rohank71

another thing I notice from analyst report. the NPV on discounted cashflow remains the same every quater. how can this be? NPV supposed to be increasing every quater based on discount rate. can anyone comment.

1 week ago

rohank71

the firm order book is 10B so say opex 40% its 6B cash flow.
extension is also abt 10B and opex say 80% is 2B... so over the next 10 yrs BAs cash generated should be 8B less debt 3B is only balance 5B or 80 sen.. how can the NPV today is 80 sen based on most analyst report. its only 80 sen in 10 yrs.

1 week ago

TimCoke

lets 570 tomorrow

1 week ago

nikicheong

New Delhi, June 11 (IANS) Public sector upstream giant Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (NS:ONGC) will start gas production from its eastern offshore deep-water field in the Krishna-Godavari block KG-DWN-98/2 soon, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said on Tuesday after taking charge as a member of the Modi 3.0 Cabinet.

He also said that oil production will increase to 45,000 barrels per day very soon.

https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ongc-to-start-gas-production-soon-from-eastern-offshore-krishnagodavari-field-hardeep-puri-4245649

1 week ago

Robert Waters

I like the use of word SOON in this official release of the ministry. I also prepared 3 similar phrases for use. They all mean nothing. Good to use when being pressed by a fiancee to get married. They are:

BEFORE YOU KNOW IT
FASTER THAN YOU THINK
IN NO TIME AT ALL
😅

1 week ago

TimCoke

45k barrels is SOON, but 40k is a guaranteed easy job

1 week ago

ageetkumar

Is there any new information in the following upstream article? Anybody has full access?

https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/payment-dispute-lingers-for-largest-fpso-operating-in-india/2-1-1660662

1 week ago

nikicheong

Tim, they've been stuck at 12k bopd since January.

1 week ago

Macgyver111

I remember last year I bought Armada around average 0.53 and disposed with good profit after it break 0.60. Today I open, our friend Armada still trading @ 0.55 kah...adoi!!
Perdana lagi sempoi...touched 0.40 ready. Velesto start giving dividend. Apa sdh jadi sama ni Armada 😴😪

1 week ago

Robert Waters

Shareholders in Armada are trapped. Kena trap. There is always bad surprise, like broken pump at Kraken, 500 mln impairment on future cash flow or no new project at all, despite being selected as preferred bid for Cameia. Or delays after delays to Armada Sterling V. I think people hope Armada runs out of things to go wrong, and wait for just NOTHING. Meaning no more bad news for a while. That would be our 'break.'

1 week ago

vespa

I am out but still will keep track of Armada and buy in only severe dips for the sole reason I think AK may just take it private for his upstream business. O & G stocks in the North Sea are being hammered due to the incoming Labour govt ( way ahead in the polls ). Policies are anti fossil fuels ;;;
Headlines Labour energy policies already impacting North Sea business
Labour's proposed ban on award new North Sea oil and gas licences has already spooked producers. UK Labour Plans £1.2 Billion Windfall Tax on Oil & Gas Giants.
I am sure some are already aware of this. This could probably be Armada's halting share price progress.

1 week ago

vespa

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1886712/hueg-new-north-sea-oil-field-drilling

1 week ago

vespa

This is just info and not to troll Armada's prospects with Kraken. I think this has already been baked in the price. Labour is expected to form the next govt

1 week ago

vespa

Rohank. NPV as you know is a discounting mechanism. It discounts free cashflow from the future to present. Every year’s projected free cashflow is discounted to the present. So from my basic calc say discount rate 14 or 15% ( this can be determined with assumptions) you discount each year to the present. You could take 5 yrs or 10 yrs to discount plus terminal rate. Generally 10 yrs plus terminal rate. Hope this helps. Here in Malaysia one cannot predict 3 yrs in to the future so it becomes quite academic . This works well with large companies with steady cashflow and durable with few surprises.

1 week ago

rohank71

there is no terminal rate for BA as all its contracts expire on a certain date.
also if discounted cashflow the value should only increase over time.

1 week ago

rohank71

I am feeling very jittery on BA. Just worried if the so called expert analyst knows whats they are doing. the numbers doesnt add up.

1 week ago

nikicheong

The Armada Sterling V FPSO, operating at ONGC’s Cluster 2 project in Block KG-DWN-98/2 in India, achieved first oil on January 7, 2024. The FPSO, owned by a joint venture of Shapoorji Pallonji Energy (70%) and Malaysia’s Bumi Armada (30%), is awaiting a final acceptance test to start receiving the full charter rate from ONGC. However, Bumi Armada disclosed that certain payments have been withheld by ONGC during the start-up phase, pending discussions on additional outstanding claims. Market sources indicate that the FPSO owners are currently receiving lower revenues compared to the full charter rate due to these unresolved issues.

