LOTTE CHEMICAL TITAN HOLDING BERHAD
KLSE (MYR): LCTITAN (5284)
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Last Price
1.00
Today's Change
-0.02 (1.96%)
Day's Change
0.995 - 1.02
Trading Volume
4,725,600
IPO Info
File Name: LCT - Prospectus (Part 3).pdf Download
Discussions
16 people like this. Showing 50 of 12,633 comments
it will trigger mandatory takeover offer once shareholder sold major stake in the company.. do you think they will sell at RM1.2 with net asset value RM5? Even sell at RM3 is considered cheap... why not buy some and keep now?
1 month ago
If I want to sell you one company that is going to make heavy losses in a foreseeable future, how much price will you willing to buy..?
1 month ago
If prices stay low, it means the sale is unlikely to happen. Don't hold your breath for this to happen.
1 month ago
If there is a sale, for sure the price will shoot up. But market is saying it won't happen, despite opinion and speculative pieces.
1 month ago
Current low price is not about losses. It's something else.
Why?
Look at past 7 consecutive quarter loss - total is only 70 sen. Averaging 10 sen per quarter loss.
This is tiny.
The current gap between NTA and current price is at least RM4.
For this gap to be bridged, that's 40 consecutive quarters.
That's 10 years!
It needs 10 years of consecutive losses, to bring the NTA down to current price.
So, to me, it's not about losses.
It's definitely something else.
1 month ago
If I have 10 years to work with and if I'm LCTITAN malaysian management, here's what I do.
Next year, throw in the kitchen sink.
Book all losses and book huge loss provisions to report the biggest mother of all losses in 2024.
Book it so big and write off so much that you engineer sustainable earnings over the next 3 years by unlocking provisions.
The stock will crash and rise back up.
But right now, it needs to shake off a lot of weak holders first.
Still early stages.
1 month ago
LINE Project
LOTTE Chemical Titan Holding Berhad’s (“LCT”) strategic expansion initiative to develop an Integrated Petrochemical Facility (“IPF”) known as the LOTTE Chemical Indonesia New Ethylene Project or the LINE Project, through its subsidiary, PT LOTTE Chemical Indonesia (“LCI’) is aimed to increase the company’s production capacity and realise LCT’s vision to be a Top-Tier Petrochemical Company in Southeast Asia.
The joint venture project between LCT and LOTTE Chemical Corporation (“LCC”), will develop a 1 million tonne per year naphtha cracker and other related downstream facilities in Merak, Cilegon, Banten Province, Indonesia.
With the completion of the LINE Project, the enlarged facility will provide enhanced operational efficiencies and significantly increase LCT’s production capacity through integration of the production process in LCT’s existing plants in Indonesia.
LCT believes that the LINE Project is an attractive business proposition due to Indonesia’s dependency on petrochemical imports from other Southeast Asia countries because of its insufficient domestic production. The country is also expected to remain a large net importer of polyolefins and the domestic plastic demand gap is expected to further widen following the rising population and healthy consumption growth.
1 month ago
The LINE project includes the development of a cracker plant that will use naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas as its feedstock to produce, among others, 1,000 kilo tonnes per annum (KTA) of ethylene and 520KTA of propylene.
“The completion of the loan facility for the LINE project marked an important milestone with the finalisation of the remaining capital funding for the project.
“The LINE project serves as a key strategic expansion for the group to solidify LCT’s position as a top-tier petrochemical company in South-East Asia,” Park said.
He said the project also provides synergistic advantages to the group’s three existing standalone polyethylene plants, which are in the vicinity of the project, by reducing feedstock transportation and logistics costs, as well as higher operational and cost efficiencies.
“As Indonesia is a net importer of petrochemical products, the project will enable us to capitalise on the anticipated increase in demand for our products in the country,”
Upon completion, Park said, the production capacity of the group will increase by 65% to 5,878KTA from its existing production capacity of 3,568KTA.
