changing market demand. This allowed GTT to ride out business volatility and financial crises in the past without incurring large operating losses.
GTT is largely cash-generative, with net cash of MYR57m as at end-Dec 2018. This should allow GTT to:
i) fund floor-space expansion internally; or ii) gear up for any M&As. Currently, GTT has two facilities - one in Bayan Lepas, Pulau Pinang and the other in Kulim, Kedah - totalling 94k sq ft in production space, excluding office space. Excluding its new Bayan Lepas plant, utilisation hit a high of 86% in FY18.
Global movement to decarbonise electricity… Solar energy using PV is the fastest growing source of renewable energy, driven by mass deployment in China, Japan and India. In 2017, global PV installed capacity reached 403GW, after growing by a 30% CAGR in 2013-17. Leading the world is China with installed capacity of 131GW (33%). Growth in China’s solar sector has been largely powered by government incentives such as guaranteed electricity prices sold to the grid. Trailing China are the US and Japan with installed capacity of 51GW and 49GW respectively. Global capacity is expected to hit 1.3TW in 2023, according to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power published by SolarPower Europe in May 2019. Growth is still expected to be spearheaded by China despite policy changes in 2018 which included phasing out feed-in tariffs and the introduction of deployment quotas.
…enabled by higher production of solar cells and modules
Global production of solar cells and modules grew by 27% CAGRs in 2013-17 to 104GW and 105GW respectively. In 2017, China was the largest producer of solar cells and modules, accounting for 69% and 72% of global production respectively. With restrictive tariff measures imposed by US on China producers, we believe that production of solar cells would be shifted to neutral grounds such as Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. New capacities in these ASEAN countries could drive higher automation efforts, in search of better production yields.
Malaysia was the third-largest manufacturer of solar cells and modules in the world that year, accounting for 7% and 6% of global production respectively. The PV industry is a growing subsector of the E&E industry in Malaysia. Over the years, Malaysia has developed a solar industry cluster comprising upstream polysilicon production, ingot & wafer manufacturing, solar cell & solar module manufacturing, and downstream system integration. Among the major foreign cell and/or module manufacturers with a manufacturing presence in Malaysia are First Solar Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Panasonic Energy Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Jinko Solar Technology Sdn Bhd, Longi (Kuching) Sdn Bhd, Solar Malaysia Sdn Bhd and Hanhwa Q Cells Malaysia Sdn Bhd.
Solar-cell technologies: Crystalline vs. thin-film
Crystalline silicon solar and thin-film solar are two of the most common solar cells. In general, thin-film solar panels are the least costly. However, they require a larger surface area to generate the same power output due to their lower efficiency than crystalline silicon solar panels. Crystalline silicon solar panels also tend to last longer than thin-film solar panels. As a result, the solar module industry is 90% dominated by crystalline silicon solar cells.
First Solar’s success stems from its differentiated cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology in making thin-film solar panels. CdTe has a band gap that is ideally matched to the solar spectrum, which means it is more effective than other technologies at absorbing sunlight. Also, via First Solar’s patented technology, CdTe can be easily deposited directly onto glass, allowing for superior manufacturability. Combining these advantages with the superior energy yields of CdTe modules in real-world conditions, First Solar is able to produce costeffective thin-film solar panels to compete with crystalline players, mostly based in China. Currently, CdTe solar panels are the predominant thin-film technology with about 5% of worldwide production. Backed by their cost efficiency, we believe First Solar’s new Series 6 products have the potential to gain more market share.
First Solar’s transition from Series 4 to Series 6 solar panels represents one of its most momentous upgrades. With the higher efficiency and larger form factor of Series 6, manufacturing cost per watt is expected to be 40% lower than Series 4. This closes its gap with crystalline solar panels. With four of its factories converted to Series 6 in the last 15 months, First Solar has made considerable progress in expansion schedules, operational performance and costs. Comparing its Feb 2019 operating metrics which included the first full month of production at its second Vietnam factory with its Apr 2019 metrics, First Solar’s megawatts produced per day were up 34%, capacity utilisation up 21ppts and production yields up 2ppts to 90%.
In order to deliver its sizeable order backlog of 12.2GW as at early May 2019, First Solar is forging ahead with Series 6 expansion at its Ohio factory. Its first tool and jig will be installed by end-2Q19. Upon completion by early 2020, First Solar will have five factories with aggregate annual Series 6 capacity of 5.4GW. In order to meet its 2019 production commitments, First Solar is also upgrading two production lines to maximise throughput at its various sites.
