SD GUTHRIE BERHAD
KLSE (MYR): SDG (5285)
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Last Price
4.80
Today's Change
-0.10 (2.04%)
Day's Change
4.78 - 4.92
Trading Volume
4,310,800
Financial
Market Cap
33,195 Million
NOSH
6,916 Million
Latest Quarter
30-Sep-2024 [#3]
Announcement Date
20-Nov-2024
Next Quarter
31-Dec-2024
Est. Ann. Date
22-Feb-2025
Est. Ann. Due Date
01-Mar-2025
QoQ | YoY
84.58% | -36.75%
Revenue | NP to SH
19,854,000.000 | 1,592,000.000
RPS | P/RPS
287.09 Cent | 1.67
EPS | P/E | EY
23.02 Cent | 20.85 | 4.80%
DPS | DY | Payout %
10.70 Cent | 2.23% | 46.48%
NAPS | P/NAPS
2.47 | 1.94
QoQ | YoY
-21.85% | -28.35%
NP Margin | ROE
8.92% | 9.32%
F.Y. | Ann. Date
30-Sep-2024 | 20-Nov-2024
Latest Audited Result
31-Dec-2023
Announcement Date
25-Apr-2024
Next Audited Result
31-Dec-2024
Est. Ann. Date
25-Apr-2025
Est. Ann. Due Date
29-Jun-2025
Revenue | NP to SH
18,428,000.000 | 1,860,000.000
RPS | P/RPS
266.47 Cent | 1.80
EPS | P/E | EY
26.90 Cent | 17.85 | 5.60%
DPS | DY | Payout %
15.00 Cent | 3.13% | 55.77%
NAPS | P/NAPS
2.57 | 1.87
YoY
-25.24%
NP Margin | ROE
11.03% | 10.47%
F.Y. | Ann. Date
31-Dec-2023 | 22-Feb-2024
Revenue | NP to SH
19,432,000.000 | 1,856,000.000
RPS | P/RPS
280.98 Cent | 1.71
EPS | P/E | EY
26.80 Cent | 17.89 | 5.59%
DPS | DY | Payout %
-
NAPS | P/NAPS
-
QoQ | YoY
48.24% | -16.14%
NP Margin | ROE
10.48% | 10.87%
F.Y. | Ann. Date
30-Sep-2024 | 20-Nov-2024
Show?
| Last 10 FY Result | |||||||||||||
| AQR | T4Q | 31/12/23 | 31/12/22 | 31/12/21 | 31/12/20 | 31/12/19 | 31/12/18 | 30/06/18 | 31/12/17 | 30/06/17 | CAGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19,432,000 | 19,854,000 | 18,428,000 | 21,030,000 | 18,695,000 | 13,081,000 | 12,062,000 | 6,543,000 | 14,369,000 | 7,626,000 | 14,779,000 | 3.44% | |
| PBT | 2,746,666 | 2,455,000 | 2,752,000 | 3,492,000 | 3,602,000 | 1,991,000 | 251,000 | 457,000 | 2,377,000 | 1,876,000 | 4,031,000 | -5.69% | |
| Tax | -710,666 | -684,000 | -719,000 | -809,000 | -1,109,000 | -628,000 | -298,000 | -145,000 | -492,000 | -340,000 | -479,000 | 6.44% | |
| NP | 2,036,000 | 1,771,000 | 2,033,000 | 2,683,000 | 2,493,000 | 1,363,000 | -47,000 | 312,000 | 1,885,000 | 1,536,000 | 3,552,000 | -8.21% | |
| - | |||||||||||||
| NP to SH | 1,856,000 | 1,592,000 | 1,860,000 | 2,488,000 | 2,257,000 | 1,185,000 | 122,000 | 244,000 | 1,727,000 | 1,448,000 | 3,507,000 | -9.28% | |
| - | |||||||||||||
| Tax Rate | 25.87% | 27.86% | 26.13% | 23.17% | 30.79% | 31.54% | 118.73% | 31.73% | 20.70% | 18.12% | 11.88% | - | |
| Total Cost | 17,396,000 | 18,083,000 | 16,395,000 | 18,347,000 | 16,202,000 | 11,718,000 | 12,109,000 | 6,231,000 | 12,484,000 | 6,090,000 | 11,227,000 | 5.99% | |
| - | |||||||||||||