1 month ago
Without disrespect to any parties. LCtitan was previously taken private with a low valuations. Against this back drop there is always a strong possibility of the Board to follow or use this route {i. e. to delist the company} kitchen sinking exercise is permissible and fastest means to bring down the valuations} Or the worst case scenario as the expense of minorities to sell off the Indonesia plant at a loss while LCtitan Malaysia carries the losses. Hopefully the LCtitan board would not resort to this underhand tactics. The losses can be utilised as tax credits or against future earnongs
1 month ago
The 4 IB's covering Lctitan has given an underperform ratings for FY 2024/2025. Last revised TP is set between a high of 1.35 and a low of 93 sen . Consensus target price is at 1.08
1 month ago
MACD support line park at 1.10. what to watch out is their next coming quarter result announcement. Only if the management do a kitchen sinking clean up then it's going to be a very bad Qtr result
3 weeks ago
Better sell if no improvement ....wasting money to put into company that nothing to be done.
2 weeks ago
Difficult to predict what the future holds for LCTITAN if their own captain decides to jump ship or sell off their factory.
2 weeks ago
high oil price should be bad to this counter also, as it is their materials.... !!!
2 weeks ago
For those trading LCTITAN using technical charts, all concerns expressed are fair points.
This week has closed lower than 1.10.
- Yes, the technical bias is downwards.
- Yes, nobody knows where the next bottom is because in a downtrend, supports tend to get broken.
- And if one backtest to Mar 2019 when the strong 4.10-4.20 support got broken the next 12 months was very painful.
So, what should we do. A few other observations:
1. I am underweighted - my neutral position size is 3% of my portfolio and it is now 2.1%. This % comes down because LCTITAN fall at a faster rate than my total portfolio with other stocks.
2. If we go back to March 2019, there was still a high probability win when we combine technical tools with our fundamental beliefs on this stock. When it fall, let it fall until it finds a new base and then accumulate following position size rules. If we are disciplined, the next 24 months also turned out a winner.
3. Back in 2019, the NTA was higher than Price but not much higher. Hence a big fall is not unexpected.
4. Today, the NTA was very much higher than RM1 vs NTA > RM5 - huge cash converted to fixed assets. Less likely for further fall. In fact, this time we see the break below 1.10 has lower volume, suggesting less belief of a much larger fall. Nobody knows of course. Small initial reactions can sometimes gather larger volumes to push down, but given the huge gap and there is a business behind this stock, the odds are less of this happening.
5. This suggests Principle of Alternation is more likely to occur in 2024-2026, than 2019-2021.
6. In other words, as I have anticipated and prepared for this upcoming move, I continue to execute my strategy i.e. lower prices is an accumulation zone, but not greater than my neutral position size.
7. This is because, nobody knows if this stock is going to zero - I think 99% chance it won't, but I am never certain but odds are extremely good that in the next 2-3 years, I will win if I stick to my fundamental + technical strategy. The win size though may not be large (it depends on market) and the time to take to win is uncertain. But I am confident with my approach in the long run for 100 stocks, because Technical Analysis on its own has limitations.
Everyone should have their own strategy. Good luck over the next 3 years.
2 weeks ago
Good explanation. Whether using technical or trend line projections. Always set your own limit not to forget your own risk appetite.
2 weeks ago
And your own time line investment strategy. For long term holdings{ 2-3 years} or short term trading 3-6 mths tine frame
2 weeks ago
Good sharing DividendGuy67
strongly agree with point 07.
fundamental + technical strategy
currently Lctitan's future is highly uncertain
at least for now...
2 weeks ago
Losses for the 1st quarter FY 24 comes in at - 178 million lower vs Y-o-Y. LCtitan has lost money consecutively for the last 9 quarters
4 days ago
The first quarter losses of - 178 milllion is slightly below the loss of - 225 million reported in the previous qtr. Nevertheless based on what was reported by the press. LC titan is expected to face worse off in the 2nd quarter ending June24 with lower sales volume and weak product demand. With demand muted and a supply gut Analyst expected LCtitan core losses to further widenen. The 1st Qtr losses ending March 24 was narrower due to the LCtitan has capitalised 136 million in interest expenses relating to the loan taken for their Indonesia plant expansion. In other words the accounting side have sidestep the interest from the P&L and instead putting as part of the construction costs. This is something minorities should. Make note of. The cost of construction costs would be substantially higher with the debt interest added on the plant expansion. Please do your research and understand the so called interest and cost transfer
1 day ago
LC Titan down 5 sen today so DividendGuy67 portfolio still make new high(many of his posts comprise his portfolios make new high) today?
