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LCTITAN - Accumulated at RM1

DividendGuy67
Publish date: Sat, 18 May 2024, 08:21 AM

My last blog post on LCTITAN here.

By and large, I'm a long term dividend investor following Warren Buffet principles.  Most of my gains come from price and dividend gains on sizeable position sizes that makes a difference to my life, across a highly diversified sound dividend stocks.  This has proven to work for me for over 3 decades.

However, there was a long period spanning nearly 2 decade in between when I was a technical trader.  To cut a long story short, whilst a vast majority of trading ideas that is sold and popularised out there didn't beat investing over the long term (after factoring in trading losses, commissions, expenses), however, I did discover a few that worked. 

One of them combines fundamentals + turnaround plays + technical opening gap fills.  And LCTITAN is one of these ideas I currently have a position in.  It's not a quick win approach (although sometimes, we are lucky and the win is super quick).   For me, this style fits me as it allows me to not be close to markets, allow me to spend much of my time at my gainful employment and with my family, such that I only need to glance a few seconds a day after work, to check if this idea has come to fruition or not.  It is almost as low maintenance as dividend investing. 

A word of caution - there is no single trading idea that is 100% guaranteed or perfect.  If there was, I would not be sharing with you for free, and I would be using it quietly for my own benefit.  Since it's not full-proof, I allocate 2%-3% of my capital, to trade this idea, and at 1.04, my position is currently still slightly under-water.  For the record, 2%-3% capital for a trading position is extremely large for me - most of the time, I would be trading 1/10th of this size.

This chart and my previous articles says it all.  The information on fundamentals, turnaround, etc. can be found there.

If you don't catch it, ignore it.

My immediate price target (which can take weeks, months or even over 1-2 years) is for price to eventually close the last unresolved opening gap fill at 1.46.  I accumulated at RM1, and if it gets there in 1 year, that's 46% returns.  If it takes 2 years, that's 21% CAGR.  If it takes 3 years, that's 13% CAGR.  If it takes less than a year, that's a huge bonus.   

We will come back to this chart in 1, 2 and 3 years later to see if the opening gap fills are eventually resolved or not.

LCTITAN is recently listed (2017), so, it's hard to tell, but since listing, current price looks like there is a chance it could be trying to print a massive long term "double bottom". first bottom during Covid low, and second bottom potentially around this time (+/- a few months??).

Cheers!

Disclaimer:  As usual, you are fully responsible for your own investment decisions.

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2 people like this. Showing 2 of 2 comments

DividendGuy67

A few comments:

1. Technical analysis alone, has lower win rate. Simply because you can have 2 stocks printing the same chart set-up, but they have different businesses ranging from sound businesses to "goreng" stocks. So, if you want an easier trade, avoid the latter.

2. LCTITAN has sunk billions of good cash into expansion the past 3 years. However, Mr Market became more pessimistic, to the point that today, it values each RM1 cash invested at only 20 sen. It's low, but nobody knows if it's the bottom.

3. If price continues to fall, you will see worse news and worse financials reported AFTER price falls. The problem of speculating too big is that your hands are weaker. Weak hands tend to panic when price goes into a new downtrend, printing lower lows. The lower highs then play their emotions like violin - like a fisherman toying with a catch - pull them in (with lower highs), then let them go to panic (with lower lows), etc - to make them feel trapped to make them become desperate. And if you have a weak banker, suddenly, what was originally just a technical factor turns into a real fundamental business factor, to cause the business to go bust. By this stage, because you bet too big and trapped, you cannot get out. Therefore, for this type of plays, never bet the farm.

4. Nevertheless, with P/NTA of only 0.2 times, when it turn around, the rewards will easily beat KLCI returns. LCTITAN is now looking like a coiled spring that has been wound up even more tightly with each price fall. So, when it turns, there will be an incredibly strong fundamental tailwind. Combined with FOMO, the move up could be fast and strong. So fast, you might not catch it. Especially if you're like me who has a full time work and family life. A long green candle one day will put you off from jumping in.

5. 1.46 is only the first of many potential gap fills. There are higher gap fills shown in the chart. Therefore, I will never sell 100% at 1.46. Always leave something behind for higher gap fills. Nothing is impossible, even the upside.

6. To avoid watching markets, you may set a GTC sell order at 1.46, slightly below that, or slightly higher than that. Then, you don't need to monitor markets.

2024-05-18 09:35

TheAlphaTrader

@DividendGuy... Good write up! looks like a good trade setup with excellent risk to reward proposition!

2024-05-19 21:08

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