PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD
KLSE (MYR): PMETAL (8869)
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Last Price
4.70
Today's Change
-0.06 (1.26%)
Day's Change
4.68 - 4.76
Trading Volume
4,314,900
Meeting
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Discussions
18 people like this. Showing 50 of 15,607 comments
1.Press Metal (PM) the world largest aluminium producer and a great company has a spectacular fall from 740 to 540. It is on a major downtrend and continues to accelerate in its decline. This is an astounding setback for many die hard and determined devotees of PM. However, considering that the EPS of PMetal is only 15.2sen, so at 740 it was trading at 48x price earning. This is incredible and unbelievably over price. Therefore, the collapse is not surprising, in fact it is expected. And what Buffett would say it is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. And PM aptly fits Buffett's investment description at this moment in time.
2.Technically speaking PM is on the 5th leg of a major down trend. Its 1st leg was down from 740 to 600 that was minus 140. The 2nd leg which was a retracement up leg from 600 to 660 was up 60sen. The 3rd leg was a continuation of its fall from 660 to 480 that was minus 180sen and in the 4th leg it had retracted back from 480 to 550 that was 70sen. PM is now on the final 5th leg of decline. Just 3 days ago it was 540 and this morning it is 502 and continues to show signs of active selling with its price trending and accelerating downward.
3.what can happen next?
5th leg is the final leg of decline. when this is completed, it will go into consolidation before a new pattern and trend would appear again.
In the meanwhile If 1st and 3rd leg are observed as a guild than, it is not unrealistic to see PM would decline from 550 with a quantum of fall between 140sen which is the 1st leg and 180sen the 2nd leg
If we take 550 minus 140 that would mean 410sen
4.Does it make any sense or are we bias and what does it means PM trading at 410?
Let us do a quick PE comparison and evaluation.
Considering that the FTSE Composite Index recorded a monthly P/E ratio of 15.58x on MAY 2022 and PMetal has an earning per share EPS of 15.2sen and hence, at 410sen PMetal will trade at 410 / 15.2 = 27x price earning compare to market PE of 15.58x. Therefore at 410 and if it happens it is still trading at an impressive PE and a huge premium as compare to market PE. Therefore it is not unrealistically unachievable. It is possible and a near certainty.
5.SHARE valuation is an art and not engineering science. Therefore PMetal hitting 410 is purely hypothetical and a personal and individual perception. No one can predict that it will fall to this level and much less when this will happen.
6. Nonetheless, PM now has more than 11m shares under SBL according to the announcement on Bursa. It is this group of people who engages in securities borrowing and lending has a great interest in PM.
7. They are determined to see it continues to fall and profits from it.
3 weeks ago
Warnings has been given so obvious... Commodity prices got no place to hide at high level when Fed hike interest rates and shrinking balance sheet (QT). High inflation is the consequences of unlimited QE. rather than the real demand. Cheap money chasing commodity lor.
3 weeks ago
CPI 8.6% already! No more chances pausing of rate hike in July 22. All the way hitting 3% by the year end?
3 weeks ago
buy more PMBTech (silicon metal producer) n hold long term! d share price is grossly undervalue now n trading below d 4:1 bonus issue price (around 3.55 ex-date)!
3 weeks ago
Hike interest rate 3% could be a disaster to the market. No more cheap money and many companies would go burst soon. More share margin players will cut their stakes in equities to reduce financing costs.
2 weeks ago
Result was v good but going forward with increasing material, labour and interest rate cost how
2 weeks ago
Someone say their debt is financed in low interest rate wor. nothing to worry. but never think of future financing. i dont know la. up to them.
==
thesteward
Result was v good but going forward with increasing material, labour and interest rate cost how
2 weeks ago
齐力（PMETAL）（股东大会）
简报：由于营业额增加以及联营公司的贡献增加，比较去年，集团的税前盈利大增120.4%至14.4亿令吉。这被上升的营运成本和每年5000万令吉的州销售税所抵消。
提问：随着Samalaju第三期冶炼厂（P3）在2021年10月投产以后，集团在2022年的产量将更加高。
集团正进一步提升增值能力和其挤压产品组合，旨在增加在消费相关产品行业的市占率（年报第24页）。
a）请问集团之前和目前的生产量是多少？
b）2022年的产量目标是多少？
c）提升增值能力和其挤压产品组合的进展如何？集团在增加消费相关产品行业的市占率是否顺利？
2 weeks ago
very smart people here, when shares up keep quiet. when down, only come out from hole.
2 weeks ago
Where is the hope? DJ is on the way to 28.5k and hitting 26k by year end lor.
2 weeks ago
Fed going all the way to tame inflation and many retailers terstuck again at 5.10 to 4.80 last week when drop from 5.50plus I guess sigh
1 week ago
high valuation & high debt companies cannot sustain in high interest environment. Fed might increase interest to 3.4% by year end. Malaysia will be at least 4.5%. good luck
1 week ago
If FED hike interest rates to 3.4% by the year end, market is bound to collapse. Cap to 3.0% is good enough.
1 week ago
run, this is like glove... run boy, run
better lose 10 or 20% than to lose 90% like glove supporters
1 week ago
Exactly. Don’t say impossible. Anything is possible in the market. Harta is 2.8 now. Way below pre covid price
1 week ago
WAh many retailer trap again when averaging down from 5.20 to 4.80 later retailers could average down again 4.50
1 week ago
At first I thought I'd want to Q at least at 4.50 but MorningStar Fair Value of this stock is only as high as 0.3911, with only two stars rating, so I'd now rather Q at 3.92. Current price is clearly far overrated.
1 week ago
Yeap, high valuation counter cannot sustain. just a matter of time for it to burst
1 week ago
Glove 2.0, run before too late. Run now lose 20% or stay and lose until 90% like Glove supporters. Your choice. Good luck.
1 week ago
World recession is knocking the door already. This time could be hard landing. People said that Las Vegas is now almost like a ghost town wor...
1 week ago
Aluminium close to one year low but pmetal price stil far from one year low …..
1 day ago
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davors
already on downtrend.
may back to 4.00.
3 weeks ago