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Last Price

4.75

Today's Change

+0.04 (0.85%)

Day's Change

4.73 - 4.78

Trading Volume

43,700

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Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 50 of 17,844 comments

AzlanIshtiqal

Setuju. Terus memantau dan tunggu Q2 keputusan diumumkan bulan ni...

1 week ago

Sslee

Thank probability for the link.
If retail profit is RM 0.08 cent per liter.
Petronm q1 2022 volume is 7.7 million barrel or equal 7.7x 159 million liter so the profit will be 7.7 x159 x 0.08= RM 98 million.

1 week ago

sheldon

A big chunk of retail profit will be attributed to the evil twin sisters, Petron Fuel International & Petron Oil. How much? God only knows.

6 days ago

Sslee

The Q1 2022: 7.7 million barrel volume is for Petronm alone.

6 days ago

The St. Goreng

become a lame duck this petron. No volume
Why ah? Not hot anymore?
FA become bad oledi ah?

6 days ago

GrowthCapitalist

Malaysia always have the weirdest market from other exchange, comparatively MPC, VLO, XOM, CVX refinery has stabilize from the fall yet our refinery still at the rock bottom. Haiz.

5 days ago

searchingmoney

Petronas tiap tahun bagi govt dividend, not sure Petronm ada bagi. kalau ade, mayb share price sama macam Petronas?

5 days ago

Star8888

Sell HengYuan and PetronM

Crack spread drop 5.74%
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Gasolin crack spread drop 5.63%
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/hiuzadjh/?symbol=NYMEX%3AGZ1%21

4 days ago

The St. Goreng

Why no volume? and no one bother to comment?

3 days ago

hng33

Added more at 4.68-4.72

3 days ago

hng33

At least 2/3 valuation of petron should be reflect on its 3rd largest retain petrol station, a total of profit making 760 station, commanding about quarters of Malaysia petrol market share.

3 days ago

hng33

In additional to retail petrol station, refining business in long term should form just 1/4 valuation on petronm.

In fact, petron refining business should view as complement to its retail petrol as integrated fuel provider as all its refinary oil end product is sell to its own retail station, enjoy full profit margin in entire chain supply from trading, storage, refining, logistic, retail, end customer product

3 days ago

Jerichomy

This hng333 you tak takut like shark inside will sell to you like heng yuan haha

3 days ago

AzlanIshtiqal

Bagus. Rebound pada penutupan pasaran hari ni

3 days ago

Star8888

Crack spread drop 3.78% to 6.831. Sell HengYuan and PetronM

2 days ago

hng33

Bear in mind, PetronM retail petrol station still selling its petrol
RON97 at RM 4.50/l;
RON100 at RM 4.90/l;
RON 95 if unsubsidized at RON 4.30/l

You should checked what the retail petrol level last year when crack spread at 7-8. There is big lag time arbitrary gain for PetronM. capitalize on current elevated retail price level despite at current crack spread

2 days ago

hng33

Malaysia gov seem granted retail petrol opportunity to capitalize on current still elevated selling price to end customer by adjusting slowly retail selling price against rapid decrease in crack spread

2 days ago

hng33

In last year Nov-Dec, the retail RON97 is at RM 3.50/l, crack spread (input cost) is at around 7; vs. retail RON97 now is still at RM 4.50/l for same crack spread at 7.

2 days ago

hng33

The possible reason could be Malaysia gov allow slower adjustment to retail price, allowing petrol station to enjoy higher lag time arbitrary gain as part of compensation due to Malaysia gov short budget, delay to pay subsidy on RON95 to retail station. The delay in payment for subsidy is main complaint by retail as it result in accumulated receivable for prolong time, affecting retail petrol cash flow and interest expense.

2 days ago

hng33

You can refer to other 2 listed company, Petdag (Petronas station) and Boustead holding (under trading division, refer to BH petrol station), both pure retail petrol station profit margin are affected by sale volume and fuel price movement

2 days ago

hng33

Buy PetronM is more on its 750 retail petrol chain, quarter Malaysia petrol market share, rather than its volatile refinery business alone. PetronM refinery business is to complement its retail business as all its refine product is selling through its retail outlet

2 days ago

Sslee

Petrol retail will earned fixed earning per liter (volume) irrespective of products price (The only thing is higher products price will need more working capital and thus higher interest charges.

