Warren Buffett's approach to Growth. Growth on its own is not a valuable thing as a rule. Benjamin Graham's approach.
Look first at Assets. Then look at Earnings Power - making sure that they are protected by the assets.
Warren Buffett's approach.
Look at Assets and Earnings Power. Only then, look to pay something for Growth. Growth is only valuable if the return on investment in growth is greater than the cost of capital. If not, growth can destroy value. Growth on its own is not a valuable thing as a rule. If you are going to buy growth, you better be sure of the franchise value.
TUESDAY, 12 MAY 2009 ****Seek good growth and avoid bad growth I love to invest in good quality long-term profitable growth businesses available at reasonable or bargain prices. Yet, growth can be good and can also be bad. Let's take a look.
A framework for distinguishing good from bad growth is a crucial element in generating revenue growth.
Good growth: not only increases revenues but improves profits, is sustainable over time, and does not use unacceptable levels of capital. is also primarily organic (internally generated) and based on differentiated products and services that fill new or unmet needs, creating value for customers.
The ability to generate internal growth separates leaders who build their businesses on a solid foundation of long-term profitable growth from those who, through acquisitions and financial engineering, increase revenues like crazy but who create that growth on shaky footings that ultimately crumble.
Many acquisitions provide a one-shot improvement, as duplicative costs are removed from the combined companies. But few, if any, demonstrate any significant improvement in the RATE of growth of revenues.
Buffett: The case for shares. "It will be by far the safest."
Unsurprisingly, Buffett makes the case for investing in shares – the productive capacity of democratic capitalism. He also gives a sense of the best businesses to own. Buffett prefers '‘first-class'’ companies that can keep up with inflation and that also require only minimal new capital to produce their returns. Buffett cites Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) as one such example.
He says “I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three (gold, cash & bonds and shares) we've examined. More important, it will be by far the safest.”
That’s a critical point – equities are often characterised as risky, volatile and complex (and some companies’ shares can be all three), but when compared to the risk taken by buying assets that don’t sustain your purchasing power, Buffett argues that the safest way to secure your financial future is to swap some shorter term volatility for longer term ‘'purchasing power'’ protection.
Comparing the returns from investing in the three asset classes discussed since 1965. - $US100 invested in US government bonds would have compounded to be worth $US1336 by the end of 2011. - Gold would have far outpaced cash, turning into $US4455. - But equities would have done over one-third better, compounding its way to $US6072.
But then, to do well in investing over the long run, all you must do is the hard work of finding high-quality businesses at reasonable prices, and then keeping them through the cycles and till they remain high-quality. That’s the way wealth is created.
The market rewards companies that earn high returns on capital over a long period.
Companies that earn low returns may get an occasional bounce in the short term, but their long-term performance will be just as miserable as their returns on capital.
The wealth a company creates - as measured by returns on capital - will find its way to shareholders over the long term in the form of dividends or stock appreciation.
Peaked at 5.39 in May 2018. Today's price is 3.80. A drop of 29.5% from its peak price. ========================================================== Is Hai-O a high ROIC business or a low ROIC business??
Ratios & Margins Hai-O Enterprise Bhd All values updated annually at fiscal year end
Valuation P/E Ratio (TTM) 14.62 P/E Ratio (including extraordinary items) 15.71 Price to Sales Ratio 3.12 Price to Book Ratio 4.69 Price to Cash Flow Ratio 26.41 Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.46 Enterprise Value to Sales 2.33 Total Debt to Enterprise Value 0.00 Total Debt to EBITDA 0.02 EPS (recurring) 0.25 EPS (basic) 0.25 EPS (diluted) 0.25
Liquidity Current Ratio 3.28 Quick Ratio 2.09 Cash Ratio 1.65
Profitability Gross Margin +34.99 Operating Margin +17.79 Pretax Margin +20.90 Net Margin +15.65 Return on Assets 18.91 Return on Equity 24.38 Return on Total Capital 26.52 Return on Invested Capital 24.38
KEY STOCK DATA P/E Ratio (TTM) 14.62 (09/28/18 Price RM 3.77) EPS (TTM) RM0.26 Market Cap RM1.21 B Shares Outstanding 303.29 M Public Float 158.38 M Yield 5.84% (09/28/18) Latest Dividend RM0.11 (11/22/18) Ex-Dividend Date 11/07/18
3iii...truth be told.....investors will make money if they can find companies with good businesses and good management...and do some timing correctly......
all the rest of book theories, and guru quotations are unnecessary complications.
Warren Buffett ~We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and competent people, and (4) available at a very attractive price~
So, what’s yours??
..investors will make money if they can find companies with good businesses and good management...and do some timing correctly......
all the rest of book theories, and guru quotations are unnecessary complications.
Posted by 3iii at Aug 12, 2018 08:05 AM | Report Abuse My Golden Rule of Investing: Companies that grow revenues and earnings will see share prices grow over time. ================
not too bad except fr two problems......
1. wrong prediction
2. in the case of LCTitan, even predict correctly the strong results can still lose money if not careful.
the business environment going forward too uncertain......
the better rule is still good business sense and good management.
DO NOT BE MISLEAD BY THE DYNAMIC OF HIGH ROE LOH....!!
GOOD EXAMPLE NESTLE ROE 100%....BUT THIS IS BASED ON EQUITY OF ABOUT RM 700M LOH.....!!
SUPPOSE....U ADD CAPITAL OR EQUITY TO NESTLE SAY TO RM 2.1 BILLION....CAN IT STILL MAKE 100% ROE LEH ?? THE ANS...IS NO LOH.....!! THE ROE WILL FALL LOH...!! BCOS THE EXTRA CAPITAL DOES NOT GENERATE GOOD RETURN FOR NESTLE MEH ??
SO IF U INVEST...BASED ON THIS HIGH ROE NOTION FOR NESTLE, U WILL GET IT WRONG LOH....!! THATS WHY OVERVALUE LOH....!! ITS PE 60X
IF U LOOK AT NESTLE DIV YIELD OF 1.9% PA....IT IS LOWER THAN THE BENCHMARK FIXED DEPOSITS OF 4% PA LOH...!!
THATS WHY THE FAIR VALUATION OF NESTLE SHOULD BE BASED ON PE AND DIV YIELD THAT IS REFLECTIVE OF ITS BENCHMARK VALUATION MAH...!!
Some idea for your next blog post-: "Generally speaking, I believe most investors would benefit dramatically from viewing their investments in the belief that their ownership is completely illiquid and that the only source of returns will be dividends. Owners therefore would only generate returns from the receipt of dividends accruing from operating cash flows or from the liquidation of assets. In this thought experiment, the market price with all its fluctuation will be forgotten, and any terminal sale will also be forgotten- they will consider themselves owners until complete liquidation leading to dissolution. "
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-12 08:05 | Report Abuse
My Golden Rule of Investing: Companies that grow revenues and earnings will see share prices grow over time.