| Net Worth | 17,081,815 | 17,081,815 | 17,773,386 | 16,390,242 | 15,214,572 | 13,631,459 | 13,287,229 | 13,125,929 | 13,670,009 | 13,664,225 | 12,437,616 | 5.63% | |
| Equity | |||||||||||||
| AQR | T4Q | 31/12/23 | 31/12/22 | 31/12/21 | 31/12/20 | 31/12/19 | 31/12/18 | 30/06/18 | 31/12/17 | 30/06/17 | CAGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Worth | 17,081,815 | 17,081,815 | 17,773,386 | 16,390,242 | 15,214,572 | 13,631,459 | 13,287,229 | 13,125,929 | 13,670,009 | 13,664,225 | 12,437,616 | 5.63% | |
| NOSH | 6,915,714 | 6,915,714 | 6,915,714 | 6,915,714 | 6,915,714 | 6,884,575 | 6,884,575 | 6,801,000 | 6,801,000 | 6,798,122 | 6,796,511 | 0.26% | |
| Ratio Analysis | |||||||||||||
| AQR | T4Q | 31/12/23 | 31/12/22 | 31/12/21 | 31/12/20 | 31/12/19 | 31/12/18 | 30/06/18 | 31/12/17 | 30/06/17 | CAGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NP Margin | 10.48% | 8.92% | 11.03% | 12.76% | 13.34% | 10.42% | -0.39% | 4.77% | 13.12% | 20.14% | 24.03% | - | |
| ROE | 10.87% | 9.32% | 10.47% | 15.18% | 14.83% | 8.69% | 0.92% | 1.86% | 12.63% | 10.60% | 28.20% | - | |
| Per Share | |||||||||||||
| AQR | T4Q | 31/12/23 | 31/12/22 | 31/12/21 | 31/12/20 | 31/12/19 | 31/12/18 | 30/06/18 | 31/12/17 | 30/06/17 | CAGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPS | 280.98 | 287.09 | 266.47 | 304.09 | 270.33 | 190.00 | 175.20 | 96.21 | 211.28 | 112.18 | 217.45 | 3.17% | |
| EPS | 26.80 | 23.02 | 26.90 | 36.00 | 32.60 | 17.20 | -2.90 | 3.60 | 25.40 | 21.30 | 51.60 | -9.52% | |
| DPS | 6.20 | 10.70 | 15.00 | 16.04 | 22.41 | 9.44 | 1.00 | 1.70 | 17.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 | - | |
| NAPS | 2.47 | 2.47 | 2.57 | 2.37 | 2.20 | 1.98 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 2.01 | 2.01 | 1.83 | 5.35% | |
| Adjusted Per Share Value based on latest NOSH - 6,915,714 | |||||||||||||
| AQR | T4Q | 31/12/23 | 31/12/22 | 31/12/21 | 31/12/20 | 31/12/19 | 31/12/18 | 30/06/18 | 31/12/17 | 30/06/17 | CAGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPS | 280.98 | 287.09 | 266.47 | 304.09 | 270.33 | 189.15 | 174.41 | 94.61 | 207.77 | 110.27 | 213.70 | 3.44% | |
| EPS | 26.80 | 23.02 | 26.90 | 36.00 | 32.60 | 17.13 | 1.76 | 3.53 | 24.97 | 20.94 | 50.71 | -9.28% | |
| DPS | 6.20 | 10.70 | 15.00 | 16.04 | 22.41 | 9.40 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 17.21 | 3.44 | 0.00 | - | |
| NAPS | 2.47 | 2.47 | 2.57 | 2.37 | 2.20 | 1.9711 | 1.9213 | 1.898 | 1.9767 | 1.9758 | 1.7985 | 5.63% | |
| Price Multiplier on Financial Quarter End Date | |||||||||||||
| AQR | T4Q | 31/12/23 | 31/12/22 | 31/12/21 | 31/12/20 | 31/12/19 | 31/12/18 | 30/06/18 | 31/12/17 | 30/06/17 | CAGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | 30/09/24 | 30/09/24 | 29/12/23 | 30/12/22 | 31/12/21 | 31/12/20 | 31/12/19 | 31/12/18 | 29/06/18 | 29/12/17 | - | - | |