The main outstanding issue appears to be the introduction of gas into the FPSO, which, once resolved, will trigger the start of the full dayrate. Additionally, payment issues have persisted from the previous year when the FPSO was ready to receive hydrocarbons, but ONGC could not deliver production due to damaged subsea infrastructure at Cluster 2. Bumi Armada and ONGC continue discussions to resolve the payment issues and move forward with full operations.

The Armada Sterling V is India’s largest floater, with an oil processing capacity of 50,000 barrels per day, a gas capacity of 3 million cubic meters per day, and a crude storage capacity of 700,000 barrels. The FPSO, converted from the tanker Ariake by Seatrium in Singapore, is designed to withstand severe cyclonic conditions.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/payment-dispute-lingers-for-largest-fpso-operating-in-india/2-1-1660662

1 week ago

vespa

Rohank it would help if you get up to speed with Finance 101.

1 week ago

marlboroman2

I am just a very small RM 10k stakeholder and trying to piece together what i know of BAB's at the moment, is the below correct? (feel free to point out any mistake made hereinafter, thanks)

1. Sterling V, awaiting 72 hour testing in June 2024 for final acceptance. Thereafter, full charter rate starts in 3rd Qtr (vs current standby rate). Delay is due to piping issue on seabed (McDermott is fixing it?) and coz of the inclusion of gas hence some of last year's o/s payment is in the mix.

2. ⁠TGT, finishing firm period in Nov 2024, client likely to extend lease to 2026 to drill more wells in TGT field, talks ongoing and client is negotiating in tandem with PSC extension.

3. Olombendo, successfully negotiated higher O&M rates last year arising from escalating operating cost.

4. ⁠Kraken, planning is underway ahead of planned return to drilling during 2025, with joint venture approval granted to order select long lead equipment required to facilitate the two-well sidetrack programme (per Enquest).

5. First foray into upsteam exploration & production in Akia block North Kalimantan. A 51:49 JV with Pexco having already secured the contract with Indonesian Authorities, however, still in seismic stage and therefore premature to factor anything in.

6. Leading contender for USD 1 billion EPCC contract FPSO Cameia.

7. ⁠Potential USD 2 bil projects to bid between 2024-2026 for SC vessels, in particular in tge Kazakhstan region (the CEO is flying there this month end?)

1 week ago

Robert Waters

FPSO Cameia is done by the Saipem with Chinese. Write it off.
Kazakhstan is not a very good prospect. I suggest you check Roach Energy, now at all time low. They operate in Kazakhstan.

1 week ago

marlboroman2

Noted with many thanks @ Robert

1 week ago

Robert Waters

You are welcome. Take it from a guy who spent 3 years in Kazakhstan, both offshore and onshore. All the projects I saw were failing as the locals were simply too corrupt even for Italians to handle them. And it takes a lot to outdo Italians in corruption.
They had good coffee though, I admit.

1 week ago

TimCoke

any news will do, just wait

1 week ago

Robert Waters

Yes, even small project in between. There is Turkmenistan, Russia and Azerbaijan by the Caspian Sea. They all could be in need of offshore pipeline work.

1 week ago

bullrun168

Walaoeh, what happend ?
Super damn hot man Armada today !
Now Armada was traded at @0.57 (+0.015) (+2.7 %)

Heng ah, Ong ah, Huat ah !

6 days ago

Robert Waters

Tan KW
Publish date: Wed, 19 Jun 2024, 04:14 PM
The daily chart of Bumi Armada (ARMADA, 5210, Main Board Energy) closed at RM0.565 on June 18, up 1.0 sen or 1.80% on a daily basis, sideways between the support level and the rising trend line. Its daily relative strength index (RSI) indicator began to rise and is at 48.98. Its share price may break through and climb to the resistance level between RM0.615-0.63 in the short term. Its support level is at RM0.55-0.56.
Huat ah, everyone.

5 days ago

marlboroman2

huat ah, heng ah, ong lai liao la .... maybe this is the real catalyst needed to push BA's price up to the next level where all else seems to fail.

5 days ago

Robert Waters

Now, this is a good point. Nicky talking about new projects or extensions, but the real thing may be crossing the line sideways with resistance trend. Oh my.

5 days ago

TimCoke

low volume

5 days ago

TimCoke

good sign

4 days ago

nikicheong

Even Genting has a lucrative FLNG contract. https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3457525

Quite shameful I must say.

4 days ago

jacintateh

Someone sold big time before closing, causing price to fall back to 0.555. these people just won't let it go back up again.

4 days ago

Robert Waters

Or maybe someone lost patience with the management and decided NOT to hold it any more.
Why would he purposely hurt himself by keeping the stock down ?
To buy more in the future would be my guess.

4 days ago

Robert Waters

About this Genting / Wison projet. I know the company Wison. My former colleague who interviewed me for a job few years ago went there, and it was a posting to an unknown entity. Chinese job. Bumi Armada was a big player.
Now Wison gets contract and Bumi Armada has NOTHING anounces partnerships for green initiatives without any specific project.