The commecial sales like jet fuel is then depend on jet fuel crack spread. (Demand of jet fuel)

The refinery profit is very volatile due to crude and products price volatility (up and down very fast hence need hedging) and price different between your crude purchased and products you produce and sales 1.5 month later (market force based on demand and supply condition).

Petronm PD refinery run at rate of 47K barrel per day in Q1 2022.

2 days ago

hng33

Each petrol station have underground fuel storage tank.

In additional, in its refinery site, it also have crude oil storage tank to store feedstock, it also have storage tank for petrol/diessel/jet fuel, the end product tanks.

Each of these above storage tanks above will offer a big arbitrary gain due to lag time effect and timing for Gov to adjust selling price.

2 days ago

AzlanIshtiqal

Permintaan O&G masih tinggi kerana banyak aktiviti dan sukan di seluruh dunia akan dijalankan semula

2 days ago

hng33

It is never in Petdag/Boustead (BH petrol), a pure retail petrol business, to report FIXED profit due to fixed price at all. It is often commented factor that affect profit margin are sale volume + fuel price movement+ time lag affect factors on stockholding gain/loss

2 days ago

Sslee

The petrol retail valuation then in year 2019 precovid time.
Edge Weekly
Newsbreak: Boustead Holdings to exit petrol station business
Jose Barrock
/
The Edge Malaysia

September 16, 2019 16:00 pm +08

A source with knowledge of the matter says, “This (waiting on the sidelines) is because the price tag being bandied about is more than RM1 billion … maybe even RM1.5 billion, or more.

“There are quite a few parties that are looking at it [even though the price tag is high], and there are others still on the sidelines, waiting to see what sort of valuations are being sought by Boustead Holdings.”

BPM sells petrol and similar products such as diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as well as related products such as lubricants. According to Boustead Holdings’ annual report for FY2018, BPM operates as many as 386 petrol stations and marts selling a variety of things.

2 days ago

Sslee

At price of RM 4.71.
Petronm Market Cap: 1,272 Million
NOSH: 270 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks): 347,120
4 Weeks Range: 4.20 - 5.23
4 Weeks Price Volatility (%): 49.51%
52 Weeks Range: 4.05 - 7.73
52 Weeks Price Volatility (%): 17.93%

2 days ago

stockraider

Why suddenly crack spread drop back so low to USD 4 to USD 6 level leh ?

2 days ago

hng33

Crack spread current level is normalize level at around 7. At these level refinery still is profitable business as its cost operation is around USD 4 to 5.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1!/

2 days ago

hng33

Hengyuan, pure refiner, need at least crack spread 4 to breakeven. At its annual report, hengyuan alrdy able to report profit for crack spread above 4.

2 days ago

stockraider

Good Rebound of crack spread from USD 6 to USD 8, but this may not excite potential investors, bcos most investors had been being seeing Crack spread USD 15 to USD 30 previously mah!

1 day ago

hng33

If based on historical data chart, crack spread above 10 is considered an outlier, a rare windfall profit.

The mean crack spread should range 5 to 8, which already gives very good profit margin as refinery cost operation breakeven level is around 4.

1 day ago

hng33

Crack spread above 20 in Q2 will record in the coming result, although is one-off windfall profit, an exception EPS will nevertheless boost company cash hoard significantly.

Bear in mind, if PetronM manages to record EPS RM 2 - RM 2.5 due to exception crack spread in Q2, it could potentially turn its balance sheet into NET CASH position, a significant game changer forward.

1 day ago

stockraider

U see Petrol co enjoying Crack Spread of USD 20 previously, surely if suddenly crack spread fall back to USD 4 to 8 will cause some downward adjustment in term of operations mah!

For June...Petrol co will enjoy good result loh!

But 3rd QTR result will not be so bullish mah!

Mkt already anticipating this loh!