1 day ago
Hi cheated. Yes, with KLCI up, majority of my stocks went up, to offset the reds and yes, my portfolio made new all time high again today, even with LCTITAN down 5 sen.
That is the beauty of a highly diversified above average quality businesses. No one single stock dominates.
Unfortunately, i3 has deleted all references to my blog. That's fine since I blog mostly for my own future reading and future reference. It reduces my sharing but I respect i3's wishes.
Whilst LCTITAN drop 5 sen, my other stock UOADEV went up 5 sen and I own more shares there than in LCTITAN, hence, that helps. But it's now behaving as I expect, so, curious to see how much lower LCTITAN can get. Times like this, as it approaches accumulation zone, this is an opportunity.
1 day ago
All time low 0.975. Traders will be eyeing price action near here.
Given the downward momentum (huge fear), my tembak sense say maybe 50:50 chance we may see a new low, if RM1 round number support doesn't hold.
Apparently, market likes to make new low to trigger traders stop losses below there. I don't know and don't care.
If it does get there, then, maybe got some chance we might see capitulation i.e. big drop down fast and recover fast. This is because today's candle length is longer with bigger volume.
So, the question for this week is will tomorrow be even longer red candle with even bigger volume?
Traders love capitulation because this is when you make fast monies as a trader.
1 day ago
Technically still negative. Strong possibilities of Lctitan testing new low below 95 sen. A few IBs have put the TP at 90 sen based on widening losses for 2 ND quarter assumption. For momentum day traders try not to catch a falling knives . Lctitan not for trading prepared to hold 1 or 2 years till the plant is completed
16 hours ago
There must be a strong reason or compelling factor LG Korea have decided to dispose off their subsidiary LCTITAN which they have invested
12 hours ago
They are not telling us except for the standard reply. Weak demand and over supply
12 hours ago
My accumulation order at 1.00 was filled. Basically bought nearly 40% of what I previously sold at 1.4x. I didn’t buy 100% because a larger part of me expects more downtrend. This is part of a longer term strategy. Not expecting anything to happen in near term except for lower prices.
11 hours ago
Best of luck to you.... Bro. Need to stay away and see whether the IB jokers TP price prediction of 90 sen can materialised
10 hours ago
Thanks Plantermen. I'm indifferent to the outcome of this one trade, as I own many stocks.
Still, today closed at 1.00 with almost equal volume as yesterday. 4 red days. Usually, 5th day should be red (majority odds). However, today was not capitulation but slowing down, with only 2 sen from Open to Close. Not common to see a big capitulation after today's move down.
So, if extend, majority odds tomorrow might see 98 sen. My position here is still significantly underweighted at around 2.36% of portfolio (target is 3%), as my total portfolio made new all time high again today! Expected as KLCI is strong, to land at 1605!
4 hours ago
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DividendGuy67
So, I only have 1 key rule. Don't lose money.
Means what?
Means don't average down blindly when you are losing.
If you don't average down, you'll never have big losses.
And if you learn how to fish yourself, in a year, I find 50 ideas quite easily. 1 wrong idea, still got 49 other ideas. My actual win rate is in the region of 85%+. I include LCTITAN since despite entering at RM2, my average cost is now RM1.14 and since today closed RM1.15, it's a win!!!
With the positive bias from a decent dividend yield portfolio, plus a win rate much higher than lose rate, plus never ever lose big from any one trade, your portfolio is just going to make new highs quite regularly. The goal is to beat EPF by 1%-2% but in reality exceeding this significantly more. So, it's not exciting. It's kind of boring. So many others make much, much larger % gains. But I can invest much bigger $ in this. Scaleable. Same strategy whether 5 digit, 6 digit, or 7 digit. Hopefully can keep doing this for long periods of time, to keep accumulating higher than EPF rate. It's subconscious for me now for a few years already.
2 months ago