Important time-tested proven market rules or tips
Supermx - Projected Q1 2021 result updated on 6/10/2020
OTB
Publish date: Thu, 08 Oct 2020, 01:24 PM
Dear valued readers,
| Recent | From high | From low | ||||
| Stock | High | Current | % drop | Low | % down | 20% up |
| Mercator | 548.00 | 514.00 | 6.2% | 256.00 | 53.3% | 307.20 |
| Topglov | 9.76 | 8.64 | 11.5% | 6.11 | 37.4% | 7.33 |
| Supermx | 12.20 | 9.23 | 24.3% | 5.68 | 53.4% | 6.82 |
Performance of Mercator WA
- The share price of Mercator was at first peak at 400.00 on 28/7/2020.
- The share price went down south to the recent low of 256.00 on 7/8/2020.
- The share price rebounded to 396.00 on 3/9/2020.
- The share price went through a correction again and managed to close at 388.00 on 18/9/2020.
- The chart pattern is called "Cup And Handle Formation".
- The share price crossed 400.00 on 24/9/2020 and closed at 411.00.
- The share price hit an all time high at 548 on 6/10/2020.
- The share price had increased from 5.17 to a high of 548.00 in 2020, up 10,500% in 2020 YTD.
-
Please go to this link to open the chart. https://www.investing.
com/equities/mercator-wa
Performance of all glove stocks in 2020
Glove Share Price Ranking
- Mercator WA up 10,500%
- Careplus up 4,484%
- HLT up 3,330%
- UG Healthcare up 2,646%
- Supermax up 1,806%
- Rubberex 1,502%
- VIP Gloves up 1240%
- Intco Medical 1,217%
- Comfort 1,213%
- Riverstone up 720%
- Topglov up 697%
- Kossan up 487%
- Hartalega up 417%
- Sri Trang up 364%
- Blue Sail up 322%
- Semperit up 283%
- Ansell up 206%.
What is the TA chart of Supermx telling us ?
- The share price of Supermx peaked at 12.22 on 7/8/2020.
- The share price went down south to a low of 7.95 on 17/8/2020.
- The share price rebounded to 11.68 on 1/9/2020.
- The share price went through a correction again and hit a recent low of 5.68 on 10/9/2020.
- The share price was up on 11/9/2020 on technical rebound, the share price managed to close at 8.59 on 25/9/2020.
- The share price crossed 20-day EMA convincingly on 25/9/2020 and closed at 8.59.
- All indicators are displaying a buy signal for Supermx after the share price closed above 8.51.
- The chart pattern of Supermx will be almost the same as Mercator except the share price is lagging 1 week to 10 days behind Mercator WA.
- I expect the share price of Supermx to hit 12.20 again before the Q1 2021 result is out.
- The share price of Supermx had increased from 0.64 to a new high of 12.20 in 2020, up 1,806% in 2020 YTD.
- Enclosed is the technical chart of Supermx for your perusal.
- The share price of Supermx is at the beginning of Wave 3 of a Primary Wave 3. I believe the share price just completed Wave 2 of a Primary Wave 3 on 22/9/2020.
- I believe the share prices will continue to hit new highs until you cannot believe it if the share price is confirmed to be in Primary Wave 3.
- Parabolic SAR buy signal is just appearing to confirm the uptrend had started effective from 24/9/2020.
- MACD buy signal just appeared in the chart on 25/9/2020 after the share price crossed 8.51 convincingly.
Projected PAT in Q1 2021 result of Supermx
| Q4 2020 result of Supermx | ||||||
| Revenue = 929 million, Monthly Revenue | 310 | |||||
| PBT = 519 million, Monthly PBT | 173 | |||||
| Monthly Manufacturing cost | 137 | |||||
| From analyst briefing slides dated 11/8/2020 | ||||||
| Assume monthly manufacturing cost increases 15% | 158 | |||||
| Assume additional 3.3 billion capacity increase (15%). | 356 | |||||
| July month price increases 15% | ||||||
| Revenue = 356*1.15 | 409 | |||||
| PBT = 356*1.15-158 | 251 | |||||
| August month price increases 30% | ||||||
| Revenue = 409*1.30 | 532 | |||||
| PBT = 409*1.30-158 | 374 | |||||
| September month price increases 30% | ||||||
| Revenue = 532*1.30 | 692 | |||||
| PBT = 532*1.3-158 | 534 | |||||
| Total PBT (Q1 2021) | 1159 | |||||
| Less 25% tax | 290 | |||||
| PAT | 869 | |||||
| PAT 120 million carried forward from Q4 2020 | 120 | |||||
| Total PAT (Q1 2021) | 989 | |||||
My strategy
- Compared against the performance of Mercator WA, the share price of Supermx is really underperformed. I hope the share price of Supermx can catch up in the next 20 days.