| Price | 4.79 | 4.79 | 4.46 | 4.65 | 3.76 | 4.99 | 5.45 | 4.76 | 5.33 | 6.00 | 0.00 | - | |
| P/RPS | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.53 | 1.39 | 2.63 | 3.11 | 4.95 | 2.52 | 5.35 | 0.00 | - | |
| P/EPS | 17.85 | 20.81 | 16.58 | 12.93 | 11.52 | 28.99 | 307.55 | 132.68 | 20.99 | 28.17 | 0.00 | - | |
| EY | 5.60 | 4.81 | 6.03 | 7.74 | 8.68 | 3.45 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 4.76 | 3.55 | 0.00 | - | |
| DY | 1.29 | 2.23 | 3.36 | 3.45 | 5.96 | 1.89 | 0.18 | 0.36 | 3.28 | 0.58 | 0.00 | - | |
| P/NAPS | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.74 | 1.96 | 1.71 | 2.52 | 2.82 | 2.47 | 2.65 | 2.99 | 0.00 | - | |
| Price Multiplier on Announcement Date | |||||||||||||
| AQR | T4Q | 31/12/23 | 31/12/22 | 31/12/21 | 31/12/20 | 31/12/19 | 31/12/18 | 30/06/18 | 31/12/17 | 30/06/17 | CAGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | 20/11/24 | 20/11/24 | 22/02/24 | 17/02/23 | 18/02/22 | 18/02/21 | 28/02/20 | 28/02/19 | 30/08/18 | - | - | - | |
| Price | 4.90 | 4.90 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.90 | 4.95 | 4.91 | 5.11 | 5.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | |
| P/RPS | 1.74 | 1.71 | 1.69 | 1.42 | 1.81 | 2.61 | 2.80 | 5.31 | 2.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | |
| P/EPS | 18.26 | 21.29 | 16.73 | 12.04 | 15.01 | 28.76 | 277.08 | 142.43 | 21.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | |
| EY | 5.48 | 4.70 | 5.98 | 8.31 | 6.66 | 3.48 | 0.36 | 0.70 | 4.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | |
| DY | 1.27 | 2.18 | 3.33 | 3.70 | 4.57 | 1.91 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 3.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | |
| P/NAPS | 1.98 | 1.98 | 1.75 | 1.83 | 2.23 | 2.50 | 2.54 | 2.65 | 2.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | |
PBT = Profit before Tax, NP = Net Profit, NP to SH = Net Profit Attributable to Shareholder, Div = Dividend, NP Margin = Net Profit Margin, ROE = Return on Equity, NOSH = Number of Shares, RPS = Revenue per Share, EPS = Earning Per Share, DPS = Dividend Per Share, NAPS = Net Asset Per Share, EOQ = End of Quarter, ANN = Announcement, P/RPS = Price/Revenue per Share, P/EPS = Price/Earning per Share, P/NAPS = Price/Net Asset per Share, EY = Earning Yield, DY = Dividend Yield.
NOSH is estimated based on the NP to SH and EPS. Div is an estimated figure based on the DPS and NOSH. Net Worth is an estimated figure based on the NAPS and NOSH.
Div Payout %, NP Margin, ROE, DY, QoQ ⃤ & YoY ⃤ figures in Percentage; RPS, EPS & DPS's figures in Cent; and NAPS's figures in Dollar.
All figures in '000 unless specified.
Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 50 of 1,049 comments
GLC plantations stocks:-
KLK
Genting Plant
IOI Corp
SimeP
United Plant
2023-05-24 16:25
Nomura Asset Management acquired 200,000
CIMB-Principal Asset Management 130,000
2023-08-08 15:13
Crude palm oil prices face an upside risk due to the continuing Russia-Ukraine war, Affin Hwang IB analysts Nadia Aquidah, Steven Chan and Andrew Lim say in a note. Uncertainties due to the war can disrupt global grain supply, pushing vegetable oils prices higher, they say. Global warming can also disrupt crop production yields and make prices volatile, they add. The analysts maintain CPO price estimates for 2023 at MYR3,800/ton-MYR4,000/ton and for 2024 at MYR4,200/ton-MYR4,400/ton. They reckon that the plantation sector's earnings will grow by around 4%-5% with every MYR100/ton increase in CPO prices. They maintain a neutral rating on the sector and select Kuala Lumpur Kepong and Jaya Tiasa Holdings as their top picks
2023-08-09 20:10
5285 SIMEPLT, SIME DARBY PLANTATION BERHAD - +
Changes in Sub. S-hldr s Int (Section 138 of CA 2016)
5 Sep 2023, 13:20
Particular of Substantial Shareholder
Name EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD
Address 5th Floor, EPF Tower No. 1, Persiaran Kwasa Utama 40150 Shah Alam Selangor
Malaysia
NRIC/Passport No/Company No EPF Act 1991
Nationality/Country of Incorporation Malaysia
Descriptions (Class & Nominal Value) Ordinary Shares
Name & Address of Registered Holder You are advised to read the entire contents of the announcement or
attachment. To read the entire contents of the announcement or attachment,
please access the Bursa website at http://www.bursamalaysia.com
Change Detail
Change Date 30 Aug 2023
Change Reason
Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Employees Provident Fund
Board(Disposal of 500,000 shares on 29 August 2023)
Nature of Interest 1012319889
Transaction Detail
Transaction Type Date of Change No of Securities Price Transacted (RM)
Disposed 29 Aug 2023 500,000 0.000
No of Securities after Change
Direct Interest (units) 910,108,490
Direct Interest (%) 13.16
Indirect Interest (units) 102,211,399
Indirect Interest (%) 1.478
Total Share after Change 1,012,319,889
Remarks You are advised to read the entire contents of the announcement or
attachment. To read the entire contents of the announcement or attachment,
please access the Bursa website at http://www.bursamalaysia.com
N202309053600066EN
2023-09-05 14:05
Indeed, prediction by Dorab Mistry same time last year has precisely happened today. Will his prediction comes true again next year?
https://www.sinchew.com.my/news/20231104/finance/5103631
2023-11-04 12:58
AT LONG LAST: LTAT OFFICIAL ACCEPTANCE FORM TO TAKE BPLANT PRIVATE IS OUT, What should you do next? Calvin Tan
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2023-11-18-story-h-214372654-AT_LONG_LAST_LTAT_OFFICIAL_ACCEPTANCE_FORM_TO_TAKE_BPLANT_PRIVATE_IS_OU
2023-11-18 00:15
Yes see Pm Corp
Calvin still holding some
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2023-09-20-story-h-239183963-10_ANNIVERSARY_IN_i3_INVESTOR_FORUM_LOOKING_AT_PM_CORP_PERFORMACE_Calvi
2023-11-18 00:26
Sime Darby Plantation Bhd's significant Q3 net profit surge underscores effective management and successful strategies, positioning the company for ongoing growth https://www.facebook.com/groups/1601111216784121/posts/3847315868830300
2023-11-27 15:42
Since its listed on Bursa Malaysia in Nov 2017, its revenue grew at 24 % CAGR (2018 to Sep LTM 2023). Over the same period net income grew at 56 % CAGR. But its total assets only grew at less than 3 % CAGR.
So, is this a growth company? What do you look at when assessing whether a company is a growth one? Professor Damodaran opined that we should link growth to the business fundamentals. Growth needs to be funded and can be estimated from the fundamental equation of growth = Return X Reinvestment rate.
I estimated that over the past 5 years, its Return as measured by the NOPAT/Capital averaged 6%. Its Reinvestment rate average 12%. Growth was less than 1 %. So is this a growth company?
Why is growth important from an fundamental investor perspective? This is because the intrinsic value depends on what you estimate as the growth rate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KhboTCMdEg
2024-01-14 09:31
*Malaysia Plantations*
*The unsung heroes of the nation (and the world)*
11 March marks the 4th anniversary of COVID-19 pandemic. We pay tribute to the plantation sector that has contributed immensely during the pandemic. While not undermining the sacrifices by the front-liners and others in the fight against COVID-19, this sector has played its part in ensuring food security, job security, and health security not just for the nation but the world over. Despite rising cost challenges and falling output, the sector still made huge monetary contribution of >MYR23b over the past 4 years in various forms of direct and indirect taxes, and contributions.