1 day ago

Rabbit2

Petron Corporation, the holding company of Petron M had already announced it's profit early this month which is doubled. From there you can actually gauge roughly the results of Petron M.

1 day ago

hng33

You have to compare the stock price level which is also already reach normalize level. But these normalize level have yet take into account upcoming Q2 result, which will boost EPS RM 2- RM 2.5. The company cash level, balance sheet and NTA, all have yet to reflect at current share price level.

Although stock price wont reflect totally the above Q2 profit on share price due to projection next Q3 downtrend EPS, but it will at least reflect certain fraction of above profit impact on stock price.

The significant boost in profit in Q2 (if EPS is RM 2-2.5) is already enough to cover next 4-5 year normalize EPS. Furthermore, the forward valuation and dividend also attractive to support the current share price as future normalize crack spread still give good profit margin, is profitable business + forward interest expense significant decrease,

1 day ago

hng33

Don forget PetronM aside as refiner, also possess valuable 750 retail station, each own underground storage tank for petrol/diesel, still selling at elevated RM 4.5/l

1 day ago

hng33

PetronM in long term valuation should be based on sum of part

1. Refinery business (30%)- valuation 4x (cyclical business)
2. Petrol station (70%) - valuation 10x (retail business)

1 day ago

Rabbit2

The announcement is available at Petron Corporation website.

1 day ago

hng33


As prices of finished products further surged in the second quarter, refining cracks also strengthened. Petron benefited from the strong regional refining margins with higher production at the refiner....

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-doubles-consolidated-net-income-in-...

1 day ago

hng33

Petron corporation's detail Q2 result have yet to release. Its result encompasse Philippine, Malaysia, Singapore and business range from crude oil. refined product, fuel, and marketing station in various countries.

Still need to wait for local PetronM to release result for more insight detail

1 day ago

AzlanIshtiqal

Masih pegang dan tunggu ia mengumumkan Q2 keputusan yg cemerlang

1 day ago

hng33

RON 97 decrease just another 10sen to RM 4.40/l. These level is still RM 1.00/ l higher if compared to last year level RM 3.40 when crack spread at 7-8.

For information, Highest RON 97 at 4.90/l recorded when crack spread trade above 30.

Slow decreasing petrol price as compared to rapid normalize crack spread (input cost) offer great lag time arbitrary gain for PetroM total 750 nationwide petrol station, each have underground storage tank. Input cost rapid decrease, but, selling prices still retain elevated level.

23 hours ago

hng33

Aug 2022
Crude oil USD94-96
Crack spread 7-8
RON 97 selling price RM 4.40/liter

Dec 2021
Crude oil 94-96
Crack spread 7-8
RON 97 selling price was RM 3.40/litre

Remark: Gov delay in adjusting retail petrol pricing, benefiting PetronM total 750 retail station

20 hours ago

888STOCK888

Sialang lo

9 hours ago

Zhuge_Liang

Posted by Sslee > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

D1N1!
SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX
9.759.
Singapore Mogas 95 future quote = 106.21
Singapore Mogas 92 future quote = 102.46
The difference = Around 3.75.

1 barrel of Mogas 95 = 106.21
1 barrel of crude oil = 89.00
Gross profit = 17.21
Refinery cost = 3.00 to 4.00 per barrel (according to goggle)
Net profit margin = 14.21 to 13.21 (average 13.71)

If you add 3.75 to 9.76 = 13.51
My sifu said, you should add 3.75 to Singapore Mogas 92 crack spread margin in order to be accurate.
I get permission from my sifu to post this information for benefit of all readers here.

8 hours ago

The St. Goreng

Half day of trading. value traded only RM33k. Lame stock it seems no more monkey shouting

8 hours ago

AzlanIshtiqal

Masih pegang dan menantikan ia mengumumkan keputusan Q2 yg cemerlang

6 hours ago

abc333

货源归边。货到散户还是庄?

6 hours ago

hng33

be patients, just another 2 week for Q2 result release. The exceptional record breaking earning will leap up significantly balance sheet, NTA, cash hoard, future dividend payout

2 hours ago

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