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Position Trading Idea - MAGNUM

DividendGuy67
Publish date: Mon, 20 May 2024, 03:30 PM

We know we are in a bull market when my diversified portfolio keeps making new all time highs.  This month alone, it has made new all time highs for 10 different days.  With the index so strong, I am quite sure many investors are having similar experiences. 

The (good) "problem" with dividend investing is that it tend to generate cash, where in the early stages of the bull market, I feel FOMO.  How can we utilize the cash?

One way is Position Trading.  For clarity of mind, I chose a different stock that I haven't owned before.  This is just a personal preference, so that the accounting of the wins/loss in the P&L account is clearer.

I just blogged about SPTOTO, so, its cousin MAGNUM looks like a laggard that hasn't yet moved.

So, this is a position trading idea, and not an investing position, and so, I have a stop loss for MAGNUM.

Position Trade Idea

Position Size = 0.8% capital.  (a small portion of cash, otherwise this is cash sitting idle in FD earning 3%+ waiting for market correction that likely won't come till FYE2025).
Actual Entry = 1.16. (yes, I chased, since it's trading).
Stop Loss just below the low i.e. 0.99.  Risk = 1.16-0.99 = 17 sen = 0.12% capital.
Target Price = 38.2% Fibonacci.  Reward = 1.71 - 1.16 = 55 sen = 0.38% capital.
Reward/Risk = 55 / 17 = 3.2 to 1 and is worth taking.
Expected time-frame = by FYE2025.  Expected holding period from 1 to 17 months.
Dividend Yield whilst waiting = 6 sen / 1.16 = 5.2% per annum (better than FD).  As the time-frame is for another 17 months, this is the smaller effect - the goal is to capture the price gains.

Other thoughts - if this trade turns out a loss, likely the current bull market is not real.  This is not my expectation, hence, expect to win before FYE2025.  Documenting for future reference. 

Disclaimer:  

1. Risk is real, since this stock hasn't run up like SPTOTO.  Fundamentalists will say something's broken with MAGNUM.  TA traders don't care about fundamentals or reasons, just the trade.
2. As always, you are fully responsible for your investing and trading decisions.

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