*>MYR23b in “social” contribution to the grateful for*
Between 2020 and 2023, the plantation sector has contributed approx. MYR6.1b in windfall profit levy, MYR3.7b in export duties, MYR1.3b in MPOB CESS (see Fig.1), MYR0.2b in Prosperity Taxes, >MYR6b in Sabah and Sarawak Sales Taxes (our back-of-the-envelope estimates), and easily >MYR6b in corporate income taxes and individual taxes (by the smallholders) to the Malaysian government . The sector is said to be among the highest tax contributor in terms of total taxes (including windfall profit levy, export duties, CESS, and Sabah and Sarawak Sales Taxes, in addition to corporate taxes). Monies collected by the government were channelled to (among others) nation building and running of many social programmes including free COVID vaccinations given to the people and cash handouts given to the needy during the pandemic.
*Food & health security roles often taken for granted*
Palm oil holds more than 50% market share in the global vegetable oils trade. Hence, its continuous availability is crucial to global food security as well as health security. Throughout the pandemic, palm oil exports never stopped as the government allowed palm oil cultivation to proceed.
Besides food use, the continuous availability of palm oil and palm products also meant there was the much-needed ingredients to make personal cares and cleaning products such hand wash, soap, laundry detergents, hand sanitisers, etc that the world desperately needed in its fight against the highly infectious COVID-19 virus.
*Job security for the locals as well as guest workers*
Many people lost their jobs at the start of the pandemic and had to draw down their hard-earned life savings to make ends meet. Prior to the pandemic, the sector has a strong workforce of 437,400 in Malaysia comprising local and guest workers. During the pandemic, the plantation sector was among the few granted special approval by the government to operate. Social distancing at workplace was inherent in the estates given that one worker typically covers more than 10 hectares of estates, providing a naturally safe working environment. Workers were even given free COVID vaccinations by their employers. At the height of the pandemic, outsiders had limited access to the staffs’ housing quarters and estate operations to ensure the safety of their workers and families. While country borders were mostly closed initially, guest workers remained employed throughout and were paid decent wages (plus incentives) that allowed them to repatriate the much-needed income to provide for their families back home (presumably equally affected by the pandemic).
Well Done Guys!
2024-03-11 10:48
Fantastic news for Sime plant
Simeplant has been chosen to spearhead an industrial park in Kerian Perak
1,000 acres will be designated as Industrial park like Batu Kawan and Kulim High tech park
Sime plant world number one with over 1 Million acres of plantation lands
in Kerian Alone Simeplant got more than 90,000 acres bigger than entire Island of Penang at 72,900 acres
and cost of these Sime plant lands got a book value of only Rm12,800 per acre
Ltat sold 1200 acres of Lands in Kulim for Rm400 mil or about Rm330,000 an acre
So Simeplant also sitting on "gold mine " lands
2024-05-07 15:10
Posted by Pinky > 35 seconds ago | Report Abuse
UTDPLT wins all
No Pinky
I checked Uplant lands
1) Mostly lands in Teluk Anson
Flood zone and little commercial value
2) Pantai Remis
Lands so so
So UPlant only earns by good harvest
Its lands are only mediocre in value
2024-05-07 22:56
U buy Plantation company hoping it to develop it into properties for sale?
Misplaced priorities.
2024-05-14 11:58
Plantations can be potentially significant renewable energy players in mid to long to long term . Palm oil wastes to energy, vast landbank for solar energy, CPO for biodiesel etc ,
2024-06-15 12:46
Guthrie's planters those days were very innovative eg. OP Mechanisation but not now.
2024-06-15 13:02
Malaysian palm oil exports and inventory levels in July surpassed market expectations, with robust exports contributing to a reduction in stockpiles. Exports surged by 39.9% month-on-month. This increase was primarily due to higher orders from key importing countries, such as India and China, for July shipments. Palm oil production has resumed its upward trend, rising 14.0% month-on-month in July to 1.84 million tonnes, signaling the onset of the seasonal high-production phase.