GTT commenced operations in 1998 as a fabricator of machined parts and components used in semi-automated equipment for the assembly of hard disk drives. Having acquired expertise in automation equipment, GTT ventured into designing and building its first fully-automated tape-splicing equipment for the semiconductor industry. Soon after, it expanded its range of automated equipment, incorporating functions such as loading and unloading, vision inspection and identification, pick and place, and trim and form. These covered small semiconductor packages, including components for a prominent North American smartphone maker.
Breakthrough in sector diversification came in 2008, when GTT made inroads in the solar industry by supplying manual handling equipment and tools to First Solar. A solid track record with First Solar subsequently landed it jobs to supply automated handlers for front-end solar wafers. These were granted pioneer status by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in 2013. GTT further expanded into production line systems (PLS) in 2017, incorporating multi-function single automated equipment for end-to-end production line automation. With that, it signed a master equipment purchase agreement effective Dec 2017 with First Solar. Maiden contributions from PLS tripled GTT’s FY17 revenue YoY.
Also in FY17, GTT entered into an equipment purchase and sale agreement with Panasonic to provide loading and unloading equipment for handling solar wafers. Entry into Panasonic’s supply chain could potentially open up new opportunities in the EV-battery energy subsector. We believe this is one of the impetuses behind GTT’s IPO, to support its penetration of the life-science and automotive industries.
Part of its IPO proceeds will also be used to fund its new Bayan Lepas plant located next to its head office, which will cost MYR27m. Construction has been completed and GTT will be utilising this space in 2H19. Elsewhere, expansion at Batu Kawan will commence in 2H19. Upon completion in 2H20, it will house GTT’s fabrication and assembly operation which will move from Kulim.
(i) MEPA Parties GTT and First Solar group of companies. Description Purchase and sale of certain equipment and related services, including design, manufacture, testing, installation, training and post-installation support. Duration 27 Jun 2017 to 31 Dec 2021 Payment Terms (i) 30% - confirmation of order; (ii) 50% - pre-delivery at GTT and receipt of invoice; (iii) 20% - upon acceptance by First Solar in writing, completion of training and receipt of invoice. Main products Production line systems.
(ii) EPSA Parties GTT and Panasonic. Description GTT to provide loading and unloading equipment to handle solar wafers and perform related services for Panasonic. Duration 15 April 2017 to end of warranty period. Warranty period means: (i) Loading and unloading: 2 years after satisfying final acceptance test. (ii) Performance of applicable services: 2 years after service. (iii) Acceptance by Panasonic of goods and marketable title to all products, free and clear of all issues. Payment Terms (i) 30% - confirmation of order; (ii) 20% - completion of assembly of equipment; (iii) 30% - completion of site acceptance test at GTT’s plant; (iv) 20% - completion of installation and final acceptance test.
Above is payable within 30 days of invoice date. Main products Loading and unloading equipment to handle solar wafers
GTT was founded in 1998 by Mr Tan Eng Kee (CEO) and Mr Khor Lean Heng (COO). Both bring over 20 years of experience in industrial automation. Mr Tan and Mr Khor hold a combined 74% of GTT after IPO, under GTECH Holdings, which is 90:10 owned by Mr Tan: Mr Khor. They are backed by a management team which has an execution track record in industrial automation. The latter is reflected in recent job and customer wins, such as Panasonic. Other pioneers are LLH Holdings, a 50:25:25 venture between Ms Koay Lin (CFO), Mr Lee Choong Li and Mr Lee Hong Wah, which hold a 3.2% stake in GTT. In addition, domestic institutions hold ~6% despite GTT being listed in the smaller ACE Market.
GTT was listed on the ACE Market of Bursa Malaysia on 13 Jun 2019. Based on its recent 1Q19 earnings, prima facie, it is likely to be able to meet the requirements for a transfer to the Main Market. In order to qualify for transfer, GTT must have uninterrupted profits for 3-5 full financial years based on audited financial statements. It must have aggregate after-tax profits of at least MYR20m and an after-tax profit of at least MYR6m for its most recent financial year. GTT delivered after-tax profits of MYR26m in FY17 and MYR37m in FY18. In 1Q19, its after-tax profit was MYR12.5m. GTT’s transfer to the Main Market, if it meets the profit qualification for the entire FY19, could happen in early-2020, after its FY19 accounts are audited, we estimate. The transfer can happen even earlier as GTT was also profitable in FY16, with after-tax profit of MYR6m.
Rapid expansion since 2017 has bumped up GTT’s workforce from about 130 in 2016 to 420. Some 30% of this comprises R&D specialists, necessary to anchor its future growth.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
klee
3,524 posts
Posted by klee > 2019-06-19 11:56 | Report Abuse
cleared all 98,move on...bye