The coming PRU definitely will be the toughest fight btw BN and opposition coalition, PH. Whoever win the election the different in parliament seats likely to be very closed. The Malay votes likely to be the determine factor. From all the years, BN won, especiallty in the latest 2 PRU, Malay voters play a critical role. However, in the coming PRU this scenario may change, mainly due to M factor. Why I say so? Let take a look at the past analysis on PRU from year 1974 to year 2013, u would see  a better picture. 

- The no of parliament seats (PS) up from 154 to now 222. In btw, SPR made many changes like re-draw constituency and increased no of seats. However, stat data indicated that in long run would only benefit the opposition party. BN is finding hard to retain approx 130-140 PS. More so, when opposition form a coalition to fight with BN in last 2 elections. All the opposition parties saw their no of PS increased btw 80-200%+

-  From the analysis, the obvious killing factor for UMNO in the past was when there was split within the party. The party lost appprox. 15-20% in both parliament seats and % of voters when s46 and Anwar left the party. In the coming PRU, UMNO expects to suffer another big blow from DR M. The reason is very simple:

a. In PRU12 (Yr 2008), UNMO suffers big lost with no of parliament seats down from 109 to 79. However, when Dr M compaign for UMNO in RU13 (YR 2013), even BN facing big tsunami from Chinese voters but the no of parliament seats won by Umno saw an increased 9 from 79 to 88

b. Dr M has the ability to break through Umno last stronghold, Felda. Last 2 weeks saw big crowd turnout for the political talk given by Dr M. 

c. The ability of Dr M appoint Badawi to be PM and later forced him to step down and then replaced by Najib. None of the past Umno leader able to so. He is just like another LKY in Spore. 

I foresee the impact to Umno is even bigger this time round judging from the above development. If S46 and Anwar able to swing approx 15-25% (from usual 45-47% down to 35-39%) of Umno votes, what do u think about Dr M?