Beware of risks in investing in sizzling oil and gas (Monday February 24, 2014 MYT 6:36:48 AM)
THE oil and gas (O&G) space is sizzling and there’s no sign of it cooling off any time soon. There are deals aplenty being made. Just this week StarBiz reported that exploration giant Murphy Oil was looking at hiving off stakes in its assets in the country at a whopping price of some US$2bil to US$3bil (RM6.62bil to RM9.93bil).
Any local listed company buying these assets would see itself being transformed into a major O&G producer, overnight. The question of course, is whether one can afford such a price tag and whether the returns from that investment will be worth it. Also, the proposed sale by Murphy Oil doesn’t seem to include any management control over those assets.
Another notable development StarBiz highlighted was Petronas being close to selling 10% in Canadian shale gas concern Progress Energy at a valuation of twice what the national O&G company paid back in 2012.
This is significant because Petronas came under flak for presumably paying too much to buy Progress Energy then. But now it’s sitting pretty on an asset whose value keeps rising.
Then, there was the exciting development at Scomi Energy Bhd two Fridays ago, when savvy investors Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan and his associate Paul Poh, swooped in to get a block of shares at a seemingly mouth-watering discount.
By Monday, the buyers of this block of 11.5% of Scomi Energy – that included Norway’s oil fund, Norges and Lembaga Tabung Haji - were sitting on a 42% paper gain.
Scomi Energy and another O&G company, Uzma Bhd, whose shares have enjoyed a spectacular 67% rise over the last six months – are said to be bidding and close to securing risk service contracts from Petronas.
Late last year saw another exciting O&G play enter the market: Barakah Offshore Petroleum Bhd, which is 166% up from its reverse takeover price of 65 sen.
Barakah made such an impact that dealers now talk of finding the “next Barakah” in the form of listed companies hoping to see an O&G asset injection.
Investors are also chasing a number of other O&G companies.
But making money from the O&G business isn’t easy. Our market has seen its fair share of O&G companies that had stumbled in the past.
As examples, consider the stories of Ramunia Holdings Bhd, KNM Group Bhd Malaysia Marine, Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MMHE) and the Scomi group. These stocks were at one point the darling of investors.
But at some point, they struggled to execute their businesses well. O&G fabricator Ramunia had slipped into PN17 status in June 2010. To quote from a Maybank research report dated April 2010: “Ramunia is in bad shape operationally and financially. It faces declining order book, earnings and shareholders funds due to poor project execution and negative cash flows.”
KNM Group Bhd was another high-flying oil and gas player. But it too did stumble, suffering a quarterly loss in 2009 and a full year loss at group level in 2011. Among the reasons for its losses was its high fixed cost and debt levels. It’s aggressive overseas expansion also saw it having to provide for foreseeable losses in Brazil, Canada and Indonesia.
The Scomi group had encountered similar problems with its overseas assets while giant fabricator MMHE had suffered from higher-than-expected expenses incurred from some of its projects and from the share of losses from jointly controlled entities’ performance.
One problem is that the O&G business, like many other sectors, is cyclical. You may invest during peak times but then get saddled with high fixed costs and low utilisation rates when the cycle hits a downturn.
Getting the right expertise to executive projects profitably is another challenge.
Investors shouldn’t get carried away with companies saying they are going to morph into an O&G concern. Such things don’t necessarily happen overnight. In the case of Barakah, it took the company two years to finalise its reverse takeover.
And if you are talking about the exploration and production segment, then remember that the oil majors took many years to get to where they are today.
The golden rule of looking for companies whose management have the right expertise and track record shouldn’t be forgotten in these bullish days of the O&G sector.
Senior news editor Risen Jayaseelan is betting that the O&G space will continue to sizzle in the weeks and months to come, with deals taking place left, right and centre and thereby offering opportunities aplenty for astute and well-informed investors.
lollipopz. this week i think cannot;next month maybe. hard to breakout 0.48/0.485. today volume more than duble friday volume;likely profit taking tomorrow. may be i am wrong;anyway have key in to sell @ 0.46.
Bro swingtrader. Hai ya.. Today whole day I'm so busy, even got not much time to monitor my trades and just came back to home and turn on I3 then saw a bad news from u liao. Kenapa bro? Ur trades at stock market also can buy u an expensive cigars plus branded underwears ady lo. Keke.. Why swing to marketing to get u the cigars. Adui.. Anyway, u must miss us very much okay, just like our bro mikekong do. Pls come back visit us more often whenever u are free ya, especially during the weekend. Hehe.. By the way, all the best to u in ur new career advancement. Wishing u best of luck always. Well sleep tonight and have a brand new day starting from tmr. God bless. :)
Bro mikekong. U are really great la bro. U always just make me cannot sleep. Hihi. Okay, tmr buy Luster then. Thanks for ur tips again. Hehe.. :)
Bro swingtrader, aiya.. Go do marketing pulak.. Swing here n there better money ma. Get one in office can sit there work + swing. lol Anyway, all the best! Can post your comment here early in the morning too. heheh
changlk03 - Haha it's highly possible? Why? Because if you believe in golden ratio, or Fibonacci ratio, 61.8% or 0.618 is the possible place to retreat to. Go find some charts and draw it! It might be either at 31,50 or 61.8. Not necessary every time it needs to be 61.8 one...
Good morning all. There's a news related to Luster: OTHERS - ACQUISITION OF SHARES FOR A TOTAL CONSIDERATION OF RM2.00
LUSTER INDUSTRIES BHD.
Type Announcement Subject OTHERS Description - ACQUISITION OF SHARES FOR A TOTAL CONSIDERATION OF RM2.00
The Board of Directors of LUSTER INDUSTRIES BHD ("LUSTER") wishes to announce that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Luster Precision Engineering Sdn Bhd (“LPE”) had on 24 February 2014 acquired the entire issued and paid-up share capital of Pembinaan LSP Jaya Sdn. Bhd. ("PLSP"), a private limited company incorporated in Malaysia under the Companies Act, 1965 on 19 February 2014, with an authorised share capital of RM400,000.00 comprising of 400,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each, of which 2 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each have been issued and fully paid-up, for a cash consideration of RM2.00 (the "Acquisition") from Puan Hasliza Binti Mat Hushin and Puan Farah Hasnina Binti Abd Hadi.
Pursuant to the Acquisition, PLSP becomes a wholly-owned subsidiary of LPE. PLSP is presently dormant.
None of the Directors and/or substantial shareholders of LUSTER and persons connected to them have any interest, direct or indirect, in the Acquisition.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by hepitrade > 2014-01-02 18:04 | Report Abuse
What say you, bro & sis ?