Kenanga also maintains a Neutral outlook with a strong upside catalysts, such as CPO prices surging to trade between RM4,000 - RM4,500
Let’s look at the general gross profit for Crude Palm Oil (CPO) in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Malaysia
Gross Profit: The gross profit for Malaysian CPO producers can vary, but it generally ranges from RM 1,500 to RM 2,000 per tonne. This is based on production costs of around RM 2,000 per tonne and average CPO prices ranging from RM 3,500 to RM 4,000 per tonne.
Indonesia
Gross Profit: Indonesian CPO producers typically enjoy higher gross profits due to lower production costs. The gross profit generally ranges from USD 400 to USD 600 per tonne. This is based on production costs of around USD 300 per tonne and average CPO prices ranging from USD 700 to USD 900 per tonne.
As you can see the Indonesian Farmers are happily dancing while the Malaysian Farmers will need to monitor their production cost with the 52% increase in Diesel Price in Peninsular Malaysia. Hopefully the volume in revenue can cover this cost.
2024-08-18 23:57
Johnzhang Plantations can be potentially significant renewable energy players in mid to long to long term . Palm oil wastes to energy, vast landbank for solar energy, CPO for biodiesel etc ,
15/06/2024 12:46 PM
+1
Moving forward…
Time for our plantation to break new frontiers to cover these 52% increase in Production cost. Beside CPO, Plantations can be potentially significant renewable energy players in mid to long to long term. Palm oil wastes to energy, vast landbank for solar energy, CPO for biodiesel like B20 and B60 etc ,
2024-08-19 00:11
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2024/09/14/india-hikes-import-tax-on-palm-oil-other-edible-oils-by-20/
look like pmx talk kok on his visit to India : https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/nasional/2024/08/1287269/anwar-tiba-di-new-delhi-perkukuh-hubungan-67-tahun-malaysia-india
no point visit india then india impost 20% tax on malaysia palm oil
2 months ago
World best manage palm oil company - utdp toward $30
World largest palm oil company - SDG shall breaking $6
1 week ago
SD Guthrie - Strategic Plans Positive for the Medium Term; BUY
Date:
2024-11-12
Firm:
RHB-OSK
Stock:
SDG
Price Target:
5.75
Price Call:
BUY
Last Price:
5.14
Upside/Downside:
+0.61 (11.87%)
Maintain BUY, with new SOP-based MYR5.75 TP from MYR5.35, 15% upside and c.2% FY25F yield. With CPO prices crossing the MYR5,000/tonne mark amidst a combination of fundamental and speculative factors, we believe share prices have yet to catch up with CPO prices. SD Guthrie may not be a pure planter but its diversification strategies are expected to boost its valuation in the medium term.
CPO prices continue rising; now at >MYR5,000/tonne (+15% in the past month). We believe this run-up is due to four catalysts: i) The spike in crude oil prices (+18% in two months) due to heightened geopolitical tensions; ii) weather issues in South America resulting in slower-than-expected soybean planting progress in the initial few weeks of planting – although this has since caught up. This raised soybean oil prices by 14% in the last three weeks; iii) the Thai Government’s ban on palm oil exports until year-end to try to control rising prices of cooking oil. Although Thailand is not a huge producer or exporter of palm oil, this has affected sentiment; iv) (more speculative in nature) Donald Trump’s win in the US General Elections. In the 2016 election when Trump won, soybean and PO prices rallied 17% and 28% a few months before the election. Post-election, prices rose further, by 10% and 11% to a peak of USD832/tonne and MYR3,306/tonne from end-2016 to early 2017.
Rest of 2024 to be susceptible to speculative activities… We believe prices are unlikely to decline to <MYR4,000/tonne in the near future as geopolitical risks remain very much in play, which would also keep crude oil prices elevated and speculative forces active. In addition, once Trump’s 2.0 policies are made known, prices may settle down and come off their highs.
…while fundamentals for 2025 are improving, we believe the culmination of the low output and stock levels in Indonesia in 2024, increasing biodiesel mandates in Indonesia in 2025, and tightening supplies of sunseed and rapeseed & canola in 2025, will lead to a more apparent deficit in global oils and fats in 2025. This will, in turn, lead to stronger vegetable oil prices in 2025, with stock/usage ratio for the 17 oils & fats falling to a 15-year low of 12.4% in 2025 (vs the historical average of 13.6%).