- During the analyst briefing after the Q4 2020 result is out, all analysts are informed that 150 million PBT or 120 million PAT was not captured in time for the Q4 2020 result. This amount is carried forward to Q1 2021.
- In the month of July 2020, the selling price of the glove increased by 15%.
- In August and September 2020, the selling price of gloves increased by 30%.
- I believe Q1 2021 result will be better than Q4 2020.
- Look at the outstanding performance on Q2 2020 result of Shandong Intco Medical Product Company Ltd in China, I believe Q1 2021 result of Supermx will be very outstanding.
- The most important criteria for the share price of stock to go up north is the growth of PAT or EPS. There is a strong growth in PAT in Q1 2021 result.
- According to my calculation, PAT in Q1 2021 result is 989 million. I used the same method to calculate Q4 2020 result of Topglov, my projection is 24% lower than the actual PAT of Topglov achieved in Q4 2020 result.
- Based on technical chart reading, my first target price of Supermx is at 12.20 to be achieved before Q1 2021 result is out. I believe Q1 2021 result to be released will be good in view of price increase of 15%, 30% and 30% of the glove prices in the month of July, August and September 2020 respectively.
- I believe the Q1 2021 result will be released in October 2020. The management of Topglov can release Q3 2020 result in 11 days, I believe the management of Supermx can release Q1 2021 in 30 days.
- I recommend holding on to the share until Q1 2021 result is out.
- I have checked many times, I believe all my assumptions stated above are achievable. Please wait for the Q1 2021 result to be released and let us verify the performance on the share price of Supermx.
- I will review the performance of Supermx again after Q1 2021 result is out. It is pointless to project a high target price which is not achievable in a short term period.
Special note
This article is meant for sharing of information only, it is not a buy or sell recommendation.
Thank you.
OTB
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人
Disclaimer :
Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative.
The final decision to buy is always yours.
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Discussions
43 people like this. Showing 33 of 36 comments
The previous rebate was funded from KWIE. I guess the same for coming rebate. Anyone care to reaffirm?
2020-10-08 13:51
So genrous of you to share. It is based on facts not feeling. Based on what I see this is a very conservative PAT. I hope it will be higher just like TG
2020-10-08 14:14
Mr OTB, thanks for the great sharing and reassurance ! Supermax- just waiting for you to fly
2020-10-08 14:42
The company listed with a very small no of share issued of 10 million.
Can be easily manipulated especially during this theme play.
2020-10-08 16:46
You should compare with something similar like Sri Trang glove where the production are in Thailand as well.
2020-10-08 16:46
people who are color blind can't differentiate apple from oranges. They are good at copy and paste...Beware
2020-10-08 17:02
If Supermax has only 10 mil shares, the share price today would be above RM2,500 post bonus issue based on today's market capitalisation.
Why compare Mercator vs Supermax?
And not with other smaller players like Careplus would be a closer comparison as the production capacity is below 5 billion.
2020-10-08 17:12
Supermx only torward a 1 way up direction till kiss $12.70 (time it hit the above OTB sir s projection)
Or, at super climax level of 18.70 ?
Am i too whishful ?
2020-10-08 18:29
misleading projection, analyst looking at rm500m only, cimb forecast less than rm2b, better sell, if not disappointing
2020-10-08 18:47
Thank you for sharing, Mr Ooi, sir. Always look forward to your articles. Am all in and will stay invested. Both for my retirement and my children's future.
2020-10-09 08:39
Don't do that. Invest within your mean. I respect Sifu OTB very much. Remember this : All investmnets carried risks. No sure win in the market.
-----------
Daniel Yong Thank you for sharing, Mr Ooi, sir. Always look forward to your articles. Am all in and will stay invested. Both for my retirement and my children's future.
09/10/2020 8:39 AM
2020-10-09 17:00
sold my old house for this Supermax counter hopefully it will fly and bring me 2 houses back !!!
2020-10-10 21:33
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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OTB sifu...as always respect for the great guru. Liked.
2020-10-08 13:29