4 days ago

warris

early stage i heard this job genting & armada...maybe same case with cameia...pricing issue..thats way armada call off.

4 days ago

Gabriel Khoo

For UOB Kay Hian, Yinson’s new projects are coming into FY2025 earnings horizon, including two Brazil floating production storage and offloading vessels and the Matarani Solar project at its non-oil-and-gas segment.

However, “accounting distortion is growing alongside its leverage, and both may confuse investors and prolong the stock’s hefty trading discount,” the research house said, flagging “messy and confusing” finance lease disclosure to its true financial and leverage ratios.

Yinson’s measure of leverage in terms of net debt to cash flow was four times, though the ratio would rise to seven times based on the International Financial Reporting Standards disclosure, UOB Kay Hian noted. “For this to work, in our view, Yinson must adopt directional reporting,” the house said.

4 days ago

rohank71

I have left BA. sold all my holdings as I heard some top shareholders collectively holding more than 50M shares have exited and are still selling. They have lost hope in BA.

I also checked with some Finance Experts and they also confirmed that the analyst valuation on DCF is wrong and its more like a Future Cash Value of BA and not NPV of BA.

those holding on pls do ur own homework on the valuation which the analyst have presented... if its NPV based on DCF the value MUST go up every Q or else new problems have croped up every Q and have kept the value down.

Good luck to all and make your profits whilst can.

4 days ago

Robert Waters

Rohank, good luck to you. Tell us where you moved.
One of the last longs to leave .... may be sign of a bottom.
They call it: CAPITULATION.

4 days ago

TimCoke

Rohan, 560 is still a good deal, have a second look, do not miss it

4 days ago

nikicheong

Rohan understand it but your concerns about the calculations are misguided. In the absence of new contracts and all else being equal (i.e. fx rates etc), then as the company runs down its charters, the NPV will reduce every sequential quarter.

4 days ago

Robert Waters

I think there must be a reason while BAB have NOT secured a single contract in 8 years. I suspect that the Greedy Gary just does not want the risk and hassle of new project. Finds an excuse to reject it, or does not even put a real try to convince the client.
It is much easier to make vague plans of becoming green leader, or progressive by developing partnership with competitor or alternative service provider, rather than a partnership with a client. And that works for a while, until the old money runs out.

4 days ago

Robert Waters

Amazing action with BAB. Every minute there is a small sale. It is relentless. Someone decided to exit for sure, and we should let him do it. Just an example that goes on without any stopping.
114 09:57:20 am 0.555 0 2,300 1,192,400
113 09:56:30 am 0.555 0 2,300 1,190,100
112 09:55:42 am 0.555 0 2,200 1,187,800
111 09:54:46 am 0.555 0 2,000 1,185,600
110 09:53:12 am 0.555 0 4,000 1,183,600
109 09:53:06 am 0.555 0 2,000 1,179,600

4 days ago

Genovese

I sold 50% of my holding in BAB. The remaining 50% is my long term bet on Armada Akia block venture. This could be a jackpot.

4 days ago

leeabraham

interestingly, they was invisible hands trying to push it up back again to 0.56 at the 11th hour before closing but failed miserably. week on week unchanged, what is in store next week, down and break below 0.555?

3 days ago

Robert Waters

I bought some at 0.555, but not to push the market up. I just want to sell it and anounce here like all do that I sold off some of my position just as did all my fellow longs. Hopefully at miniscule profit.

The funny thing is I could NOT get a fill all day, then I finally bought it at 16:50 hrs in the after market / closing time. There was a huge selling wave at market. Also enormous wave of buy orders ... for the order book window dressing ?. I think it was meant to intimidate sellers (buys went from 4 to 8 mln).

3 days ago

rohank71

#niki.. i agree with U on the NPV of each FPSO goes down as it means the value has translated to cash or lower debt and increasing net BA values. but in this case BA value remain the same and in some instances lower (only possible if BA pays DV or cash losses somewhere else). I am not looking at FPSO NPV but the sum of parts... net of debt... and there is no terminal value for BA as its charters all has an expiry date after extension.

3 days ago

rohank71

no point looking at individual FPSO value as we buy BA ie sum of parts.

3 days ago

Robert Waters

Todays price drop is an indication that perhaps Greedy Gary turned down contracts in the Caspian Sea for pipeline construction vessels (too much hard work) and decided to follow inclusive or green targets in the future by more woke declarations.

1 day ago

696988

Gary not greedy enough. He should boost the share price up since got 40m of share. hahaha

17 hours ago

bullrun168

Walaoeh, oil price spike up like mad !
Brent closed at=> $86.01 +0.77 +0.90 %
Heng ah, Ong ah, Huat ah !

6 hours ago