As such, we raise our CPO price assumptions for 2024 to MYR4,100/tonne (from MYR3,900), for 2025 to MYR4,300/tonne (from MYR3,800), and for 2026 to MYR4,100/tonne (from MYR3,800). Overall, we expect prices to stay higher in 1H25, trading at MYR4,400-4,800/tonne before moderating in 2H25 to MYR4,000-4,400/tonne during the seasonal peak. We also update earnings for new in-house forex assumptions and new export tax levies.
Maintain BUY with MYR5.75 TP, after raising our FY24F-26F earnings by 12%, 16% and 11%. Our TP includes a 0% ESG premium/discount. SDG’s diversification strategies are expected to bear fruit in the medium term, boosting earnings and its valuation.
Source: RHB Securities Research - 12 Nov 2024
1 week ago
Blogs Headlines
RHB Investment Research Reports
Plantation - Sector Yet to Catch Up to CPO Prices; U/G to O/W
rhbinvest
Publish date: Tue, 12 Nov 2024, 10:22 AM
Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral; Top Picks: Johor Plantations (JPG), Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP), SD Guthrie (SDG), Bumitama Agri (BAL) and London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP). With CPO prices crossing MYR5,000/tonne amidst a blend of fundamental and speculative factors, we believe share prices have yet to catch up and are due for a rerating. Share prices are still reflecting CPO prices of <MYR4,500/tonne. We raise our CPO price assumptions and maintain our pure planter Top Picks.
CPO prices continue rising; now at >MYR5,000/tonne (+15% in last one month). We believe this run-up is due to four catalysts: i) The spike in crude oil prices (+18% in two months) due to heightened geopolitical tensions; ii) weather issues in South America resulting in slower-than-expected soybean planting progress in the initial few weeks of planting – although this has since caught up. This raised soybean oil prices 14% in the last three weeks; iii) the Thai Government’s ban on palm oil exports until year-end to try to control rising prices of cooking oil. Although Thailand is not a huge producer or exporter of palm oil, this has affected sentiment; iv) (more speculative in nature) Donald Trump’s win in the US General Elections. In the 2016 election when Trump won, soybean and PO prices rallied 17% and 28% a few months before the election. Post-election, prices rose further, by 10% and 11% to a peak of USD832/tonne and MYR3,306/tonne from end-2016 to early 2017.
Rest of 2024 to be susceptible to speculative activities… We believe prices are unlikely to decline to <MYR4,000/tonne in the near future as geopolitical risks remain very much in play, which would also keep crude oil prices elevated and speculative forces active. In addition, once Trump’s 2.0 policies are made known, prices may settle down and come off their highs.
…while fundamentals for 2025 are improving, we believe the culmination of the low output and stock levels in Indonesia in 2024, increasing biodiesel mandates in Indonesia in 2025 and tightening supplies of sunseed and rapeseed & canola in 2025, will lead to a more apparent deficit in global oils and fats in 2025. This will in turn lead to stronger prices for vegetable oil prices in 2025, with stock/usage ratio for the 17 oils & fats falling to a 15-year low of 12.4% in 2025 (vs the historical average of 13.6%).
As such, we raise our CPO price assumptions for 2024 to MYR4,100/tonne (from MYR3,900), for 2025 to MYR4,300/tonne (from MYR3,800), and for 2026 to MYR4,100/tonne (from MYR3,800). Overall, we expect prices to stay higher in 1H25, trading at MYR4,400-4,800/tonne before moderating in 2H25 to MYR4,000-4,400/tonne during the seasonal peak.
Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. We believe with higher and more sticky prices in 2025, the sector will finally be rerated upwards. We switched our Top Picks on 11 Oct to purer planters and this strategy is maintained. With the change in CPO price assumptions, we have upgraded BAL to BUY (from Neutral). Our Top Picks are now JPG, SOP, SDG, BAL and LSIP.
Source: RHB Securities Research - 12 Nov 2024
1 week ago
World largest glove top glove during the peak mania hitted $28
World largest plantation SDG during this peak shall hit $8 if not $28
1 week ago
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If not a GLC company, should be limit down today.
2023-05-24 16:04